Good morning.
New week at the CBOT has started with mixed/lower prices, with soybeans shedding some of last week’s Gulf hurricane premium as operations return to normal. Today’s quarterly stocks/small grains report will obviously be the main topic of the day from a data standpoint, but traders and producers will also be curious as to what this afternoon’s harvest progress update shows following a few wet days in the east last week. Early yield reports continue to be generally good, but there has been a consistent theme of soybean moisture problems/oddities across most areas that will continue to be monitored. Corn futures this morning are trading a penny lower, soybean futures are down 3-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are quiet/lower to start the week, crude oil futures are trading 40-50 cents/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points, and the NSADQ is down 100 points.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed as of Tuesday, September 24th, managed money traders were net-short 130,699 contracts of corn (+4,115 on the week), net-short 74,978 contracts of soybeans (+47,436), and net-short 26,469 contracts of Chicago wheat (-1,438).
In soy products, funds are now net-long 58,259 contracts of soybean meal (+18,501 on the week), and net-short 18,856 contracts of soybean oil (+31,732).
Trade sees September 1 corn stocks in this morning’s report at 1.844 bil bu’s, soybean stocks at 0.351 bil bu’s, and wheat stocks at 1.973 bil bu’s. All three figures would be up from last year and would also be new four-year highs.
On the production side, 2023 corn production is estimated at 15.290 bil bu’s compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 15.342 bil bu’s, and 2023 soybean production is estimated at 4.164 bil bu’s compared to 4.165 bil currently. Current year wheat production is seen at 1.966 bil bu’s, compared to USDA’s 1.982 bil.
Grain terminal workers on Canada’s west coast reached a labor agreement over the weekend, ending a four-day strike and allowing crop exports to resume. Longshoremen at the Port of Montreal, however, are still set to begin their own three-day strike starting today.
The European Commission sees total grain production in the EU at 260.9 mmt’s, which is down from their August estimate of 264.5 mmt’s. Soft-wheat production is seen at 114.6 mmt’s, durum production was estimated at 7.2 mmt’s, barely production was estimated at 50.4 mmt’s, and corn production was estimated at 60.1 mmt’s.
US federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 28th was seen at 543 mil lbs., up 2.8% from last week. Beef production was seen at 524 mil lbs., up 0.7% from last week. For the year, pork production is up 1.6% and beef production is down 0.8%.
Israel over the weekend stepped up its missile attacks in areas of Lebanon, killing several key Hamas leaders, as well as Hassan Nasrallah, who was the leader of militant group Hezbollah.
The group’s new deputy leader, Naim Qassem, said in his first public address that they were prepared to confront any Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, a move many feels is on the horizon following the increased amount of missile strikes in the last week.
As mentioned last week, equity markets will be keyed this week by a pair of jobs reports on Tuesday and Friday, and also by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday.
On the other side of the world, Chinese stock markets continue to cheer recent stimulus moves announced by the government and PBOC; the country’s benchmark CSI300 index was up more than 8% on Monday, marking the ninth straight day of gains. Chinese traders will be out most of the rest of this week though for the Golden Week holiday.
Rainfall amounts through the southeastern Corn Belt were slightly heavier than expected from the remains of Helene over the weekend; 72-hour satellite data shows totals of up to 4″ in places through TN/KY and into S IL/S IN/S OH. The rest of the country held in a dry pattern.
Looking ahead to this week, models are in good agreement on a mostly dry forecast over the next 5 days, while a cold front sweeping through the eastern half of the country provides the potential for light showers the first part of the week. Both the EU and GFS are estimating rainfall totals for most of the area at 0.1″ or less.
On the temps side, the previously mentioned cold front provides a brief period of cooler weather in the east early this week, before ridging allows temps to return to more slightly above average levels into the end of the week and weekend. Generally speaking, highs are seen in the upper 60’s/lower 70’s early this week and are seen in the mid/upper 70’s by the end of the week.
Week-two forecasts saw very little update over the weekend. Models continue to see a below average precipitation bias for nearly the whole of the country into October 14th, while tropical storm activity in the Gulf keeps FL and areas along the east coast in a wetter pattern. Western Corn Belt dryness will be a growing concern barring a pattern shift over the next 10 days.
Satellite data in South America shows rains over the last 72 hours fell in parts of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso, which are areas further to the north that had previously been dry. Totals ranged from 0.05-2.5″ generally speaking.
Forecasts here continue to show a drier bias for most of Brazil and Argentina again this week, but still show better precipitation chances in the week two period. The trade will be closely monitoring over the next 2 to 3 weeks whether this prediction of better rainfall verifies. Temps stay mostly above average.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-30-2024
Good morning.
New week at the CBOT has started with mixed/lower prices, with soybeans shedding some of last week’s Gulf hurricane premium as operations return to normal. Today’s quarterly stocks/small grains report will obviously be the main topic of the day from a data standpoint, but traders and producers will also be curious as to what this afternoon’s harvest progress update shows following a few wet days in the east last week. Early yield reports continue to be generally good, but there has been a consistent theme of soybean moisture problems/oddities across most areas that will continue to be monitored. Corn futures this morning are trading a penny lower, soybean futures are down 3-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are quiet/lower to start the week, crude oil futures are trading 40-50 cents/bbl lower, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points, and the NSADQ is down 100 points.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of trader’s report showed as of Tuesday, September 24th, managed money traders were net-short 130,699 contracts of corn (+4,115 on the week), net-short 74,978 contracts of soybeans (+47,436), and net-short 26,469 contracts of Chicago wheat (-1,438).
In soy products, funds are now net-long 58,259 contracts of soybean meal (+18,501 on the week), and net-short 18,856 contracts of soybean oil (+31,732).
Trade sees September 1 corn stocks in this morning’s report at 1.844 bil bu’s, soybean stocks at 0.351 bil bu’s, and wheat stocks at 1.973 bil bu’s. All three figures would be up from last year and would also be new four-year highs.
On the production side, 2023 corn production is estimated at 15.290 bil bu’s compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 15.342 bil bu’s, and 2023 soybean production is estimated at 4.164 bil bu’s compared to 4.165 bil currently. Current year wheat production is seen at 1.966 bil bu’s, compared to USDA’s 1.982 bil.
Grain terminal workers on Canada’s west coast reached a labor agreement over the weekend, ending a four-day strike and allowing crop exports to resume. Longshoremen at the Port of Montreal, however, are still set to begin their own three-day strike starting today.
The European Commission sees total grain production in the EU at 260.9 mmt’s, which is down from their August estimate of 264.5 mmt’s. Soft-wheat production is seen at 114.6 mmt’s, durum production was estimated at 7.2 mmt’s, barely production was estimated at 50.4 mmt’s, and corn production was estimated at 60.1 mmt’s.
US federally inspected pork production in the week ending September 28th was seen at 543 mil lbs., up 2.8% from last week. Beef production was seen at 524 mil lbs., up 0.7% from last week. For the year, pork production is up 1.6% and beef production is down 0.8%.
Israel over the weekend stepped up its missile attacks in areas of Lebanon, killing several key Hamas leaders, as well as Hassan Nasrallah, who was the leader of militant group Hezbollah.
The group’s new deputy leader, Naim Qassem, said in his first public address that they were prepared to confront any Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, a move many feels is on the horizon following the increased amount of missile strikes in the last week.
As mentioned last week, equity markets will be keyed this week by a pair of jobs reports on Tuesday and Friday, and also by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to speak at the National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday.
On the other side of the world, Chinese stock markets continue to cheer recent stimulus moves announced by the government and PBOC; the country’s benchmark CSI300 index was up more than 8% on Monday, marking the ninth straight day of gains. Chinese traders will be out most of the rest of this week though for the Golden Week holiday.
Rainfall amounts through the southeastern Corn Belt were slightly heavier than expected from the remains of Helene over the weekend; 72-hour satellite data shows totals of up to 4″ in places through TN/KY and into S IL/S IN/S OH. The rest of the country held in a dry pattern.
Looking ahead to this week, models are in good agreement on a mostly dry forecast over the next 5 days, while a cold front sweeping through the eastern half of the country provides the potential for light showers the first part of the week. Both the EU and GFS are estimating rainfall totals for most of the area at 0.1″ or less.
On the temps side, the previously mentioned cold front provides a brief period of cooler weather in the east early this week, before ridging allows temps to return to more slightly above average levels into the end of the week and weekend. Generally speaking, highs are seen in the upper 60’s/lower 70’s early this week and are seen in the mid/upper 70’s by the end of the week.
Week-two forecasts saw very little update over the weekend. Models continue to see a below average precipitation bias for nearly the whole of the country into October 14th, while tropical storm activity in the Gulf keeps FL and areas along the east coast in a wetter pattern. Western Corn Belt dryness will be a growing concern barring a pattern shift over the next 10 days.
Satellite data in South America shows rains over the last 72 hours fell in parts of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso, which are areas further to the north that had previously been dry. Totals ranged from 0.05-2.5″ generally speaking.
Forecasts here continue to show a drier bias for most of Brazil and Argentina again this week, but still show better precipitation chances in the week two period. The trade will be closely monitoring over the next 2 to 3 weeks whether this prediction of better rainfall verifies. Temps stay mostly above average.
Have a great day.
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