Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are quiet/mixed to start the first trading day in the month of October. Yesterday’s USDA data showed a slightly tighter corn situation than the trade was anticipating, but otherwise did little to alter pre-existing trade themes that were at the forefront before the report’s release. In the short-term, the biggest driver of price looks to become South American weather, especially as the US harvest reaches the 50% mark in the next couple weeks. We also expect managed money to not add a lot of new positions before the Presidential election next month, which will possibly act to keep market volatility low. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 7-8 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down 40-60 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around 60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 10 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update showed corn harvest progress as of Sunday, the 29th, at 21% complete, which was slightly lower than the trade had expected but still 3% ahead of the five-year average. G/EX conditions were down 1% on the week to 64%.
Southern states continue to account for most of the progress; in the I-states, Iowa was 11% complete (+6%), Illinois was 21% complete (+7%), and Indiana was 20% complete (+8%). Iowa is equal to the five-year average while Illinois and Indiana are 5% and 7% ahead of average respectively.
Soybean harvest was seen at 26% complete, which was double last week’s reading and 8% ahead of the five-year average. G/EX ratings, like corn, were seen at 64%, which was unchanged on the week.
At the state level, Delta states continue to lead the harvest charge, with Louisiana 71% complete and Mississippi 66% complete; for the I-states, Iowa is 27% harvested (+18%), Illinois is 24% harvested (+9%), and Indiana is 23% harvested (+7%).
75% of the corn crop was seen as mature, compared to the five-year average of 70%, while 81% of the soybean crop was estimated to be dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 73%.
In wheat, winter wheat planting was estimated at 39% complete this week, up from 25% last week and compared to the five-year average of 38%. Emergence was seen at 14%, up from 4% last week and compared to the five-year average of 13%.
Dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike this morning at dozens of ports across the Gulf and east coast of the US as labor negotiations failed to yield any progress in recent days. Workers are demanding a 77% wage increase.
Israeli soldiers entered southern Lebanon overnight in what the IDF is defining as ‘targeted ground raids.’ Officials say the incursion will be ‘limited’ as they do not expect to push deep into the territory or hold areas for a very long time. The US and western world continue to call for restraint as the conflict nears the one-year mark on October 7th.
Jerome Powell, speaking at an economic conference in Nashville yesterday, made comments that the Fed would continue easing interest rates over time, but that the committee did not feel like it was in a hurry to make the cuts quickly. He added the economy was in ‘solid shape.’
Tonight, Vice Presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance will have their first, and possibly only, debate of this year’s election season at 9pm eastern time in New York.
Not a lot of change again to the US weather forecast overnight. This week continues to be mostly dry across the majority of the Corn Belt, with any rains seen light and limited to the east. Temps will be coolest across the Midwest today/tomorrow, before temps return to slightly above average levels going into the weekend and the first part of next week.
No updates to the week-two runs either, as all three of the CPC, EU ensemble model, and GFS ensemble model are in good agreement on a dry central US, while the Gulf and East Coast stay active.
Satellite data shows rains fell in the northeastern part of Brazil yesterday, while the rest of Argentina and southern Brazil were mostly dry. Not a lot of forecast updates here either, as models continue to show improved moisture chances into the second week of October.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-01-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are quiet/mixed to start the first trading day in the month of October. Yesterday’s USDA data showed a slightly tighter corn situation than the trade was anticipating, but otherwise did little to alter pre-existing trade themes that were at the forefront before the report’s release. In the short-term, the biggest driver of price looks to become South American weather, especially as the US harvest reaches the 50% mark in the next couple weeks. We also expect managed money to not add a lot of new positions before the Presidential election next month, which will possibly act to keep market volatility low. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 7-8 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is trading either side of unchanged, and soybean oil is down 40-60 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around 60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 100 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 10 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update showed corn harvest progress as of Sunday, the 29th, at 21% complete, which was slightly lower than the trade had expected but still 3% ahead of the five-year average. G/EX conditions were down 1% on the week to 64%.
Southern states continue to account for most of the progress; in the I-states, Iowa was 11% complete (+6%), Illinois was 21% complete (+7%), and Indiana was 20% complete (+8%). Iowa is equal to the five-year average while Illinois and Indiana are 5% and 7% ahead of average respectively.
Soybean harvest was seen at 26% complete, which was double last week’s reading and 8% ahead of the five-year average. G/EX ratings, like corn, were seen at 64%, which was unchanged on the week.
At the state level, Delta states continue to lead the harvest charge, with Louisiana 71% complete and Mississippi 66% complete; for the I-states, Iowa is 27% harvested (+18%), Illinois is 24% harvested (+9%), and Indiana is 23% harvested (+7%).
75% of the corn crop was seen as mature, compared to the five-year average of 70%, while 81% of the soybean crop was estimated to be dropping leaves, compared to the five-year average of 73%.
In wheat, winter wheat planting was estimated at 39% complete this week, up from 25% last week and compared to the five-year average of 38%. Emergence was seen at 14%, up from 4% last week and compared to the five-year average of 13%.
Dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike this morning at dozens of ports across the Gulf and east coast of the US as labor negotiations failed to yield any progress in recent days. Workers are demanding a 77% wage increase.
Israeli soldiers entered southern Lebanon overnight in what the IDF is defining as ‘targeted ground raids.’ Officials say the incursion will be ‘limited’ as they do not expect to push deep into the territory or hold areas for a very long time. The US and western world continue to call for restraint as the conflict nears the one-year mark on October 7th.
Jerome Powell, speaking at an economic conference in Nashville yesterday, made comments that the Fed would continue easing interest rates over time, but that the committee did not feel like it was in a hurry to make the cuts quickly. He added the economy was in ‘solid shape.’
Tonight, Vice Presidential nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance will have their first, and possibly only, debate of this year’s election season at 9pm eastern time in New York.
Not a lot of change again to the US weather forecast overnight. This week continues to be mostly dry across the majority of the Corn Belt, with any rains seen light and limited to the east. Temps will be coolest across the Midwest today/tomorrow, before temps return to slightly above average levels going into the weekend and the first part of next week.
No updates to the week-two runs either, as all three of the CPC, EU ensemble model, and GFS ensemble model are in good agreement on a dry central US, while the Gulf and East Coast stay active.
Satellite data shows rains fell in the northeastern part of Brazil yesterday, while the rest of Argentina and southern Brazil were mostly dry. Not a lot of forecast updates here either, as models continue to show improved moisture chances into the second week of October.
Have a great day.
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