Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT have started Wednesday the same way they ended Tuesday, as soybeans are unchanged/slightly lower, and the corn and wheat markets are higher and have taken out yesterday’s highs. Key today for Dec corn is whether it will be able to close above it’s 100-day moving average for the first time in months after closing right on it yesterday; that level today is at 4.28 3/8. Same level for Nov beans is at 10.75 3/8 today, which also makes it the short-term upside target. Like we said yesterday, the fundamental story in wheat (which spills over into corn) is bullish on Russian weather that is not improving, as well as a continually declining EU crop that seemingly gets smaller every week; but we would offer a word of caution at current price levels as charts become overbought and run into long-term resistance levels. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-5 cents higher, soybean futures are around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down roughly $9/ton, and soybean oil is up 80-90 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are trading around $2.50/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is down 130 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both 10 points lower. Crude took out yesterday’s highs as Middle East tensions continue to influence prices here.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending September 27th is expected to show daily production in a range of .980-1.024 mil bbls, while ethanol stocks are seen between 23.20-23.774 mil bbls.
Private US ag group StoneX, on Tuesday, released new corn and soybean crop estimates for the US; they see the corn crop at 15.222 bil bu’s with an avg yield of 184 bu/acre, and they see the soybean crop at 4.613 bil bu’s with an avg yield of 53.5 bu/acre. These compare to their estimates last month of 15.127 bil bu’s and 4.575 bil bu’s respectively.
Same group also gave new monthly estimates of the crops in Brazil; soybean production was estimated at 165.03 mmt’s, which was unchanged from last month, while first corn production was estimated at 24.87 mmt’s, down slightly from last month’s 24.96 mmt’s.
USDA on Tuesday afternoon estimated US soybean crush in the month of August at 168 mil bu, and also estimated the amount of corn used for ethanol in the same month at 473 mil bu. To view the full reports, please click here.
Details continue to roll out following yesterday’s Iranian missile attack on Israel; officials estimate some 180 missiles were fired, with sides reporting varied levels of success; IDF (Israeli Defense Force) spokespeople say the majority of the missiles were intercepted, while Iran claims more than 90% of the projectiles hit their targets.
Iran early on Wednesday said the attack had ended, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as officials from the US, vowed the move would carry consequences. It is also being reported that US forces assisted in shooting down some of the missiles that were fired.
Last night’s Vice Presidential debate, likely the last ahead of the election next month, was described as relatively civil compared to the interactions between Trump and Harris in recent weeks; the two men exchanged mostly candid remarks, and thanked each other several times throughout the night.
There are no updates as of this writing this morning on the longshoremen port worker strike that started on Tuesday. In a now viral video online, head of the Longshoremen’s Association Harold Daggett says his men want a wage increase, as well as assurances that they would not loose jobs to ‘automation.’
Not a lot to talk about on the weather front this morning as forecasts for the Midwest continue to be unchanged over the next week. Dry conditions prevail for nearly the whole of the country over the next 10-15 days, while temps hold in a mostly mild pattern; there will be brief bouts of cooler air, but the overall forecast remains warmer than average for October.
Models are picking up on additional tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico in the October 7/8/9 time period, but the storm is not currently being forecast to make its way into the southeastern US as was the case with Francine and Helene. This is the one feature that needs monitoring over the short term.
More of the same in terms of South American rainfall on Tuesday, as the majority of Argentine and Brazilian growing areas were again dry. Uruguay received rains, with surrounding parts of both southern Brazil and eastern Argentina also picking up some light precip from these storms.
Elsewhere, north/northwest Mato Grosso as well as parts of Para further to the north received rains on Tuesday, which will help allow planting to get started in these areas. And forecasts continue to show the arrival of more normal rains beyond October 9th/10th, which is raising confidence every day.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-02-2024
Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT have started Wednesday the same way they ended Tuesday, as soybeans are unchanged/slightly lower, and the corn and wheat markets are higher and have taken out yesterday’s highs. Key today for Dec corn is whether it will be able to close above it’s 100-day moving average for the first time in months after closing right on it yesterday; that level today is at 4.28 3/8. Same level for Nov beans is at 10.75 3/8 today, which also makes it the short-term upside target. Like we said yesterday, the fundamental story in wheat (which spills over into corn) is bullish on Russian weather that is not improving, as well as a continually declining EU crop that seemingly gets smaller every week; but we would offer a word of caution at current price levels as charts become overbought and run into long-term resistance levels. Corn futures this morning are trading 4-5 cents higher, soybean futures are around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down roughly $9/ton, and soybean oil is up 80-90 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are trading around $2.50/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is down 130 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both 10 points lower. Crude took out yesterday’s highs as Middle East tensions continue to influence prices here.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending September 27th is expected to show daily production in a range of .980-1.024 mil bbls, while ethanol stocks are seen between 23.20-23.774 mil bbls.
Private US ag group StoneX, on Tuesday, released new corn and soybean crop estimates for the US; they see the corn crop at 15.222 bil bu’s with an avg yield of 184 bu/acre, and they see the soybean crop at 4.613 bil bu’s with an avg yield of 53.5 bu/acre. These compare to their estimates last month of 15.127 bil bu’s and 4.575 bil bu’s respectively.
Same group also gave new monthly estimates of the crops in Brazil; soybean production was estimated at 165.03 mmt’s, which was unchanged from last month, while first corn production was estimated at 24.87 mmt’s, down slightly from last month’s 24.96 mmt’s.
USDA on Tuesday afternoon estimated US soybean crush in the month of August at 168 mil bu, and also estimated the amount of corn used for ethanol in the same month at 473 mil bu. To view the full reports, please click here.
Details continue to roll out following yesterday’s Iranian missile attack on Israel; officials estimate some 180 missiles were fired, with sides reporting varied levels of success; IDF (Israeli Defense Force) spokespeople say the majority of the missiles were intercepted, while Iran claims more than 90% of the projectiles hit their targets.
Iran early on Wednesday said the attack had ended, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as officials from the US, vowed the move would carry consequences. It is also being reported that US forces assisted in shooting down some of the missiles that were fired.
Last night’s Vice Presidential debate, likely the last ahead of the election next month, was described as relatively civil compared to the interactions between Trump and Harris in recent weeks; the two men exchanged mostly candid remarks, and thanked each other several times throughout the night.
There are no updates as of this writing this morning on the longshoremen port worker strike that started on Tuesday. In a now viral video online, head of the Longshoremen’s Association Harold Daggett says his men want a wage increase, as well as assurances that they would not loose jobs to ‘automation.’
Not a lot to talk about on the weather front this morning as forecasts for the Midwest continue to be unchanged over the next week. Dry conditions prevail for nearly the whole of the country over the next 10-15 days, while temps hold in a mostly mild pattern; there will be brief bouts of cooler air, but the overall forecast remains warmer than average for October.
Models are picking up on additional tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico in the October 7/8/9 time period, but the storm is not currently being forecast to make its way into the southeastern US as was the case with Francine and Helene. This is the one feature that needs monitoring over the short term.
More of the same in terms of South American rainfall on Tuesday, as the majority of Argentine and Brazilian growing areas were again dry. Uruguay received rains, with surrounding parts of both southern Brazil and eastern Argentina also picking up some light precip from these storms.
Elsewhere, north/northwest Mato Grosso as well as parts of Para further to the north received rains on Tuesday, which will help allow planting to get started in these areas. And forecasts continue to show the arrival of more normal rains beyond October 9th/10th, which is raising confidence every day.
Have a great day!
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