Good morning.
Ag futures are taking a breather to start Thursday, with soybean futures the downside leader. Feed grains are slightly lower as well, which is probably warranted after the run-up of the last few days. On the news front, the same general themes from the first half of this week look to remain in place today; there has been no headway made by the two sides in the port worker strike on the US East Coast as it enters day three, tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran continue to simmer, and Russian weather still sees no signs of improving in its grain producing areas. The Russian weather, and the overall global wheat situation, has been the main catalyst for that wheat/grain rally this week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-5/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are higher again, up $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 80 points, and the the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 26th is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k-1.0 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.0-1.6 mmt’s, and wheat sales between 150k-400k mt’s.
Egypt’s GASC (General Authority for Supply Commodities) announced on Wednesday that monthly wheat purchase totals for November to April would be roughly 510k mt’s, or a total of around 3.12 mmt’s. This is largest agreed to purchase agreement ever, with the wheat being sourced from the Black Sea.
OPEC+ officials, at a virtual meeting on Wednesday, did not make any changes to their output policy, and still plan on increasing oil production by 180k bpd beginning in December. This increase, which is one of a series expected to be seen into 2025, was initially supposed to start this month but was delayed due to falling prices.
Following weeks of hot/dry weather that has negatively impacted Russian wheat areas, the Russian Grain exporters Union is urging the Ministry of Agriculture to revise grain export quota distribution methods for the second half of the season to stabilize both prices and national food security.
Following yesterday’s Bloomberg article reporting a 12-month suspension of the EU’s EUDR policy, the Commission issued a statement saying that the extension would allow extra time for involved parties to get ready, but that the objectives of the law were “in no way put into question.”
“The Commission recognizes that three months ahead of the intended implementation date, several global partners have repeatedly expressed concerns about their state of preparedness. The state of preparations amongst stakeholders in Europe is also uneven,” further read the statement.
Equity markets this morning will be keyed by regular weekly jobless claims, which are expected to be marginally higher than last week but similar, and then factory orders for the month of August, which are expected to be down roughly 3% from July.
Happenings in the Middle East will also continue to influence markets on Thursday; the latest updates from overnight include Israeli sources claiming to have killed 15 Hezbollah militants in a missile strike in southern Lebanon. Otherwise, more of the same as the back-and-forth between Iran/its proxies and Israel continues.
Midwest weather continues to be rather conducive to harvest activity, as warm and dry conditions look to prevail for most of the next 10-15 days. Week-two forecasts are showing a small wetter shift in the southwest of the country near the 4-corner states, but the Corn Belt and Midwest hold in a drier pattern.
We would note that the NAM (North American Mesoscale) forecast is trying to put down a small storm system in eastern IA/northwest IL Thursday night into Friday morning, which the models are not picking up on. We will see if this moisture verifies.
Wednesday saw parts of southern Brazil and the far northeast finger of Argentina receive good rains of up to 2″ generally speaking while the remainder of the two countries were mostly dry. Models continue show improving rain chances beyond the next week, starting in Argentina and moving north into Brazil.
Will also touch on the Russian wheat belt, as it has been receiving headlines; little updates overnight here as well, as dry conditions look to persist for at least another 10 days. Rains stay too far north and west to be of any real benefit. And high pressure ridging will allow temps here to remain well above average for the same 10 day period.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-03-2024
Good morning.
Ag futures are taking a breather to start Thursday, with soybean futures the downside leader. Feed grains are slightly lower as well, which is probably warranted after the run-up of the last few days. On the news front, the same general themes from the first half of this week look to remain in place today; there has been no headway made by the two sides in the port worker strike on the US East Coast as it enters day three, tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran continue to simmer, and Russian weather still sees no signs of improving in its grain producing areas. The Russian weather, and the overall global wheat situation, has been the main catalyst for that wheat/grain rally this week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-5/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed as well, crude oil futures are higher again, up $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 80 points, and the the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 26th is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k-1.0 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.0-1.6 mmt’s, and wheat sales between 150k-400k mt’s.
Egypt’s GASC (General Authority for Supply Commodities) announced on Wednesday that monthly wheat purchase totals for November to April would be roughly 510k mt’s, or a total of around 3.12 mmt’s. This is largest agreed to purchase agreement ever, with the wheat being sourced from the Black Sea.
OPEC+ officials, at a virtual meeting on Wednesday, did not make any changes to their output policy, and still plan on increasing oil production by 180k bpd beginning in December. This increase, which is one of a series expected to be seen into 2025, was initially supposed to start this month but was delayed due to falling prices.
Following weeks of hot/dry weather that has negatively impacted Russian wheat areas, the Russian Grain exporters Union is urging the Ministry of Agriculture to revise grain export quota distribution methods for the second half of the season to stabilize both prices and national food security.
Following yesterday’s Bloomberg article reporting a 12-month suspension of the EU’s EUDR policy, the Commission issued a statement saying that the extension would allow extra time for involved parties to get ready, but that the objectives of the law were “in no way put into question.”
“The Commission recognizes that three months ahead of the intended implementation date, several global partners have repeatedly expressed concerns about their state of preparedness. The state of preparations amongst stakeholders in Europe is also uneven,” further read the statement.
Equity markets this morning will be keyed by regular weekly jobless claims, which are expected to be marginally higher than last week but similar, and then factory orders for the month of August, which are expected to be down roughly 3% from July.
Happenings in the Middle East will also continue to influence markets on Thursday; the latest updates from overnight include Israeli sources claiming to have killed 15 Hezbollah militants in a missile strike in southern Lebanon. Otherwise, more of the same as the back-and-forth between Iran/its proxies and Israel continues.
Midwest weather continues to be rather conducive to harvest activity, as warm and dry conditions look to prevail for most of the next 10-15 days. Week-two forecasts are showing a small wetter shift in the southwest of the country near the 4-corner states, but the Corn Belt and Midwest hold in a drier pattern.
We would note that the NAM (North American Mesoscale) forecast is trying to put down a small storm system in eastern IA/northwest IL Thursday night into Friday morning, which the models are not picking up on. We will see if this moisture verifies.
Wednesday saw parts of southern Brazil and the far northeast finger of Argentina receive good rains of up to 2″ generally speaking while the remainder of the two countries were mostly dry. Models continue show improving rain chances beyond the next week, starting in Argentina and moving north into Brazil.
Will also touch on the Russian wheat belt, as it has been receiving headlines; little updates overnight here as well, as dry conditions look to persist for at least another 10 days. Rains stay too far north and west to be of any real benefit. And high pressure ridging will allow temps here to remain well above average for the same 10 day period.
Have a great day.
View All News >