Good morning.
Ag futures are mixed to start the last trading day of the week this week in what has been a rather quiet overnight trading session. Ahead of what is expected to be a fairly busy harvest weekend, we would not be surprised to see farmer selling emerge into the close this afternoon, while the spec community continues to trim positions ahead of the US Presidential election that looms large just one month from now. The other key over the next few days will be what, if any, changes occur to the South American weather forecasts between now and Monday, these likely drives price direction early next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 9-10 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil is again higher, up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 75 points. New highs for the week again in crude oil.
Biggest overnight news last night was that the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Association reached an agreement to extend their previous labor contract through January, ending the three-day strike that began on Tuesday.
Workers were expected to return to the job on Friday, while the two sides said they would resume negotiations with the goal of reaching a long-term agreement.
Weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting in Argentina at 13.7% complete as of Wednesday, October 2nd, up from 10.5% complete the week prior.
Sources are indicating Turkey will partially lift its four-month wheat import ban that is set to expire at the middle of this month; new measures would allow millers to import just 15 tons of wheat though, for every 85 tons purchased form the Turkish Grain Board.
FranceAgriMer, in a weekly report, estimated French corn harvest as of Monday, September 30th at just 2% complete, compared to the five-year average of 26%. 79% of the crop was still rated g/ex though, unchanged from last week; this compares to 83% last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 28th totaled 399k tons, which was down 20.5% from the week prior. Corn shipments were down 36.6% on the week to 211k tons, and soybean shipments were up 18.7% on the week to 159k tons.
Economists expect this morning’s non-farm payrolls report for September to come in at 140k, which would be just slightly below August’s 142k reading. Unemployment is seen holding steady at 4.2% for the month.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday said the US was discussing whether to support potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, which contributed to further increases in crude oil prices; a White House official later clarified though that no decision had been made.
24-hour satellite data shows light precipitation through parts of IA/IL overnight of trace amounts to up to 0.5″; this system is expected to move through northern IL today, providing similar totals.
Otherwise, rinse and repeat on the forecast going into the weekend for the Corn Belt. Dry conditions are maintained for another 10-15 days, while temps continue to be mostly average to slightly above average save for a few brief shots of cooler air.
Week-two models are continuing to trend wetter in the southwest of the US in the area of the four-corner states, but moisture is not seen making it further east into the Plains.
Forecasts for South America going into the weekend have also continued this week’s trend in gradually getting wetter in the short/medium term; models are again wetter in the one week period overnight than were seen yesterday, while most all of Brazil and Argentina are expected to see good rains in the next 10 days. Whether these rains verify will key price direction in the short term.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-04-2024
Good morning.
Ag futures are mixed to start the last trading day of the week this week in what has been a rather quiet overnight trading session. Ahead of what is expected to be a fairly busy harvest weekend, we would not be surprised to see farmer selling emerge into the close this afternoon, while the spec community continues to trim positions ahead of the US Presidential election that looms large just one month from now. The other key over the next few days will be what, if any, changes occur to the South American weather forecasts between now and Monday, these likely drives price direction early next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 9-10 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil is again higher, up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is up 75 points. New highs for the week again in crude oil.
Biggest overnight news last night was that the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Association reached an agreement to extend their previous labor contract through January, ending the three-day strike that began on Tuesday.
Workers were expected to return to the job on Friday, while the two sides said they would resume negotiations with the goal of reaching a long-term agreement.
Weekly report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting in Argentina at 13.7% complete as of Wednesday, October 2nd, up from 10.5% complete the week prior.
Sources are indicating Turkey will partially lift its four-month wheat import ban that is set to expire at the middle of this month; new measures would allow millers to import just 15 tons of wheat though, for every 85 tons purchased form the Turkish Grain Board.
FranceAgriMer, in a weekly report, estimated French corn harvest as of Monday, September 30th at just 2% complete, compared to the five-year average of 26%. 79% of the crop was still rated g/ex though, unchanged from last week; this compares to 83% last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 28th totaled 399k tons, which was down 20.5% from the week prior. Corn shipments were down 36.6% on the week to 211k tons, and soybean shipments were up 18.7% on the week to 159k tons.
Economists expect this morning’s non-farm payrolls report for September to come in at 140k, which would be just slightly below August’s 142k reading. Unemployment is seen holding steady at 4.2% for the month.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday said the US was discussing whether to support potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, which contributed to further increases in crude oil prices; a White House official later clarified though that no decision had been made.
24-hour satellite data shows light precipitation through parts of IA/IL overnight of trace amounts to up to 0.5″; this system is expected to move through northern IL today, providing similar totals.
Otherwise, rinse and repeat on the forecast going into the weekend for the Corn Belt. Dry conditions are maintained for another 10-15 days, while temps continue to be mostly average to slightly above average save for a few brief shots of cooler air.
Week-two models are continuing to trend wetter in the southwest of the US in the area of the four-corner states, but moisture is not seen making it further east into the Plains.
Forecasts for South America going into the weekend have also continued this week’s trend in gradually getting wetter in the short/medium term; models are again wetter in the one week period overnight than were seen yesterday, while most all of Brazil and Argentina are expected to see good rains in the next 10 days. Whether these rains verify will key price direction in the short term.
Have a great day.
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