Good morning.
Overnight ag trade is quiet to start the month of October, with markets mostly mixed on minimal follow-through from the report-based selling seen yesterday and as there continues to be little in the way of new news otherwise. Rains in the western and west-central parts of the Corn Belt likely keep farmers out of the fields here for another few days, but then once this round of storms passes, it looks like a pretty decent harvest window should open up the next couple weeks into the middle of the month. Yesterday’s report indicated the US has more corn on hand than traders thought, but where final yields land in the coming months can still have a noted impact on the balance sheet and thereby can also still have a noted impact on futures prices.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading around unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending September 24th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 500k-1.3 mil MTs, soybean sales between 850k-1.5 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 250k-450k MTs.
Also due out this morning is weekly ethanol data from the EIA, which is expected to show average daily production across the US in the week ending September 25th between 1.000-1.100 mil bbls, while stocks during the week are seen between 23.935-25.200 mil bbls; on average, the production figure would be up from last week, but stocks would be lower.
Lastly on the data docket for today, the USDA is set to release monthly soybean crush data for the month of August – traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 210.5 mil bu, which if accurate, would be down 5% from July but up 6% from last August and the highest figure for the month on the record. Soybean oil stocks as of August 31 are seen at 1.774 bil lbs., which would be an 11-month low and down 10% from the July reading. NOPA previously pegged August crush at 205.5 mil bu and saw bean oil stocks at 1.201 bil lbs.
Corn used for ethanol during the month of August is seen at 469.6 mil bu, which would be up about 2% from August of last year.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon this week continued to lower its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season; the group now sees exports at just 36.7 MMTs, down 4.7 MMTs from a previous estimate. If the figure is correct, it would be the lowest wheat export figure out of the country since the 2021/22. The group added that it didn’t think normal port operations resume in the region until no earlier than the start of 2027.
Though trade focus has been mostly on China in recent weeks, US officials have remained in negotiations with both Canada and Mexico, with sources familiar with both indicating that things are progressing and that deals could be reached sooner than later. Details remain largely lacking and there aren’t any official deadlines, but the ongoing engagement would seem to be positive.
The US dollar index is higher this morning following better-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday via monthly updates to the PCE price index, as the report showed inflation was up just 0.3% in August, bringing the annual level to 3.4%. The data helped pump the breaks a bit on rate hike prospects into the end of the year, with the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning showing just a 37% chance that rates are raised again at the October meeting and a less than 60% chance that their raised during December.
El Niño-related rainfall fell across a bulk of Argentina’s ag regions this week, with the country’s state weather agency reporting totals in a range of 1-3″ and also indicating more rains were likely going forward. Argentina is one of the few countries globally that benefits agriculturally from El Niño, with soybean yields during the last major event in 2015/16 coming in well above average. There are concerns that the ‘super El Niño’ could produce excessive rainfall in some regions during the growing season, but the extra moisture is seen more as a benefit today.
Thursday looks to be another wet day across a lot of the Midwest and central part of the country, with radar data this morning showing a line of storms from TX to the Great Lakes. Flash flood risks remain in place across a lot of that area today and into tomorrow, but once these systems exit, there remains good model agreement on a drier pattern then emerging through the weekend and into next week, as high pressure sets back up across the central US and limits additional. rainfall into the middle of the month.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-01-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade is quiet to start the month of October, with markets mostly mixed on minimal follow-through from the report-based selling seen yesterday and as there continues to be little in the way of new news otherwise. Rains in the western and west-central parts of the Corn Belt likely keep farmers out of the fields here for another few days, but then once this round of storms passes, it looks like a pretty decent harvest window should open up the next couple weeks into the middle of the month. Yesterday’s report indicated the US has more corn on hand than traders thought, but where final yields land in the coming months can still have a noted impact on the balance sheet and thereby can also still have a noted impact on futures prices.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading around unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending September 24th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 500k-1.3 mil MTs, soybean sales between 850k-1.5 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 250k-450k MTs.
Also due out this morning is weekly ethanol data from the EIA, which is expected to show average daily production across the US in the week ending September 25th between 1.000-1.100 mil bbls, while stocks during the week are seen between 23.935-25.200 mil bbls; on average, the production figure would be up from last week, but stocks would be lower.
Lastly on the data docket for today, the USDA is set to release monthly soybean crush data for the month of August – traders see the report showing US crush in the month at 210.5 mil bu, which if accurate, would be down 5% from July but up 6% from last August and the highest figure for the month on the record. Soybean oil stocks as of August 31 are seen at 1.774 bil lbs., which would be an 11-month low and down 10% from the July reading. NOPA previously pegged August crush at 205.5 mil bu and saw bean oil stocks at 1.201 bil lbs.
Corn used for ethanol during the month of August is seen at 469.6 mil bu, which would be up about 2% from August of last year.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon this week continued to lower its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season; the group now sees exports at just 36.7 MMTs, down 4.7 MMTs from a previous estimate. If the figure is correct, it would be the lowest wheat export figure out of the country since the 2021/22. The group added that it didn’t think normal port operations resume in the region until no earlier than the start of 2027.
Though trade focus has been mostly on China in recent weeks, US officials have remained in negotiations with both Canada and Mexico, with sources familiar with both indicating that things are progressing and that deals could be reached sooner than later. Details remain largely lacking and there aren’t any official deadlines, but the ongoing engagement would seem to be positive.
The US dollar index is higher this morning following better-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday via monthly updates to the PCE price index, as the report showed inflation was up just 0.3% in August, bringing the annual level to 3.4%. The data helped pump the breaks a bit on rate hike prospects into the end of the year, with the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning showing just a 37% chance that rates are raised again at the October meeting and a less than 60% chance that their raised during December.
El Niño-related rainfall fell across a bulk of Argentina’s ag regions this week, with the country’s state weather agency reporting totals in a range of 1-3″ and also indicating more rains were likely going forward. Argentina is one of the few countries globally that benefits agriculturally from El Niño, with soybean yields during the last major event in 2015/16 coming in well above average. There are concerns that the ‘super El Niño’ could produce excessive rainfall in some regions during the growing season, but the extra moisture is seen more as a benefit today.
Thursday looks to be another wet day across a lot of the Midwest and central part of the country, with radar data this morning showing a line of storms from TX to the Great Lakes. Flash flood risks remain in place across a lot of that area today and into tomorrow, but once these systems exit, there remains good model agreement on a drier pattern then emerging through the weekend and into next week, as high pressure sets back up across the central US and limits additional. rainfall into the middle of the month.
Have a great day.
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