Good morning.
Choppy, two-sided ag trade has continued this morning in Chicago, with the beans again lower while the grains and the products are mixed on what’s been another quiet overnight session news-wise and as traders continue to mull generally the same market inputs that we’ve talked about all week. The marginal loosening of the corn balance sheet provided by Wednesday’s stock update caused some longs to exit, but it will likely take a confirmation of this in next week’s WASDE update before any sort of follow-through push is seen below $5. In the meantime, yields that are down from last year and the ongoing grain dilemma in the Black Sea remain the supportive features, and we don’t see that part of the trade changing much in the short term.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress had advanced to 22% complete this week, which remains ahead of average. The group added that early wheat harvest results had been good, but that frost damage assessments in the central part of the country were still ongoing. Final 2025/26 corn production was seen at a record 64 MMTs.
Monthly soybean crush and corn grind data released by the USDA yesterday afternoon showed August US soybean crush at 210 mil bu, which was down 5% from the July figure but up 6% from August of last year. As of the end of the month, Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.696 bil lbs., down 14% from July and down 5% from last year. On the corn side, corn used for ethanol was seen at 478 mil bu, up just fractionally from July and up 4% from last year.
Along with US production updates, StoneX on Thursday also said they see soybean production in Brazil this year coming in at 183.36 MMTs, down slightly from their September estimate but still up 0.4% from the 2025/26 season.
Newswires reported overnight that Russian President Putin rejected proposals for mutual strike halts with Ukraine that would’ve seen Russia refrain from hitting Ukrainian vessels in exchange for Ukraine stopping attacks on Russian refineries. Putin said that Russia was ready to negotiate, but that security guarantees and terms acceptable to the Russian people were required to move forward.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that the US had asked Europe to release strategic diesel stocks, with EU trade officials confirming the discussions and indicating that a decision could be made on the matter as early as today. No specific volumes or release dates were given.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 26th totaled 394k tons, which was up 5% from last week. Corn shipments at 197k tons were down 4%, while soybean shipments at 174k tons were up 15%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $30.28/short ton, down $3.03 from the week prior.
Following another round of rain over the last couple days, Midwest weather looks to see a drier shift over the weekend and into next, with there being little if any moisture in the forecast for the bulk of the Corn Belt over the next 10-15 days. Temperatures will be variable through next week but look to generally stay near normal for early October if not maybe a little warmer even again by the back half of next week.
The AI models have tried to bring frost risk into the upper Midwest during the back half of the month in some of their runs, but the outlook hasn’t been consistent and both the GFS and EU ensemble runs have continued to keep things a bit warmer and have been more accurate through summer.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-02-2026
Good morning.
Choppy, two-sided ag trade has continued this morning in Chicago, with the beans again lower while the grains and the products are mixed on what’s been another quiet overnight session news-wise and as traders continue to mull generally the same market inputs that we’ve talked about all week. The marginal loosening of the corn balance sheet provided by Wednesday’s stock update caused some longs to exit, but it will likely take a confirmation of this in next week’s WASDE update before any sort of follow-through push is seen below $5. In the meantime, yields that are down from last year and the ongoing grain dilemma in the Black Sea remain the supportive features, and we don’t see that part of the trade changing much in the short term.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress had advanced to 22% complete this week, which remains ahead of average. The group added that early wheat harvest results had been good, but that frost damage assessments in the central part of the country were still ongoing. Final 2025/26 corn production was seen at a record 64 MMTs.
Monthly soybean crush and corn grind data released by the USDA yesterday afternoon showed August US soybean crush at 210 mil bu, which was down 5% from the July figure but up 6% from August of last year. As of the end of the month, Soybean oil stocks were seen at 1.696 bil lbs., down 14% from July and down 5% from last year. On the corn side, corn used for ethanol was seen at 478 mil bu, up just fractionally from July and up 4% from last year.
Along with US production updates, StoneX on Thursday also said they see soybean production in Brazil this year coming in at 183.36 MMTs, down slightly from their September estimate but still up 0.4% from the 2025/26 season.
Newswires reported overnight that Russian President Putin rejected proposals for mutual strike halts with Ukraine that would’ve seen Russia refrain from hitting Ukrainian vessels in exchange for Ukraine stopping attacks on Russian refineries. Putin said that Russia was ready to negotiate, but that security guarantees and terms acceptable to the Russian people were required to move forward.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that the US had asked Europe to release strategic diesel stocks, with EU trade officials confirming the discussions and indicating that a decision could be made on the matter as early as today. No specific volumes or release dates were given.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 26th totaled 394k tons, which was up 5% from last week. Corn shipments at 197k tons were down 4%, while soybean shipments at 174k tons were up 15%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $30.28/short ton, down $3.03 from the week prior.
Following another round of rain over the last couple days, Midwest weather looks to see a drier shift over the weekend and into next, with there being little if any moisture in the forecast for the bulk of the Corn Belt over the next 10-15 days. Temperatures will be variable through next week but look to generally stay near normal for early October if not maybe a little warmer even again by the back half of next week.
The AI models have tried to bring frost risk into the upper Midwest during the back half of the month in some of their runs, but the outlook hasn’t been consistent and both the GFS and EU ensemble runs have continued to keep things a bit warmer and have been more accurate through summer.
Have a great day.
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