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Grain Comments: 10.02.23

The final quarter of the 2023 calendar year is beginning with grain and soybean markets under pressure, while crude oil trades near multi-year highs.


Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections, Crop Progress; Monthly Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings.


  • Congress late Saturday night passed a 45 day stopgap spending bill, averting a partial government shut-down.
  • We expect USDA reports to continue as scheduled as a result of the agreement.
  • China is celebrating its Golden Week holiday through October 6th.
  • Corn and soybean markets look weak from a technical perspective following Friday’s lower closes.
  • However, the seasonal tendency is for both corn and soybean markets to establish lows during the first week of October.
  • This afternoon’s Fat & Oils Report is expected to show the U.S. August soybean crush near 171.6 million bu. which would be down 3.5 million bu. from a year ago.
  • Ukraine says that five more ships are headed for Ukrainian Black Sea ports to pick up grain for export to Africa and Europe.
  • Argentine exporters say that the Argentine government is extending its soy FX program through October 20th.
  • Some mid to late week rain may slow harvest, but forecasts indicate below normal rainfall for all of the corn belt from October 7th – 15th.
  • The forecast indicates a continuation of near record low water levels on the Mississippi River, with barge loaders contending with reduced drafts and high freight costs.

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