Grain Comments 10-03-2023

Good Morning

The soybean complex dominated overnight trade volume with beans at a 3+ month lows and meal in free-fall; “better-than-expected” seems to be the general thought during a massive stretch of soybean harvesting across the belt over the last few days. The rallying USD remains a problem.

National corn condition ratings were steady this week at 53% good/excellent, still a point ahead of last year but below the 60% five-year average; corn maturity and harvest remained ahead of comparable at 82% and 23%, respectively. Soybean ratings rebounded by two points to 52% g/ex, still behind 55% LY and the 60% 5YA; soybeans hit 86% dropping leaves and 23% harvested, also both ahead of comparable metrics. Winter wheat plantings rose from 26% to 40%, in line with 39% LY and the 43% 5YA, with emergence up from 7% to 15% this week, in line with 14% LY and the 16% 5YA pace.

StoneX estimated U.S. corn yields at 175.5 bushels per acre this month, up half a bushel from Sept, with production implied at 15.202 billion bushels, 68 mbu above the USDA Sept. Soybean yields rose from 50.1 to 50.4 bpa this month, with output at 4.175 bln bu, around 30 mbu above the USDA Sept.

Rain is holding out to the west for now but move into the Plains and WCB today, lingering in the ECB through the remainder of the work week (as late as Saturday). Coverage looks strong overall, with amounts heaviest in the southern Plains up through the ECB. Extended maps remain warm and dry.

Have a great day!