Grain Comments: 10.04.23

Soybean futures are finding a mild technical recovery this morning with Nov beans scoring a double bottom yesterday before closing in the upper half of the day’s range. Corn futures are mixed while wheat futures are under moderate pressure.

• Late yesterday afternoon, the House voted 216-210 to remove Speaker McCarthy as a handful of conservatives joined Democrats to remove him. This is the first time ever that a speaker of the House has been voted out of office.
• Equities are marginally higher following the Dow’s worst drop since March, losing more than 400 points on Tuesday. The dollar index is trading lower this morning after making new highs for the move on Tuesday.
• The yield on the 30 year bond is now above 5% for the first time since 2007.
• Energy markets are mixed this morning although crude oil is down roughly $1.50 and trading at a 3-week low.
• Weekly ethanol numbers will be released later this morning. Weekly production is expected to average 999k b/d, down from 1,009k b/d a week ago. Ethanol stocks are estimated near 21.943m barrels vs 22.048m barrels a year ago.
• Although soybean futures are seeing a small technical bounce this morning, export demand needs to show signs of improvement to entice any extended move to the upside. The USDA did announce the sale of 265,000 mt of US beans to China on Tuesday. Additional confirmations today could extend today’s bounce.
• Water levels on the Mississippi river have temporarily stabilized, rising marginally at Memphis following last week’s rain event across the heart of the Midwest.
• Speaking of recent rainfall, showers moved across parts of NW and N Iowa yesterday afternoon and evening, bringing a reprieve to what has been an active harvest run. The rain was seen as a welcome event for many producers finding moisture levels in soybeans dropping below 9%.
• Two cold fronts are forecasted to move across the Mountain West and Midwestern states this week, producing the season’s first frost for parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. Overall, the event should benefit the maturation of crops across the region. Some leaf burning is expected for early emerging winter wheat although no permanent damage is expected.