Grain Comments: 10.05.23

Corn and soybeans are lower this morning, while wheat holds on to small gains. Meal and bean oil are both lower. Crude is currently down $1.50 and equity futures are lower. The dollar is flat.

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, Jobless claims

• Yesterday marked another active harvest day across most of the Midwest, especially for soybeans. Yield reports continue to be mostly reported as at or above expectations.
• Rain moved through Missouri and Illinois overnight, although totals were generally light. Rain showers will continue on through parts of IN and OH later today. This should slow bean harvest in those areas. Much cooler air will follow the system.
• Crude oil was $5.00 lower yesterday and is seeing additional loses this morning. Rbob futures were down 16 cents yesterday. Contributing to the energy weakness was an EIA report yesterday that showed that gasoline demand had slipped to about 8 mln. bpd, its lowest since early 2023. Overall economic concerns contributed as well. A panel of OPEC+ members stated that the group would maintain its recent voluntary production cuts, but not cut any further at this time.
• The head of the Argentina’s grains export chamber noted overnight that the country continues to run low on soybeans to crush. Idle capacity of crush plants along the Parana River is at 65%, but he expects it to shoot higher. This is due to a lack of soybeans due to last year’s drought. The Argentina Government stated that bean imports through August were at a record of 8.2 MMT, with that total possibly moving towards 10 MMT. The current soy dollar program got extended until October 20th to help encourage more producer beans to get sold.
• Export sales estimates for the report this morning are: corn 1,800 – 3,250; beans 400 – 950; wheat 250 – 600.
• Anec estimates that Brazil soybean exports will reach 6.71 MMT in Oct versus 3.6 MMT last Oct. Corn exports are expected to reach 8.9 MMT, up from 6.2 last October.
• Deliveries totaled 12 bean meal. No bean oil. The last trading day for October meal and bean oil contracts is October 13th.

Support for December corn today is at yesterday’s low of $4.825 and then at last week’s lows near $4.755. A relatively poor close for November beans yesterday after the early recovery effort. Support today comes in the $12.57 to $12.60 range, just above last week’s low. 62% retracement from the recent high to low on November beans shows a line of support near $12.46. December wheat with an inside day so far and a bracket of $5.50 to $5.75 identifies near term support and resistance