Good morning.
Rinse and repeat this morning to start for the Chicago ag space, as Tuesday’s markets have started the day similarly to how Monday’s trade started: mixed and choppy. Traders assume that the warm/dry weather of late has led to a further advancement of harvest progress, but without any actual data from the USDA, are left in the dark a bit as to what actually went on during what is usually the busiest harvest week on the calendar from a percentage standpoint. If soybean harvest hasn’t hit the halfway mark, we assume it will in the next day or two barring better-than-expected rains showing up to cause delays, while corn harvest gains speed by the end of this week and into mid-month. The market has a directionless feel going into Tuesday, with the ongoing combination of harvest, China, South American planting progress, and biofuel policy continuing to give traders headaches as to what is most important. Corn futures are trading either side of unchanged this morning, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed also, crude oil futures are near unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold overnight.
The USDA did not release weekly crop progress data yesterday afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown. Trade estimates from news outlets showed that corn harvest was expected to have advanced to around 30% complete, while soybean harvest was seen advancing to around 39% complete. Both of these figures remain behind those seen through the same period last year. For wheat, winter wheat planting was estimated to be at 50%, which would be similar to last year.
Brazil’s CONAB showed in a weekly update late on Monday that soybean planting in the country had reached 8.2% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 5.1% through a similar period last year and the five-year average of 9.4%. First crop corn planting was seen at 29.1% complete, which compares to 25.9% last year and the five-year average of 27.6%. Private group AgRural echoed similar sentiments, saying they saw soybean planting progress at 9% complete also.
Staying in Brazil, data from the country’s trade ministry, released on Monday, showed the country’s soybean exports in the month of September at 7.341 MMTs, which is up more than 20% from the same month last year; corn exports at 7.563 MMTs were seen up nearly 18%, while meal exports at 2.156 MMTs were seen up 19%. Of note, the data also shows beef and pork exports were each up nearly 25% from September of last year.
Lastly out of South America’s most populous country this morning, an official from Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy said on Monday that the country’s plan to raise mandatory biodiesel blending rates from the current 15% level to 16% by March of next year may not be feasible due to there not being enough time to conduct the studies needed to fully implement the measure. Brazil only made the 15% blend rate mandatory in August of this year, after it was supposed to be also implemented in March. The official declined to give a timeline on when he thought the 16% blend requirement could come into effect.
Analysts in Australia are beginning to pump the breaks just a bit on the rising production prospects for this year’s wheat crop. Following estimates for the fourth biggest wheat crop out of the country ever earlier in September, traders are now adjusting prospects lower by up to around one million tons due to a lack of rainfall during the month in the southern states of Victoria and South Australia. These states account for around a quarter of the country’s total production annually, with previous estimates seeing combined production between the two at just over 8 MMTs.
India’s ag ministry said on Monday that its farmers had planted corn on around 9.5 million hectares this year, which would be up more than 10% from the 8.43 million hectares seen planted last year. Data showed rice area at 44.16 million hectares, up almost 6% from last year, while the area planted to oilseeds was seen at 19.01 million hectares, down from 20.08 million last year.
Despite ongoing speculation and question marks surrounding the situation, sources familiar say the Trump administration is still expected to, as early as sometime today, roll out plans outlining a farmer aid package that could total up to $15 billion dollars. Following comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week indicating an announcement was expected today, Reuters is reporting three additional sources have also echoed this sentiment, though declined to name who those sources were. It remains unclear how the ongoing government shutdown will potentially affect the payments.
Ukraine’s government announced on Monday that it had approved new documentation to accompany exports of soybeans and rapeseed that allowed them to be exempt from new export duties that were announced at the beginning of September; the duties led to Ukraine’s rapeseed exports in the month falling by nearly 60% from the year prior to just 201k MTs. The government said certificates would be issued for each individual shipment and added the procedure would come into effect after official publication.
Along with ongoing trade talks with Brazil, sources are reporting this morning that President Trump is expected to host Canadian PM Mark Carney for talks on the subject today and is also expected to host the President of Finland at the White House on Thursday.
Radar data this morning shows a line of storms continuing to work eastward through the heart of the Corn Belt, with totals over the past 24 hours to the west ranging from a couple tenths to just under an inch generally speaking. The rains will possibly cause brief harvest delays, but amid otherwise parched soils, we don’t see the storms knocking producers out for more than a day, especially in the east.
Once these batches of storms makes their way out of the Midwest though, dry conditions then look to resume for the rest of the week and into the weekend with there not being much of any other precipitation expected for the Midwest through Saturday/Sunday. Models then see storms providing light/scattered precipitation again in the west/northwest through the first part of next week, with even better chances yet further to the north into Canada by the end of next week but again have little moisture today for areas to the east.
The forecast for South America continues to be little changed this morning and still shows improving rainfall potential for the bulk of Brazil’s ag areas into the back half of the week next week, while Argentina looks to continue seeing regular rains. There is talk of too wet beginning to pop up in parts of Argentina, but it’s hard to quantify at this point early in the season just how big of an issue this might be.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-07-2025
Good morning.
Rinse and repeat this morning to start for the Chicago ag space, as Tuesday’s markets have started the day similarly to how Monday’s trade started: mixed and choppy. Traders assume that the warm/dry weather of late has led to a further advancement of harvest progress, but without any actual data from the USDA, are left in the dark a bit as to what actually went on during what is usually the busiest harvest week on the calendar from a percentage standpoint. If soybean harvest hasn’t hit the halfway mark, we assume it will in the next day or two barring better-than-expected rains showing up to cause delays, while corn harvest gains speed by the end of this week and into mid-month. The market has a directionless feel going into Tuesday, with the ongoing combination of harvest, China, South American planting progress, and biofuel policy continuing to give traders headaches as to what is most important. Corn futures are trading either side of unchanged this morning, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed also, crude oil futures are near unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold overnight.
The USDA did not release weekly crop progress data yesterday afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown. Trade estimates from news outlets showed that corn harvest was expected to have advanced to around 30% complete, while soybean harvest was seen advancing to around 39% complete. Both of these figures remain behind those seen through the same period last year. For wheat, winter wheat planting was estimated to be at 50%, which would be similar to last year.
Brazil’s CONAB showed in a weekly update late on Monday that soybean planting in the country had reached 8.2% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 5.1% through a similar period last year and the five-year average of 9.4%. First crop corn planting was seen at 29.1% complete, which compares to 25.9% last year and the five-year average of 27.6%. Private group AgRural echoed similar sentiments, saying they saw soybean planting progress at 9% complete also.
Staying in Brazil, data from the country’s trade ministry, released on Monday, showed the country’s soybean exports in the month of September at 7.341 MMTs, which is up more than 20% from the same month last year; corn exports at 7.563 MMTs were seen up nearly 18%, while meal exports at 2.156 MMTs were seen up 19%. Of note, the data also shows beef and pork exports were each up nearly 25% from September of last year.
Lastly out of South America’s most populous country this morning, an official from Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy said on Monday that the country’s plan to raise mandatory biodiesel blending rates from the current 15% level to 16% by March of next year may not be feasible due to there not being enough time to conduct the studies needed to fully implement the measure. Brazil only made the 15% blend rate mandatory in August of this year, after it was supposed to be also implemented in March. The official declined to give a timeline on when he thought the 16% blend requirement could come into effect.
Analysts in Australia are beginning to pump the breaks just a bit on the rising production prospects for this year’s wheat crop. Following estimates for the fourth biggest wheat crop out of the country ever earlier in September, traders are now adjusting prospects lower by up to around one million tons due to a lack of rainfall during the month in the southern states of Victoria and South Australia. These states account for around a quarter of the country’s total production annually, with previous estimates seeing combined production between the two at just over 8 MMTs.
India’s ag ministry said on Monday that its farmers had planted corn on around 9.5 million hectares this year, which would be up more than 10% from the 8.43 million hectares seen planted last year. Data showed rice area at 44.16 million hectares, up almost 6% from last year, while the area planted to oilseeds was seen at 19.01 million hectares, down from 20.08 million last year.
Despite ongoing speculation and question marks surrounding the situation, sources familiar say the Trump administration is still expected to, as early as sometime today, roll out plans outlining a farmer aid package that could total up to $15 billion dollars. Following comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week indicating an announcement was expected today, Reuters is reporting three additional sources have also echoed this sentiment, though declined to name who those sources were. It remains unclear how the ongoing government shutdown will potentially affect the payments.
Ukraine’s government announced on Monday that it had approved new documentation to accompany exports of soybeans and rapeseed that allowed them to be exempt from new export duties that were announced at the beginning of September; the duties led to Ukraine’s rapeseed exports in the month falling by nearly 60% from the year prior to just 201k MTs. The government said certificates would be issued for each individual shipment and added the procedure would come into effect after official publication.
Along with ongoing trade talks with Brazil, sources are reporting this morning that President Trump is expected to host Canadian PM Mark Carney for talks on the subject today and is also expected to host the President of Finland at the White House on Thursday.
Radar data this morning shows a line of storms continuing to work eastward through the heart of the Corn Belt, with totals over the past 24 hours to the west ranging from a couple tenths to just under an inch generally speaking. The rains will possibly cause brief harvest delays, but amid otherwise parched soils, we don’t see the storms knocking producers out for more than a day, especially in the east.
Once these batches of storms makes their way out of the Midwest though, dry conditions then look to resume for the rest of the week and into the weekend with there not being much of any other precipitation expected for the Midwest through Saturday/Sunday. Models then see storms providing light/scattered precipitation again in the west/northwest through the first part of next week, with even better chances yet further to the north into Canada by the end of next week but again have little moisture today for areas to the east.
The forecast for South America continues to be little changed this morning and still shows improving rainfall potential for the bulk of Brazil’s ag areas into the back half of the week next week, while Argentina looks to continue seeing regular rains. There is talk of too wet beginning to pop up in parts of Argentina, but it’s hard to quantify at this point early in the season just how big of an issue this might be.
Have a great day!
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