Good morning.
Traders are seeing more mixed markets at the CBOT this morning, as the choppy trade from the previous two days this week again looks to be the most noticeable theme in the space this morning. We don’t know that there would be a lot of news or things to talk about even if the government weren’t shutdown besides the WASDE report that was due tomorrow, but the situation has seemingly led to a lack of interest in doing much of anything in the corn and soybean markets from a trader’s standpoint, while the farmer has decided to just get in the combine and drive as opposed to listening to all the talking heads speculating on the government shutdown every day. There hasn’t really been anything new and noteworthy all week this week, and this has led to a quiet few days of small-ranging trade. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold futures.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the week ending October 3rd in a range of 1.025-1.036 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.30-22.636 mil bbls. The report is expected to be out at its regular 9:30am central release time.
Though the report isn’t expected to be released tomorrow, traders see ending stocks for the month coming in at 2.236 bil bu for corn and 317 mil bu for soybeans, which would both be up from the figures seen in September; wheat ending stocks are seen at 880 mil bu, also up slightly from September. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 283.3 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 124.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs; all three of these figures would also be up from September.
On the production side, traders guess that US national average corn yields would’ve come in at 184.8 bu/acre, down slightly from last month, while production is seen also down slightly from last month at 16.632 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yield is estimated at 53.1 bu/acre, while production is seen at 4.267 bil bu; both these figures would also be down from the September report. For new crop estimates in South America, traders see Argentine corn production at 53.4 MMTs with Brazil at 132.3 MMTs, while Argy soybean production is seen at 48.5 MMTs and Brazil is seen at 175.3 MMTs.
Following an announcement yesterday that oilseed workers in Argentina would be beginning a labor strike today over low wages, the country’s government this morning has issued an order for unions to suspend the plan, while also initiating a 15-day mandatory conciliation period during which work should go on like normal. It is unclear whether unions will still pursue the work stoppage after the 15-day working period ends.
Private Black Sea ag consultant SovEcon on Tuesday raised its estimate of corn and wheat production in Ukraine in the current season; the group now sees wheat production in the country at 22.9 MMTs vs 21.4 previously, while corn production is seen at 31.8 MMTs vs 30.9 MMTs previously. The group said the increase in corn production was due to better yields in northern and central growing regions, which benefited from cool/wet conditions throughout the season.
A private Russian analytics group said on Tuesday that wheat exports out of the country in October could possibly reach upwards of 5.1 MMTs, which would be around 500k MTs higher than September’s figure, which was down from both last year and the five-year average. If accurate, the October estimate would also be down from last year but would be above the five-year average pace for the month of 4.81 MMTs.
The Trump administration did not appear to make any sort of announcement on Tuesday regarding the rumored farm-aid package that popped into the news cycle last week. The New York Times says the President is still preparing some sort of announcement, but the timing and details are now unclear.
Feeder cattle futures hit all-time highs on Tuesday, driven by tight US cattle supplies, high feed costs, and continued strong demand from feedlots and packers. The rally reflects shrinking calf numbers following years of herd liquidation, along with optimism that lower corn prices and steady beef demand will support margins into 2026. Cash markets are following futures higher, with record or near-record prices reported across the Southern Plains and Midwest this week.
Gold prices surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever, marking a historic milestone driven by renewed safe-haven demand, global monetary easing expectations, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The rally reflects investor concerns over slowing global growth, sticky inflation risks from tariffs, and expectations that central banks, including the US Fed, may begin cutting rates more aggressively.
Weather across the bulk of the Corn Belt will be cooler today than has been seen for the past week or so, as a cold front worked through the region Monday and yesterday that provided mostly light rainfall and some cooler air temperatures. This cooler period will not be long lived though, as models see daytime highs returning to the upper 70’s/lower 80’s across most of the Midwest by the weekend.
Precipitation-wise, models see minimal rainfall potential the rest of the week this week for the most part, though there could be some light pop-up shoer activity possible in the western/northwestern Corn Belt. Then through the weekend, models see more rainfall potential through the Dakotas and MN but precipitation through the week next week looks to be confined to areas mostly west of the Mississippi River.
Further out, week two precipitation maps continue to be in poor agreement this morning on their solution for the Midwest; the EU model sees average rainfall chances in the northwestern part of the area while being wetter further to the north and west, while the GFS model this morning is wetter through IA/MN/WI, and sees the precipitation being further to the east. The southeast and areas from TX to FL look to stay dry, with there being good model agreement in this region.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-08-2025
Good morning.
Traders are seeing more mixed markets at the CBOT this morning, as the choppy trade from the previous two days this week again looks to be the most noticeable theme in the space this morning. We don’t know that there would be a lot of news or things to talk about even if the government weren’t shutdown besides the WASDE report that was due tomorrow, but the situation has seemingly led to a lack of interest in doing much of anything in the corn and soybean markets from a trader’s standpoint, while the farmer has decided to just get in the combine and drive as opposed to listening to all the talking heads speculating on the government shutdown every day. There hasn’t really been anything new and noteworthy all week this week, and this has led to a quiet few days of small-ranging trade. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold futures.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the week ending October 3rd in a range of 1.025-1.036 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.30-22.636 mil bbls. The report is expected to be out at its regular 9:30am central release time.
Though the report isn’t expected to be released tomorrow, traders see ending stocks for the month coming in at 2.236 bil bu for corn and 317 mil bu for soybeans, which would both be up from the figures seen in September; wheat ending stocks are seen at 880 mil bu, also up slightly from September. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 283.3 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 124.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs; all three of these figures would also be up from September.
On the production side, traders guess that US national average corn yields would’ve come in at 184.8 bu/acre, down slightly from last month, while production is seen also down slightly from last month at 16.632 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yield is estimated at 53.1 bu/acre, while production is seen at 4.267 bil bu; both these figures would also be down from the September report. For new crop estimates in South America, traders see Argentine corn production at 53.4 MMTs with Brazil at 132.3 MMTs, while Argy soybean production is seen at 48.5 MMTs and Brazil is seen at 175.3 MMTs.
Following an announcement yesterday that oilseed workers in Argentina would be beginning a labor strike today over low wages, the country’s government this morning has issued an order for unions to suspend the plan, while also initiating a 15-day mandatory conciliation period during which work should go on like normal. It is unclear whether unions will still pursue the work stoppage after the 15-day working period ends.
Private Black Sea ag consultant SovEcon on Tuesday raised its estimate of corn and wheat production in Ukraine in the current season; the group now sees wheat production in the country at 22.9 MMTs vs 21.4 previously, while corn production is seen at 31.8 MMTs vs 30.9 MMTs previously. The group said the increase in corn production was due to better yields in northern and central growing regions, which benefited from cool/wet conditions throughout the season.
A private Russian analytics group said on Tuesday that wheat exports out of the country in October could possibly reach upwards of 5.1 MMTs, which would be around 500k MTs higher than September’s figure, which was down from both last year and the five-year average. If accurate, the October estimate would also be down from last year but would be above the five-year average pace for the month of 4.81 MMTs.
The Trump administration did not appear to make any sort of announcement on Tuesday regarding the rumored farm-aid package that popped into the news cycle last week. The New York Times says the President is still preparing some sort of announcement, but the timing and details are now unclear.
Feeder cattle futures hit all-time highs on Tuesday, driven by tight US cattle supplies, high feed costs, and continued strong demand from feedlots and packers. The rally reflects shrinking calf numbers following years of herd liquidation, along with optimism that lower corn prices and steady beef demand will support margins into 2026. Cash markets are following futures higher, with record or near-record prices reported across the Southern Plains and Midwest this week.
Gold prices surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever, marking a historic milestone driven by renewed safe-haven demand, global monetary easing expectations, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. The rally reflects investor concerns over slowing global growth, sticky inflation risks from tariffs, and expectations that central banks, including the US Fed, may begin cutting rates more aggressively.
Weather across the bulk of the Corn Belt will be cooler today than has been seen for the past week or so, as a cold front worked through the region Monday and yesterday that provided mostly light rainfall and some cooler air temperatures. This cooler period will not be long lived though, as models see daytime highs returning to the upper 70’s/lower 80’s across most of the Midwest by the weekend.
Precipitation-wise, models see minimal rainfall potential the rest of the week this week for the most part, though there could be some light pop-up shoer activity possible in the western/northwestern Corn Belt. Then through the weekend, models see more rainfall potential through the Dakotas and MN but precipitation through the week next week looks to be confined to areas mostly west of the Mississippi River.
Further out, week two precipitation maps continue to be in poor agreement this morning on their solution for the Midwest; the EU model sees average rainfall chances in the northwestern part of the area while being wetter further to the north and west, while the GFS model this morning is wetter through IA/MN/WI, and sees the precipitation being further to the east. The southeast and areas from TX to FL look to stay dry, with there being good model agreement in this region.
Have a great day.
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