Good morning.
Volume has continued to improve in the overnight sessions as the days have gone on this week, but it has not led to any further activity as markets continue to be dull and quiet again to start Thursday morning. Soybean futures are giving back what they gained on Wednesday for the most part, while the feed grain markets of corn and wheat continue to see very narrow ranging trade and have once again spent the bulk of the last several hours within spitting distance of unchanged. On what was supposed to be the USDA’s October WASDE report day, we see most of the chatter for Thursday being somewhat supply and demand related, with analysts running the range of trader guesses through their ‘what-if’ balance sheets to try and find something to talk about going into the weekend. Like we’ve said all week, barring some sort of announcement on either a farmer bailout package or progress with China out of President Trump, our best bet is that quiet/choppy trading continues. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-3 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 20-25 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, and all three of the Dow Jones indexes, the S&P, and the NASDAQ are trading near unchanged. New contract highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ overnight, but no new contract highs for the gold market.
This morning’s weekly export sales report will again be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. However, analysts see the report, were it to be released, showing corn sales for the week ending October 2nd between 1.20-2.00 MMTs, soybean sales between 600k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-600k MTs. The last report we saw, for the week ending September 18th, showed corn sales at 1.923 MMTs, soybean sales at 725k MTs, and wheat sales at 540k MTs.
Though the report isn’t expected to be released, traders see ending stocks for the October WASDE coming in at 2.236 bil bu for corn and 317 mil bu for soybeans, which would both be up from the figures seen in September; wheat ending stocks are seen at 880 mil bu, also up slightly from September. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 283.3 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 124.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs; all three of these figures would also be up from September.
On the production side, traders guess that US national average corn yields would’ve come in at 184.8 bu/acre, down slightly from last month, while production is seen also down slightly from last month at 16.632 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yield is estimated at 53.1 bu/acre, while production is seen at 4.267 bil bu; both these figures would also be down from the September report. For new crop estimates in South America, traders see Argentine corn production at 53.4 MMTs with Brazil at 132.3 MMTs, while Argy soybean production is seen at 48.5 MMTs and Brazil is seen at 175.3 MMTs.
Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange said on Thursday that they see the country’s wheat production in the 2025/26 season possibly reaching 23 MMTs, which would be up from a previous estimate of around 20 MMTs and would also top the country’s previous record set in the 2021/22 season. The exchange cited months of above average rainfall through the country’s main growing regions as reason for the increase and also noted that corn and soybean production were seen at 61 MMTs and 47 MMTs respectively.
Along with record soybean exports this year, officials from Brazil on Wednesday said that beef exports from the country have also been at record levels; data for September shows shipments to China alone were up nearly 40% compared to last year at 187,340 tons, while total beef and beef product exports are up nearly 20% from the same period last year. Furthermore, the data shows exports to the US in September were down more than 40% from last year, highlighting he is shifting trade flows caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Following a bit of biofuel rumblings out of Brazil earlier this week, private US group StoneX said on Wednesday that they see Brazilian biodiesel demand in 2026 increasing by just over 6% from the current year to 10.5 billion liters. The expansion would follow growth of just under 9% from 2024 to 2025 and assumes on delays in the full roll out of B15, which came into question earlier this week.
The Canadian National railway said on Wednesday that they set a record for grain transportation in the month of September, with data showing the rail had moved 2.91 MMTs of grain during the month. This was up 80k MTs from the month’s previous record.
Minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting showed officials were largely united in favor of lowering interest rates further throughout the end of the year, but there were differences in the pace and number of cuts possible over the next 3 months. The ‘dot plot’ showed officials were evenly split 10-9, with the small majority favoring two additional quarter-point rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
In rapid-fire style on trade news this morning, sources are reporting that a trade delegation from Vietnam will visit the US in October and November, while Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian PM Mark Carney both made comments in recent days that talks with the US were “progressing” and would continue to be ongoing. Lastly, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that officials from the EU were concerned over new trade demands from the US that couple potentially “hollow out” the reciprocal framework that had been previously agreed to earlier this year.
There is little news this morning on the weather front for either the US Midwest or South America this morning. Starting in the states, models continue to show another few days of drier weather across most of the area into the weekend, though there will be some light/scattered precipitation potential in the western belt Saturday/Sunday, with these rain chances then hanging around through the early part of next week.
South of the equator, Argentina also sees a rain even Saturday/Sunday and will be dry the next few days in the meantime, while southern Brazil continues to see near daily chances at rainfall into next week, with precipitation expected to expand to the north throughout the week next week. The EU model this morning sees the country’s primary ag areas receiving anywhere from a half inch to 2 inches generally speaking between now and the end of the week next week, with some locally heavier amounts possible.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-09-2025
Good morning.
Volume has continued to improve in the overnight sessions as the days have gone on this week, but it has not led to any further activity as markets continue to be dull and quiet again to start Thursday morning. Soybean futures are giving back what they gained on Wednesday for the most part, while the feed grain markets of corn and wheat continue to see very narrow ranging trade and have once again spent the bulk of the last several hours within spitting distance of unchanged. On what was supposed to be the USDA’s October WASDE report day, we see most of the chatter for Thursday being somewhat supply and demand related, with analysts running the range of trader guesses through their ‘what-if’ balance sheets to try and find something to talk about going into the weekend. Like we’ve said all week, barring some sort of announcement on either a farmer bailout package or progress with China out of President Trump, our best bet is that quiet/choppy trading continues. Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-3 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 20-25 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, and all three of the Dow Jones indexes, the S&P, and the NASDAQ are trading near unchanged. New contract highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ overnight, but no new contract highs for the gold market.
This morning’s weekly export sales report will again be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. However, analysts see the report, were it to be released, showing corn sales for the week ending October 2nd between 1.20-2.00 MMTs, soybean sales between 600k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-600k MTs. The last report we saw, for the week ending September 18th, showed corn sales at 1.923 MMTs, soybean sales at 725k MTs, and wheat sales at 540k MTs.
Though the report isn’t expected to be released, traders see ending stocks for the October WASDE coming in at 2.236 bil bu for corn and 317 mil bu for soybeans, which would both be up from the figures seen in September; wheat ending stocks are seen at 880 mil bu, also up slightly from September. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 283.3 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 124.6 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 265.9 MMTs; all three of these figures would also be up from September.
On the production side, traders guess that US national average corn yields would’ve come in at 184.8 bu/acre, down slightly from last month, while production is seen also down slightly from last month at 16.632 bil bu. For soybeans, national average yield is estimated at 53.1 bu/acre, while production is seen at 4.267 bil bu; both these figures would also be down from the September report. For new crop estimates in South America, traders see Argentine corn production at 53.4 MMTs with Brazil at 132.3 MMTs, while Argy soybean production is seen at 48.5 MMTs and Brazil is seen at 175.3 MMTs.
Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange said on Thursday that they see the country’s wheat production in the 2025/26 season possibly reaching 23 MMTs, which would be up from a previous estimate of around 20 MMTs and would also top the country’s previous record set in the 2021/22 season. The exchange cited months of above average rainfall through the country’s main growing regions as reason for the increase and also noted that corn and soybean production were seen at 61 MMTs and 47 MMTs respectively.
Along with record soybean exports this year, officials from Brazil on Wednesday said that beef exports from the country have also been at record levels; data for September shows shipments to China alone were up nearly 40% compared to last year at 187,340 tons, while total beef and beef product exports are up nearly 20% from the same period last year. Furthermore, the data shows exports to the US in September were down more than 40% from last year, highlighting he is shifting trade flows caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Following a bit of biofuel rumblings out of Brazil earlier this week, private US group StoneX said on Wednesday that they see Brazilian biodiesel demand in 2026 increasing by just over 6% from the current year to 10.5 billion liters. The expansion would follow growth of just under 9% from 2024 to 2025 and assumes on delays in the full roll out of B15, which came into question earlier this week.
The Canadian National railway said on Wednesday that they set a record for grain transportation in the month of September, with data showing the rail had moved 2.91 MMTs of grain during the month. This was up 80k MTs from the month’s previous record.
Minutes from the Fed’s September policy meeting showed officials were largely united in favor of lowering interest rates further throughout the end of the year, but there were differences in the pace and number of cuts possible over the next 3 months. The ‘dot plot’ showed officials were evenly split 10-9, with the small majority favoring two additional quarter-point rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
In rapid-fire style on trade news this morning, sources are reporting that a trade delegation from Vietnam will visit the US in October and November, while Mexican President Sheinbaum and Canadian PM Mark Carney both made comments in recent days that talks with the US were “progressing” and would continue to be ongoing. Lastly, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that officials from the EU were concerned over new trade demands from the US that couple potentially “hollow out” the reciprocal framework that had been previously agreed to earlier this year.
There is little news this morning on the weather front for either the US Midwest or South America this morning. Starting in the states, models continue to show another few days of drier weather across most of the area into the weekend, though there will be some light/scattered precipitation potential in the western belt Saturday/Sunday, with these rain chances then hanging around through the early part of next week.
South of the equator, Argentina also sees a rain even Saturday/Sunday and will be dry the next few days in the meantime, while southern Brazil continues to see near daily chances at rainfall into next week, with precipitation expected to expand to the north throughout the week next week. The EU model this morning sees the country’s primary ag areas receiving anywhere from a half inch to 2 inches generally speaking between now and the end of the week next week, with some locally heavier amounts possible.
Have a great day.
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