Good morning.
Soybeans are sliding this morning for the second straight day, as yesterday’s downward price action has spilled over into this morning as relations between the US and China seemingly continue to deteriorate on the tech side. Beijing overnight announced tighter export controls on rare earth minerals and other advanced chip-making materials, which, was we go into the weekend, continues to illustrate just how much of a gap still exists between the two sides and how they are seemingly still a long way off from achieving any sort of a deal. Trump can tell reporters at the White House that things are progressing, and relations are good all he wants, but the actual steps the two sides are taking ahead of the planned talks at the end of the month are painting a rather different picture. Cron futures to start Friday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 40 points. Metals are higher but have not made new contract highs this morning.
For the second week in a row, there will be no CFTC Commitment of Traders data this afternoon. We track daily fund position movement at the bottom of this report each day but will note that as data has not been updated for the past two weeks now, there is a high likelihood that these numbers are inaccurate.
Following increased production estimates from the Rosario Grain Exchange on Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain exchange did not make any production estimate updates in its weekly report but mentioned that just under 97% of the crop is rated either good or excellent. The group mentioned also that excessive moisture and humidity had led to increased pest and fungus pressure, but the situation wasn’t overly concerning at this point. The group also showed Argentine corn planting at 25.6% complete, which is nearly 8% ahead of last year.
Data from Ukraine’s Ag Ministry showed grain and legume exports out of the country through October 10th had totaled just 7.2 MMTs, which is down nearly 40% from the same period a year ago. The total includes 5.12 MMTs of wheat (down 25%), 939k MTs of barley (down 40%), and 974k MTs of corn (down 69%).
A department head in Russia’s Ag Ministry said on Friday that the country’s grain export quota in 2026 may potentially be higher than this year’s due to better yields and a bigger harvest this year. The quota, which goes from February 15th to June 30th each year, was set at 10.6 MMTs in 2025. Furthermore, data shows grain harvest in the country at 130 MMTs, compared to the total forecast of 135 MMTs; wheat harvest through October 8th had brought in roughly 6.5 MMTs more grain than last year.
Weekly US drought monitor data released on Thursday showed a further decline in moisture conditions across the ag belt over the past week. Data showed the amount of US corn area in D1-D4 drought this week at 31%, which is up another 3% from the week prior; soybean area in D1-D4 drought was seen at 39%, up from 37% last week.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the US had purchased Argentine pesos and had finalized a $20 billion currency swap line with Argentina’s central bank following a meeting between the two country’s top finance officials in Washington last week.
Weekend weather across most of the Midwest will be fairly benign according the models, with there being just light/scattered precipitation chances through the western/northwestern Corn Belt over the next 72 hours, while the eastern and central parts of the belt look to continue seeing more dryness. The EU model this morning shows precipitation in the west, not totaling more than a tenth or two in most places.
This pattern is then expected to mostly continue through the week next week, as the western part of the Midwest will continue to see regular, light, rainfall chances, while most of the Midwest east of the Mississippi will continue to be mostly short-changed. Week two precipitation maps into the end of the month are also wetter this morning than they’ve been all week, which raises our confidence that a pattern shift could be possible over the next couple weeks.
Temperature-wise, the outlook this morning is similar to previous days this week, with the models in good agreement on mostly warmer than normal air temps staying in place across the Midwest and eastern US through the week next week, while the western US stays cooler. Then by the end of next week, it’s expected that cooler air will be in place across most of the country, though the EU model this morning is trying to keep a sliver of warmer air through the mid-south and more of the southeastern Midwest that the GFS is not.
Not a lot of change in the forecast South America overnight and going into the weekend, as models continue to see the arrival of the rainy season in Brazil showing up over the next week to 10 days. Almost of the country’s growing regions expect to see some sort of precipitation between now and October 20th, which along with temperatures that are mostly above average, should aid in early season crop development.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-10-2025
Good morning.
Soybeans are sliding this morning for the second straight day, as yesterday’s downward price action has spilled over into this morning as relations between the US and China seemingly continue to deteriorate on the tech side. Beijing overnight announced tighter export controls on rare earth minerals and other advanced chip-making materials, which, was we go into the weekend, continues to illustrate just how much of a gap still exists between the two sides and how they are seemingly still a long way off from achieving any sort of a deal. Trump can tell reporters at the White House that things are progressing, and relations are good all he wants, but the actual steps the two sides are taking ahead of the planned talks at the end of the month are painting a rather different picture. Cron futures to start Friday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is nearly unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 40 points. Metals are higher but have not made new contract highs this morning.
For the second week in a row, there will be no CFTC Commitment of Traders data this afternoon. We track daily fund position movement at the bottom of this report each day but will note that as data has not been updated for the past two weeks now, there is a high likelihood that these numbers are inaccurate.
Following increased production estimates from the Rosario Grain Exchange on Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grain exchange did not make any production estimate updates in its weekly report but mentioned that just under 97% of the crop is rated either good or excellent. The group mentioned also that excessive moisture and humidity had led to increased pest and fungus pressure, but the situation wasn’t overly concerning at this point. The group also showed Argentine corn planting at 25.6% complete, which is nearly 8% ahead of last year.
Data from Ukraine’s Ag Ministry showed grain and legume exports out of the country through October 10th had totaled just 7.2 MMTs, which is down nearly 40% from the same period a year ago. The total includes 5.12 MMTs of wheat (down 25%), 939k MTs of barley (down 40%), and 974k MTs of corn (down 69%).
A department head in Russia’s Ag Ministry said on Friday that the country’s grain export quota in 2026 may potentially be higher than this year’s due to better yields and a bigger harvest this year. The quota, which goes from February 15th to June 30th each year, was set at 10.6 MMTs in 2025. Furthermore, data shows grain harvest in the country at 130 MMTs, compared to the total forecast of 135 MMTs; wheat harvest through October 8th had brought in roughly 6.5 MMTs more grain than last year.
Weekly US drought monitor data released on Thursday showed a further decline in moisture conditions across the ag belt over the past week. Data showed the amount of US corn area in D1-D4 drought this week at 31%, which is up another 3% from the week prior; soybean area in D1-D4 drought was seen at 39%, up from 37% last week.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the US had purchased Argentine pesos and had finalized a $20 billion currency swap line with Argentina’s central bank following a meeting between the two country’s top finance officials in Washington last week.
Weekend weather across most of the Midwest will be fairly benign according the models, with there being just light/scattered precipitation chances through the western/northwestern Corn Belt over the next 72 hours, while the eastern and central parts of the belt look to continue seeing more dryness. The EU model this morning shows precipitation in the west, not totaling more than a tenth or two in most places.
This pattern is then expected to mostly continue through the week next week, as the western part of the Midwest will continue to see regular, light, rainfall chances, while most of the Midwest east of the Mississippi will continue to be mostly short-changed. Week two precipitation maps into the end of the month are also wetter this morning than they’ve been all week, which raises our confidence that a pattern shift could be possible over the next couple weeks.
Temperature-wise, the outlook this morning is similar to previous days this week, with the models in good agreement on mostly warmer than normal air temps staying in place across the Midwest and eastern US through the week next week, while the western US stays cooler. Then by the end of next week, it’s expected that cooler air will be in place across most of the country, though the EU model this morning is trying to keep a sliver of warmer air through the mid-south and more of the southeastern Midwest that the GFS is not.
Not a lot of change in the forecast South America overnight and going into the weekend, as models continue to see the arrival of the rainy season in Brazil showing up over the next week to 10 days. Almost of the country’s growing regions expect to see some sort of precipitation between now and October 20th, which along with temperatures that are mostly above average, should aid in early season crop development.
Have a great day.
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