Good morning.
Ag markets are lower (in the case of the grains) to sharply lower (in the case of soybeans) to start Tuesday, after actually trading higher to begin the overnight session. Good harvest progress, as well as continually improving weather forecasts in South America have caused sellers to return to the marketplace. Traders have injected some measure of weather premium into the soybean market due to the latent start to the monsoon season in Brazil, but as the rains begin to arrive, this premium will likely slowly be removed barring a drop in the US crop on Friday. Soybean planting pace in Brazil over the next two to three weeks likely becomes the dominant market feature as the US soybean harvest surpasses the halfway mark. Corn futures this morning are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 13-14 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton, and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are giving back some of their recent gains, down $1.40-1.60/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed corn harvest as of Sunday, October 6th at 30% complete, and soybean harvest as of the same day at 47% complete. Both remain ahead of their respective five-year averages.
At the state level, Iowa is 22% complete with corn harvest (+11% from last week), Illinois is 32% complete (+11%), and Indiana is 29% complete (+9%). North Dakota is just 8% complete, while Kansas is 67% complete.
In soybeans, Iowa is 58% harvested (+31%), Illinois is 42% (+18%), and Indiana is 36% (+13%). Big week in the western belt as North Dakota jumped 29%, South Dakota jumped 36%, Minnesota jumped 33%, and Wisconsin jumped 31%. Missouri is just 23% complete but is 62% complete with corn.
Corn conditions in the g/ex category were unchanged on the week at 64%, while soybean conditions dropped 1% to 63% g/ex. Of note, this will be the last week of soybean condition ratings for the season.
Winter wheat planting advanced 12% to 51% complete as of Sunday, while emergence was seen at 25%, up from 14% last week. Planting pace is 1% behind the current five-year average.
Russia continues to ramp up attacks on Ukrainian grain assets; sources yesterday said Russian missiles hit a civilian ship in the port of Odessa, killing a port worker and injuring five others. This is the second attack in as many days on civilian vessels in Ukraine’s ports.
Despite these attacks, Ukraine’s ag ministry says grain exports in the current season have reached 1.2 mmt’s, which is up more than 50% from last year’s 7.2 mmt’s in the same time period. Corn exports are similar to last year, but wheat exports are up nearly 80% and barley exports are up more than 100%.
Lawmakers in the EU on Monday agreed to send a proposal to delay the landmark deforestation bill straight to the wider parliament, skipping the usual step of sending legislation to individual committees first. Sources say this means a vote on the proposal like comes sometime in November as of now.
Stock markets in China traded lower on Tuesday as investors returned from the week-long Golden Week holiday to a lack of new announced stimulus from the Chinese government. This selling spilled into markets in the EU, though stocks in the US have so far been stable after declining yesterday to start the week.
Hurricane Milton continues to fluctuate between a cat 4 and cat 5 storm, with landfall as a category 5 still expected sometime Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Otherwise, overnight updates in Milton were minimal.
Short-term models overnight added some moisture in a band through the northern part of the country into Canada this weekend into the first part of next week, but totals are expected to be light. The GFS is also wetter overnight in the southwest starting the following Monday, but the EU model does not have this moisture.
Week-two forecasts continue to trend wetter in the northwest, while the EU AI model is actually significantly wetter through most of the western half of the US into the end of October. Confidence is low as other models have not picked up on this, but signs of a pattern change are beginning to show up.
Rains have arrived in South America, with satellite imagery showing rainfall over most of Argentina in the last 24 hours; heaviest amounts were in the east/central parts of the country. Forecasts show these rains continuing to move north into the end of the week, reaching Brazil by the weekend.
Moisture will continue to be scattered for another week or so, before coverage picks up beyond the middle of next week. Temps here will remain mostly above average in Brazil, while being seen average to slightly above average in Argentina over the next 10 days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-08-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets are lower (in the case of the grains) to sharply lower (in the case of soybeans) to start Tuesday, after actually trading higher to begin the overnight session. Good harvest progress, as well as continually improving weather forecasts in South America have caused sellers to return to the marketplace. Traders have injected some measure of weather premium into the soybean market due to the latent start to the monsoon season in Brazil, but as the rains begin to arrive, this premium will likely slowly be removed barring a drop in the US crop on Friday. Soybean planting pace in Brazil over the next two to three weeks likely becomes the dominant market feature as the US soybean harvest surpasses the halfway mark. Corn futures this morning are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 13-14 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton, and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are giving back some of their recent gains, down $1.40-1.60/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed corn harvest as of Sunday, October 6th at 30% complete, and soybean harvest as of the same day at 47% complete. Both remain ahead of their respective five-year averages.
At the state level, Iowa is 22% complete with corn harvest (+11% from last week), Illinois is 32% complete (+11%), and Indiana is 29% complete (+9%). North Dakota is just 8% complete, while Kansas is 67% complete.
In soybeans, Iowa is 58% harvested (+31%), Illinois is 42% (+18%), and Indiana is 36% (+13%). Big week in the western belt as North Dakota jumped 29%, South Dakota jumped 36%, Minnesota jumped 33%, and Wisconsin jumped 31%. Missouri is just 23% complete but is 62% complete with corn.
Corn conditions in the g/ex category were unchanged on the week at 64%, while soybean conditions dropped 1% to 63% g/ex. Of note, this will be the last week of soybean condition ratings for the season.
Winter wheat planting advanced 12% to 51% complete as of Sunday, while emergence was seen at 25%, up from 14% last week. Planting pace is 1% behind the current five-year average.
Russia continues to ramp up attacks on Ukrainian grain assets; sources yesterday said Russian missiles hit a civilian ship in the port of Odessa, killing a port worker and injuring five others. This is the second attack in as many days on civilian vessels in Ukraine’s ports.
Despite these attacks, Ukraine’s ag ministry says grain exports in the current season have reached 1.2 mmt’s, which is up more than 50% from last year’s 7.2 mmt’s in the same time period. Corn exports are similar to last year, but wheat exports are up nearly 80% and barley exports are up more than 100%.
Lawmakers in the EU on Monday agreed to send a proposal to delay the landmark deforestation bill straight to the wider parliament, skipping the usual step of sending legislation to individual committees first. Sources say this means a vote on the proposal like comes sometime in November as of now.
Stock markets in China traded lower on Tuesday as investors returned from the week-long Golden Week holiday to a lack of new announced stimulus from the Chinese government. This selling spilled into markets in the EU, though stocks in the US have so far been stable after declining yesterday to start the week.
Hurricane Milton continues to fluctuate between a cat 4 and cat 5 storm, with landfall as a category 5 still expected sometime Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Otherwise, overnight updates in Milton were minimal.
Short-term models overnight added some moisture in a band through the northern part of the country into Canada this weekend into the first part of next week, but totals are expected to be light. The GFS is also wetter overnight in the southwest starting the following Monday, but the EU model does not have this moisture.
Week-two forecasts continue to trend wetter in the northwest, while the EU AI model is actually significantly wetter through most of the western half of the US into the end of October. Confidence is low as other models have not picked up on this, but signs of a pattern change are beginning to show up.
Rains have arrived in South America, with satellite imagery showing rainfall over most of Argentina in the last 24 hours; heaviest amounts were in the east/central parts of the country. Forecasts show these rains continuing to move north into the end of the week, reaching Brazil by the weekend.
Moisture will continue to be scattered for another week or so, before coverage picks up beyond the middle of next week. Temps here will remain mostly above average in Brazil, while being seen average to slightly above average in Argentina over the next 10 days.
Have a great day.
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