Good morning.
Turn-around Wednesday at the CBOT this week, as the wheat market is leading prices higher so far to start mid-week trading. Wheat has had a bullish fundamental story on Russian weather/prices, as the prior has caused the latter to remain elevated, which in turn has kept world wheat values elevated in general. And aside from Russia, Argentina has had a dry winter wheat season, and Australia has also seen less than ideal conditions for its wheat crop. Otherwise, traders look to be in for another couple of days of ‘hurry up and wait’, as the USDA October supply & demand report is due on Friday and the Midwest harvest continues to quickly progress. It is likely that neither breaks nor rallies will be able to be sustained until the first part of next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed/higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is trading either side of unchanged. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 25 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 4th is expected to show production in the week at 1.010-1.030 mil bbls/day, while stocks are seen between 23.00 and 23.559 mil bbls.
Along with census export data for grains yesterday, census trade data also showed US imports of animal fats/veg oils in 2024 had reached 1.46 mmt’s through August, which is more than double the volume in the same period last year, and already above the total for the full year in 2023, which was a record.
Imports of rapeseed and canola oil are also up 17% from last year at 2.25 mmt’s but are still below the full-year total.
Russia’s Ag Minister said on Tuesday said that the Russian grain harvest was complete on more than 90% of the growing areas, with 120 mmt’s of grain brought in so far; of this, roughly 85 mmt’s is wheat.
EU customs data, which remains incomplete due to technical problems dating back to last year, showed wheat exports as of October 6th at 6.35 mmt’s compared to 8.90 mmt’s in the same period last year. Data also showed corn imports at 5.43 mmt’s compared to 4.96 mmt’s last year. The EU marketing year began July 1.
Equity markets will be keyed on Wednesday by the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes from their September meeting. Traders will be watching for any glimpses into further policy decisions, while also looking for the extent at which the previous rate cut was agreed upon.
US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to speak by phone on Wednesday, as Washington feverishly tries to head off a further response by Israel against Iran. The meeting comes following an abrupt cancelation of a planned trip to Washington by Israel’s defense chief Yoav Gallant earlier this week.
Hurricane Milton’s path shifted lightly further to the south overnight last night, but otherwise updates on the storm were mostly minimal. Sustained winds as of this morning remain above 160mph, making the storm a category 5 hurricane as of this writing; experts expect landfall to be made sometime tonight as a category 4 or 5 with a storm surge of 15+’ in places.
Forecasts for the Midwest and the rest of the country otherwise again trended slightly wetter overnight in the northeast and into the Great Lakes regions, with the best agreement noted north of New York and into Canada. The west/southwest is also trending slightly wetter, but the mid-section of the country remains in a dry pattern.
The EU AI model continues to trend wetter in the week-two period than all the other models for the west, but both the EU and GFS are beginning to show signs of less dryness impacting the western half of the country beyond October 22nd. The eastern half of the Midwest continues to see little/no rain chances, but it seems some sort of pattern change is beginning.
Ridging in the central part of the country that is responsible for this dryness also allows temps to stay well above average for the rest of this week and into the weekend, before low pressure allows cooler temps to emerge for the eastern half of the country into the first part of next week. There is growing likelihood that much of the Corn Belt sees its first frost of the season in the first half of next week.
Satellite data in the 24-hour period ended 1am central time last night showed continued rains through most of Argentina, with totals mostly below 1″. In Brazil, parts of Goias and Minas Gerais received rainfall of 0.1-2″, but rains were localized, and the rest of the country was mostly dry.
Forecasts continue to indicate better rains moving north into Brazil by the end of this week and first part of next week, while the 10-day and two-week forecasts continue to advertise much better moisture chances for both Brazil and Argentina beyond mid-month. There was no change overnight on the temperature forecast.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-09-2024
Good morning.
Turn-around Wednesday at the CBOT this week, as the wheat market is leading prices higher so far to start mid-week trading. Wheat has had a bullish fundamental story on Russian weather/prices, as the prior has caused the latter to remain elevated, which in turn has kept world wheat values elevated in general. And aside from Russia, Argentina has had a dry winter wheat season, and Australia has also seen less than ideal conditions for its wheat crop. Otherwise, traders look to be in for another couple of days of ‘hurry up and wait’, as the USDA October supply & demand report is due on Friday and the Midwest harvest continues to quickly progress. It is likely that neither breaks nor rallies will be able to be sustained until the first part of next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are mixed/higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is trading either side of unchanged. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are down 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 25 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 4th is expected to show production in the week at 1.010-1.030 mil bbls/day, while stocks are seen between 23.00 and 23.559 mil bbls.
Along with census export data for grains yesterday, census trade data also showed US imports of animal fats/veg oils in 2024 had reached 1.46 mmt’s through August, which is more than double the volume in the same period last year, and already above the total for the full year in 2023, which was a record.
Imports of rapeseed and canola oil are also up 17% from last year at 2.25 mmt’s but are still below the full-year total.
Russia’s Ag Minister said on Tuesday said that the Russian grain harvest was complete on more than 90% of the growing areas, with 120 mmt’s of grain brought in so far; of this, roughly 85 mmt’s is wheat.
EU customs data, which remains incomplete due to technical problems dating back to last year, showed wheat exports as of October 6th at 6.35 mmt’s compared to 8.90 mmt’s in the same period last year. Data also showed corn imports at 5.43 mmt’s compared to 4.96 mmt’s last year. The EU marketing year began July 1.
Equity markets will be keyed on Wednesday by the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes from their September meeting. Traders will be watching for any glimpses into further policy decisions, while also looking for the extent at which the previous rate cut was agreed upon.
US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to speak by phone on Wednesday, as Washington feverishly tries to head off a further response by Israel against Iran. The meeting comes following an abrupt cancelation of a planned trip to Washington by Israel’s defense chief Yoav Gallant earlier this week.
Hurricane Milton’s path shifted lightly further to the south overnight last night, but otherwise updates on the storm were mostly minimal. Sustained winds as of this morning remain above 160mph, making the storm a category 5 hurricane as of this writing; experts expect landfall to be made sometime tonight as a category 4 or 5 with a storm surge of 15+’ in places.
Forecasts for the Midwest and the rest of the country otherwise again trended slightly wetter overnight in the northeast and into the Great Lakes regions, with the best agreement noted north of New York and into Canada. The west/southwest is also trending slightly wetter, but the mid-section of the country remains in a dry pattern.
The EU AI model continues to trend wetter in the week-two period than all the other models for the west, but both the EU and GFS are beginning to show signs of less dryness impacting the western half of the country beyond October 22nd. The eastern half of the Midwest continues to see little/no rain chances, but it seems some sort of pattern change is beginning.
Ridging in the central part of the country that is responsible for this dryness also allows temps to stay well above average for the rest of this week and into the weekend, before low pressure allows cooler temps to emerge for the eastern half of the country into the first part of next week. There is growing likelihood that much of the Corn Belt sees its first frost of the season in the first half of next week.
Satellite data in the 24-hour period ended 1am central time last night showed continued rains through most of Argentina, with totals mostly below 1″. In Brazil, parts of Goias and Minas Gerais received rainfall of 0.1-2″, but rains were localized, and the rest of the country was mostly dry.
Forecasts continue to indicate better rains moving north into Brazil by the end of this week and first part of next week, while the 10-day and two-week forecasts continue to advertise much better moisture chances for both Brazil and Argentina beyond mid-month. There was no change overnight on the temperature forecast.
Have a great day.
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