Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are again mixed/quiet in the overnight trading session to start Thursday, while the wheat market is higher and looking to close that way for the fourth consecutive day this week. As we mentioned earlier in the week, rising wheat prices continue to be a product of the situation in Russia, as dry weather continues to be an issue there and their FOB prices continue to increase. For corn and soybeans, we’d expected another choppy/two-sided day today as traders continue to wait for tomorrow’s USDA data. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny higher, soybean futures are down 2-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are quiet/lower, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 25 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 45 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 3rd is expected to show corn sales in a range of 900k-1.7 mil mt’s, soybeans sales in a range of 800k-1.7 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
For tomorrow’s USDA report, the trade sees corn yield coming in slightly lower than last month at 183.4 bu/acre, and sees soybean yield also slightly lower from last month at 53.1 bu/acre. Corn production is estimated at 15.155 bil bu’s, while soybean production is estimated at 4.579 bil bu’s.
US ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.962 bil bu’s compared to 2.057 mil last month, and soybean ending stocks are estimated at 549 mil bu’s, compared to 550 mil last month. At the world level, corn ending stocks are seen at 306.83 mmt’s compared to 308.35 last month, and soybean ending stocks are seen at 134.53 mmt’s, compared to 134.58 last month.
Private ag consultancy Strategie Grains sees total grain production in the EU at 258.5 mmt’s, which is barely changed from last month’s estimate. Soft wheat production was estimated at a 12-year low of 114.4 mmt’s, while corn production is seen at its third lowest level in the last 10 years at 58.1 mmt’s.
The Rosario Board of Trade lowered their estimate of the 2024/25 Argentine wheat crop by 1 mmt’s to 19.5 mmt’s; this is still up more than 30% from last season’s output. USDA’s current estimate is 18.0 mmt’s.
Russia’s Ag Ministry has called for an emergency meeting on October 11th to discuss export restrictions on wheat due to lower production and current exports nearing last year’s levels. This is attributing to this morning’s wheat rally.
Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting showed several members were supportive of a smaller 25-basis point rate cut, though only one actually voted against it. Otherwise, details regarding future policy moves were scarce.
Equity markets on Thursday will be driven by this morning’s CPI/Inflation data for September, which are expected to show a slight deceleration in key metrics following the lowering of rates last month.
Hurricane Milton made landfall last night slightly earlier than expected on Florida’s west coast as a category 3 hurricane; winds of 120+mph accompanied the storm. As of this morning Milton has already exited Florida’s east coast and is back in the Atlantic as a category 1 storm.
Satellite data this morning shows rainfall totals of more than 11″ in places from the hurricane over the past 24 hours, which was slightly more than expected. Otherwise, the rest of the country remained mostly dry on Wednesday.
Forecasts otherwise remain mostly unchanged from yesterday; the next week will see continued dry conditions through the Corn Belt, while cool air provides frost potential to a large area next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
Week-two forecasts, however, are beginning to show better signs of precipitation returning into the end of the month, as this morning’s EU and GFS ensemble runs are both significantly wetter in the western/central part of the country by October 24th, and are also more in line with the EU AI model, which has had this shift for a couple days now.
Satellite data in South America as of 1am last night showed another good day of rains on Wednesday, as parts of central Brazil finally received up to 3″ in places. More rains are expected today and into the end of the week, while the forecast continues to also see good rains into the end of the month. The monsoon appears to have arrived.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-10-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are again mixed/quiet in the overnight trading session to start Thursday, while the wheat market is higher and looking to close that way for the fourth consecutive day this week. As we mentioned earlier in the week, rising wheat prices continue to be a product of the situation in Russia, as dry weather continues to be an issue there and their FOB prices continue to increase. For corn and soybeans, we’d expected another choppy/two-sided day today as traders continue to wait for tomorrow’s USDA data. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny higher, soybean futures are down 2-3 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are quiet/lower, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 25 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 45 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 3rd is expected to show corn sales in a range of 900k-1.7 mil mt’s, soybeans sales in a range of 800k-1.7 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
For tomorrow’s USDA report, the trade sees corn yield coming in slightly lower than last month at 183.4 bu/acre, and sees soybean yield also slightly lower from last month at 53.1 bu/acre. Corn production is estimated at 15.155 bil bu’s, while soybean production is estimated at 4.579 bil bu’s.
US ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.962 bil bu’s compared to 2.057 mil last month, and soybean ending stocks are estimated at 549 mil bu’s, compared to 550 mil last month. At the world level, corn ending stocks are seen at 306.83 mmt’s compared to 308.35 last month, and soybean ending stocks are seen at 134.53 mmt’s, compared to 134.58 last month.
Private ag consultancy Strategie Grains sees total grain production in the EU at 258.5 mmt’s, which is barely changed from last month’s estimate. Soft wheat production was estimated at a 12-year low of 114.4 mmt’s, while corn production is seen at its third lowest level in the last 10 years at 58.1 mmt’s.
The Rosario Board of Trade lowered their estimate of the 2024/25 Argentine wheat crop by 1 mmt’s to 19.5 mmt’s; this is still up more than 30% from last season’s output. USDA’s current estimate is 18.0 mmt’s.
Russia’s Ag Ministry has called for an emergency meeting on October 11th to discuss export restrictions on wheat due to lower production and current exports nearing last year’s levels. This is attributing to this morning’s wheat rally.
Minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting showed several members were supportive of a smaller 25-basis point rate cut, though only one actually voted against it. Otherwise, details regarding future policy moves were scarce.
Equity markets on Thursday will be driven by this morning’s CPI/Inflation data for September, which are expected to show a slight deceleration in key metrics following the lowering of rates last month.
Hurricane Milton made landfall last night slightly earlier than expected on Florida’s west coast as a category 3 hurricane; winds of 120+mph accompanied the storm. As of this morning Milton has already exited Florida’s east coast and is back in the Atlantic as a category 1 storm.
Satellite data this morning shows rainfall totals of more than 11″ in places from the hurricane over the past 24 hours, which was slightly more than expected. Otherwise, the rest of the country remained mostly dry on Wednesday.
Forecasts otherwise remain mostly unchanged from yesterday; the next week will see continued dry conditions through the Corn Belt, while cool air provides frost potential to a large area next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
Week-two forecasts, however, are beginning to show better signs of precipitation returning into the end of the month, as this morning’s EU and GFS ensemble runs are both significantly wetter in the western/central part of the country by October 24th, and are also more in line with the EU AI model, which has had this shift for a couple days now.
Satellite data in South America as of 1am last night showed another good day of rains on Wednesday, as parts of central Brazil finally received up to 3″ in places. More rains are expected today and into the end of the week, while the forecast continues to also see good rains into the end of the month. The monsoon appears to have arrived.
Have a great day.
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