Good morning.
Ag markets are higher in light volume so far in the last overnight trading session of the week as the trade awaits the latest update from the USDA, due out at 1am central time this morning. The relatively small range of guesses on both corn and soybean yields leaves the market at risk of a shock reaction should one of these numbers come in out outside the ranges, but otherwise we’re of the opinion that there simply hasn’t been enough corn harvest done to warrant any major changes on that side of the report; biggest question for soybeans is whether the seemingly better early yields were good enough to offset some of the not-so-good later planted yields and whether this produces much change to the overall yield estimate. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report released yesterday, showed corn planting in Argentina at 18.6%, which is up from 13.7% last week. The Exchange has still not started giving estimates yet for soybean planting.
Ukraine’s ag minister, on Friday, said that he sees grain exports out of the country in the 2024/25 season falling to around 40 mmt’s, which would be down from this year’s nearly 51 mmt’s, due to falls in production caused by hot/dry weather this summer.
In a weekly report, French crop agency FranceAgriMer estimated corn harvest in the country at 6% complete as of Monday, which would be up from 2% the previous week but still well behind the five-year average of 40%.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 5th were seen at 370k tons, which was down 7.3% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 199k tons were down 5.7%, and soybean shipments at 147k tons were down 7.5%. Barge rates at St. Louis were up $1.28 from last week.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now sees just a 60% chance of La Niña emerging by the end of this year, down from the previous prediction of a more than 70% chance; the group also says if La Niña does emerge, it will likely be weak and short-lived.
This morning’s PPI report will guide equity market direction through the morning hours today, with the trade’s attention returning to China by the end of the day and into the weekend to see if any new stimulus measures are announced over the next 72 hours.
A host of Fed members are also slated to give comments on Friday, following comments from Raphael Bostic yesterday after the hotter-than-expected CPI data that he would be “totally comfortable with skipping a meeting” and pausing the rate cuts should the data warrant that.
Weather forecasts through the weekend look to hold in the same pattern we’ve been in much of this week; dry conditions remain through most of the Midwest and Corn Belt next week, though the models are continuing to see moisture in the northeast and into Canada by a week from now.
Temps will gradually begin to cool starting on Sunday for the eastern US; the cool air will be present in the east through the middle of the week, but ridging looks to allow warmth to return by the end of next week. High’s will dip into the 50’s for a wide portion of the Corn Belt next week, which keeps overnight frost potential likely.
Beyond next week, the models are also continuing to try and put down better precipitation through the mid-section of the country, which would be in line with what the week-two forecasts picked up on earlier in the week.
Satellite data for South America shows another good day of rains in south/central Brazil yesterday, with totals ranging anywhere from 0.1″ to 3″ in some localized areas. Argentina saw very light light/spotty showers in the north but was otherwise dry.
The latest five-day precipitation maps from NOAA show further rainfall chances of 0.5-2.5″ for most of the same areas in southern Brazil going into next week; similar totals are forecast for north/northeast Argentina, but locations will likely be spottier.
Rains will help to cool temps marginally in parts of southern Brazil, but otherwise the remainder of Brazil and most all of Argentina are seen in a warmer than average bias through next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-11-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets are higher in light volume so far in the last overnight trading session of the week as the trade awaits the latest update from the USDA, due out at 1am central time this morning. The relatively small range of guesses on both corn and soybean yields leaves the market at risk of a shock reaction should one of these numbers come in out outside the ranges, but otherwise we’re of the opinion that there simply hasn’t been enough corn harvest done to warrant any major changes on that side of the report; biggest question for soybeans is whether the seemingly better early yields were good enough to offset some of the not-so-good later planted yields and whether this produces much change to the overall yield estimate. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 3-4 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report released yesterday, showed corn planting in Argentina at 18.6%, which is up from 13.7% last week. The Exchange has still not started giving estimates yet for soybean planting.
Ukraine’s ag minister, on Friday, said that he sees grain exports out of the country in the 2024/25 season falling to around 40 mmt’s, which would be down from this year’s nearly 51 mmt’s, due to falls in production caused by hot/dry weather this summer.
In a weekly report, French crop agency FranceAgriMer estimated corn harvest in the country at 6% complete as of Monday, which would be up from 2% the previous week but still well behind the five-year average of 40%.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 5th were seen at 370k tons, which was down 7.3% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 199k tons were down 5.7%, and soybean shipments at 147k tons were down 7.5%. Barge rates at St. Louis were up $1.28 from last week.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now sees just a 60% chance of La Niña emerging by the end of this year, down from the previous prediction of a more than 70% chance; the group also says if La Niña does emerge, it will likely be weak and short-lived.
This morning’s PPI report will guide equity market direction through the morning hours today, with the trade’s attention returning to China by the end of the day and into the weekend to see if any new stimulus measures are announced over the next 72 hours.
A host of Fed members are also slated to give comments on Friday, following comments from Raphael Bostic yesterday after the hotter-than-expected CPI data that he would be “totally comfortable with skipping a meeting” and pausing the rate cuts should the data warrant that.
Weather forecasts through the weekend look to hold in the same pattern we’ve been in much of this week; dry conditions remain through most of the Midwest and Corn Belt next week, though the models are continuing to see moisture in the northeast and into Canada by a week from now.
Temps will gradually begin to cool starting on Sunday for the eastern US; the cool air will be present in the east through the middle of the week, but ridging looks to allow warmth to return by the end of next week. High’s will dip into the 50’s for a wide portion of the Corn Belt next week, which keeps overnight frost potential likely.
Beyond next week, the models are also continuing to try and put down better precipitation through the mid-section of the country, which would be in line with what the week-two forecasts picked up on earlier in the week.
Satellite data for South America shows another good day of rains in south/central Brazil yesterday, with totals ranging anywhere from 0.1″ to 3″ in some localized areas. Argentina saw very light light/spotty showers in the north but was otherwise dry.
The latest five-day precipitation maps from NOAA show further rainfall chances of 0.5-2.5″ for most of the same areas in southern Brazil going into next week; similar totals are forecast for north/northeast Argentina, but locations will likely be spottier.
Rains will help to cool temps marginally in parts of southern Brazil, but otherwise the remainder of Brazil and most all of Argentina are seen in a warmer than average bias through next week.
Have a great day.
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