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Grain Comments 10-09-2023

Good Morning

Crude oil is up nearly $3/barrel and has traded as much as $4.40/barrel higher overnight. Talk that Iran might have a hand in the Hamas attack is stoking concern of possible embargoes on Iranian oil shipments.

Good progress was made harvesting soybeans across the Midwest over the weekend. Favorable weather will continue today and tomorrow, but moderate to heavy rains are expected across a large swath of the corn belt including all of Iowa and the northern half of Illinois Wednesday through Friday.

Extended forecasts show below normal rainfall for the Midwest during the October 14 – 22 period.

China has returned to work following the weeklong Golden Week celebration. There is speculation that China will be buyers of U.S. soybeans and wheat this month.

The USDA is closed today to observe the Columbus Day holiday. The regular weekly USDA report will be delayed a day as a result. The Export Inspections report will be released tomorrow.

The October WASDE report will be released Thursday at 11 AM CDT. Traders are expecting the report to estimate the U.S. corn yield at 173.5 vs. 173.8 in the September report. Soybean yield is expected to be near 49.9 vs. 50.1 last month.

The recent appreciation of the U.S. Dollar against the Brazilian Real is aiding Brazilian competitiveness in export markets, resulting in increased optimism by Brazilian officials for fourth quarter exports.

The Plains and Midwest were mostly dry over the weekend save for some scattered rains in the northeastern corn belt; we will see a couple more dry days until the next system fires up in the heart of the belt Wednesday through Friday, exiting the ECB over the weekend. Coverage looks fairly widespread with amounts heavy in the northern belt, heaviest along the SD/NE border into IA/southern MN and northern IL/southern WI. Forecasts do look dry past that allowing harvest to resume, with temperatures dipping to below normal into the 6-10 day then recovering back towards normal or better for the 11-15.

Argentina will see some light rain chances east/northeast tomorrow and Wednesday, but the forecast there remains dry (and stressful) overall, for at least the next ten days. Brazil saw fairly widespread rains over the weekend, heaviest east/southeast, and that overall trend will continue through this work week with good action seen throughout. Rain shifts southward a bit for the 6- 10-day period with the north dry, but conditions for planting remain solid.

 

Have a great day!

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