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Grain Comments: 10-10-2023

Good Morning

Moderate to heavy rains will fall from Nebraska and South Dakota east though Iowa, southern Minnesota, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin from Wednesday through Friday. Extended forecasts still look good for harvest work with below normal rainfall forecasted for the Midwest October 15 – 23.

South American weather is less than ideal for planting. Central and northern Brazil need rain while southern Brazil is too wet. Much of Argentina has yet to recover from the drought that cut production there sharply earlier this year.

Estimates peg planting of Brazil’s first corn crop at 51% complete vs. the five-year average of 40%. Producers are expected to plant less first season corn this year compared to a year ago due to declining prices.

Soybean planting in Brazil was estimated to be 10% complete as of October 5th. This matches last year’s planting pace.

Export markets were quiet yesterday as China was on the sidelines watching prices decline.

The French agricultural ministry increased its estimate of France’s corn production from 11.5 to 12.1 MMTs. Last year’s production was 10.9 MMTs.

The International Monetary Fund warned that world inflation will remain a problem for the foreseeable future. It is advocating that interest rates need to remain elevated to help combat inflation.

The Plains and corn belt remain dry for one more day before the next event moves into the heart of the Midwest tomorrow, holding there through Friday and lingering in the eastern/northeastern belt as late as early next week. Coverage looks strong for the entire Midwest, heaviest from the SD/NE border through IA and MN, and right into the northern ECB states. Extended maps continue to run mostly dry, pushing the best rains out to the south if anything; temperatures will run cool through at least the next ten days, returning closer to normal or even slightly above into the 11–15-day period in late October.

Light rains are expected in northern/northeastern Argentina tomorrow, but the dry pattern will reign otherwise, leaving moisture supplies short throughout; Brazilian rains will be heavy up through the weekend, with the best amounts in the south going forward. Some excessive rain concerns will linger south with dryness holding north, but BRZ moisture supplies in solid shape overall.

Have a great day.

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