Grain Comments: 10.11.23

Grain prices are slightly lower this morning, with narrow ranges noted during the overnight session. Corn, beans, and wheat continue to trade sideways in broad ranges. Crude is lower this morning. The dollar is flat and equity futures are higher.

Today’s Reports: September PPI

• The USDA report will be released tomorrow. Corn and bean production will be update as well as the ag balance sheets. The trade is looking for slightly lower yields on corn and soybeans. Lower corn ending stocks are expected, but higher bean stocks are expected as well. The changes to the 23/24 balance sheets will be partially influenced by beginning stocks changes, as the USDA adjusts the 22/23 tables due to the differences seen in the Sept. 29th stocks report. Wheat ending stocks are expected higher due to bigger final wheat production estimates on that same report.
• The crop progress report yesterday afternoon showed 34% of the corn is harvested and 43% of the beans. Winter wheat is 57% planted.
• Wheat has been under pressure this week as it was rumored yesterday that Egypt bought Russian wheat in a privately negotiated deal below Russia’s floor price. The Russian floor price of $270/ton had temporarily given support to global wheat prices.
• ANEC estimated that Brazil corn exports could swell to 9.2 MMT for October, up from 6.17 MMT last year.
• Brazil’s Madeira River has some spots that are showing water levels at 56 year lows.
• Southern areas of Brazil are still too wet. The central and northern areas of Brazil have been dry, but isolated showers are starting to fall. The extended forecast promises a bit more rain, which would help planting progress if achieved. Argentina has been too dry as well, but it is also expected to see better rain activity in the 2nd week of the current forecast.
• Heavy rains will fall across South Dakota, Iowa, and the northern half of Illinois through the end of this week. That will slow harvest in those areas. Frosty conditions were seen across the northern half of the Midwest again overnight, but damage is not expected. The extended forecast shows more cool weather for the eastern half of the Midwest.
• The weekly ethanol report will be delayed until Thursday. Export sales are delayed until Friday.
• September PPI numbers are out this morning. CPI figures will be out tomorrow morning. The FED next meets on Oct. 31/Nov. 1. The trade expects a steady interest rate decision.