Grain Comments: 10.12.23

Grain prices are steady to slightly higher this morning as the trade awaits today’s WASDE report. Crude oil is trading slightly higher, dollar is slightly lower and equity futures are trading 100 points higher..

Today’s Reports: USDA WASDE; September CPI: Weekly EIA data

• The USDA WASDE Report report will be released today at 11:00 AM cst. Corn and bean production will be updated as well as the balance sheets.

• The trade is looking for slightly lower yields on corn and soybeans. Lower corn ending stocks are expected, but higher bean stocks are expected as well. The changes to the 23/24 balance sheets will be partially influenced by beginning stocks changes, as the USDA adjusts the 22/23 tables due to the differences seen in the Sept. 29th stocks report. Wheat ending stocks are expected higher due to bigger final wheat production estimates on that same report.

Average trade estimates for today’s WASDE report

Corn

Production – 15.101 billion bu. versus 15.134 billion in Sept.

• Yield – 173.5 bpa versus 173.8 in Sept.

Ending Stocks- 2.156 billion bu. versus 2.221 billion in Sept.

Soybeans

•  Production – 4.134 billion bu. verus 4.146 billion in Sept.

Yield – 49.9 bpa versus 50.1 bpa in Sept.

Ending Stocks- 236 million bu. versus 220 million last month.

Wheat

Ending Stocks- 651 million bu. versus 615 million in Sept.

• The Rosario Commodity Exchange cut their Argie wheat crop estimate to 14.3 MMTs, down from 15.0 MMTs. The reduction was due the current drought. The USDA in Sept pegged Argentina wheat production at 16.5 MMTs.

• The Rosario Commodity Exchange increased its soybean production estimate to 50.0 MMTs.

• Putin signed a decree that forces Russian exporters of Ag goods to convert all foreign currency into rubles.

• Today is the last day of the Goldman Roll.

• September’s CPI is expected to show a 0.3% rise on a month-over-month basis and a 3.6% increase compared to a year ago. This would be lower than August’s reading  of 0.6% and 3.7% respectively.

• Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting were released on  Wednesday and indicated that officials expect restrictive policies to remain in place until they are sure inflation is headed back down toward the 2% target range. Policymakers were however divided on whether further interest rate hikes will be needed to achieve this.

• Heavy rains will fall across South Dakota, Iowa, and the northern half of Illinois through the end of this week. That will slow harvest in those areas.