Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are mostly lower this morning to start Tuesday trade, with soybean oil pacing the downside decline on spill-over selling from the energy/outside markets and the grain markets again seeing small trading ranges over the last several hours despite having made another round of new lows for the move in the case of corn and new contract lows in the case of wheat overnight. Despite there being nothing new on the government shutdown situation still, the data front will be a little more active today as traders expect to see weekly export inspection data that hasn’t been cut-off yet, as well as updated crop information out of South America. However, this information will take back seat to the ongoing China situation should any headlines pop up there as this remains the number one driver of price into month end. The corn market starting Tuesday is unchanged to a penny lower, soybeans are 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points, but well off the lows. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower this morning, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 250 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 60 points, and the NASDAQ is down 270 points. Gold futures are also again higher and have again made another round of new contract highs.
Brazil’s CONAB will release updated monthly crop estimates at 7am central time this morning. The report will be the first for the 2025/26 crop year, which traders see showing expected soybean production in the coming season slightly higher from preliminary estimates at 179.0 MMTs, while corn production is also seen up slightly from preliminary estimates in recent weeks at 141.3 MMTs; both figures, if accurate, would also be up from 2024/25.
CONAB, in a weekly report released last night, also showed Brazil soybean planting as of October 11th at 11.1% complete, which compares to 9.1% on the 12th last year and the recent five-year average of 16.9%. The group also saw first crop corn planting at 31.2% complete, which compares to 28.8% last year and the five-year average of 30.7%, and saw wheat harvest at 35.1% complete, compared to 41.8% last year and 38.4% average.
Also, out this morning there will be weekly export inspection data for the week ending October 9th, which was delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday but has not been effected by the government shutdown. Last week, corn inspections totaled 1.6 MMTs, soybean inspections totaled 768k MTs, and wheat inspections totaled 505k MTs.
We touched on it in yesterday’s afternoon commentary, but traders see corn harvest across the US at 44% complete as of Sunday, while soybean harvest is estimated to be 58% complete; these figures compare to 47% and 67% respectively last year. Traders also estimated winter wheat planting at 66% complete, which would be up from an estimate of 50% last week.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that ongoing working-level talks had been held in the last 24 hours under the US-China trade consultation mechanism, showing signs that there was at least some sort of progress still being made despite an increase in tensions again late last week. Beijing emphasized that the US correct what it describes as “wrong practices”, while the US side, via Treasury Secretary Bessent, said it had pushed back against China’s new export controls but emphasized that communication remained active.
Staying on the same theme, China also has officially begun imposing new port fees on US built ships as pf Tuesday but offered some semblance of flexibility as they exempted Chinese-built ships operated by US entities. However, Beijing also sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping conglomerate, which the markets are reacting negatively to this morning. China added that it reserves the right to adjust the fee levels, which illustrates the move is likely nothing more than a tit-for-tat retaliatory effort against similar fees imposed by the US that also go into effect today.
A French farmer group on Tuesday said that their country is expected to produce just 12.9 MMTs of corn in the current season, which would be down around 3% compared to the recent five-year average. The group said yields on irrigated ground would likely be better, but that the non-irrigated areas saw extended periods of hot, dry, weather throughout the summer. The estimate compares to the current French government figure of 13.4 MMTs. Meanwhile, the French government also said in a Tuesday report that they see soft-wheat production in the country at 33.2 MMTs this year, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 33.3 MMTs.
Private shipping data for the month of September shows Russian seaborn grain exports in the month at just 5.1 MMTs, which is down more than 10% from the same month last year; cumulative exports in the current marketing year are seen at 13.1 MMTs, which is down nearly 21% from last year. Seaborn exports accounted for roughly 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last year.
Nothing more than light showers fell across the US Midwest on Monday, as weather continues to be generally conducive to harvest activity for the most part. Forecasts are little changed this morning for the rest of the week, with the EU model continuing to see mostly dry conditions in the south/southeastern parts of the Midwest, while the north and northwest see light shower potential beginning through the day and lasting through the end of the week and into the weekend. There are a few isolated areas that could see accumulation of up to an inch between now and Saturday morning, but for the most part, totals will be seen generally around a couple tenths to a half inch or so.
Daytime highs through the Midwest will continue to be a bit of a mixed bag today and through the week this week, as cooler air stays blocked to the west/northwest via high pressure in the east, which in turn, is keeping the east warmer. The 10–15-day outlook from the EU model this morning is cooler again across almost all of the US, but the GFS is like prior runs and has not taken this shift cooler.
Argentina will be drier over the next week or so but has been well-watered recently otherwise, while forecasts for the heart of Brazil are seemingly getting wetter by the day as the rainy season arrives over the next several days. Totals continue to be seen heaviest in the south and far northwest, but even on the low end, forecast totals are no less than inch into Monday next week.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-14-2025
Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are mostly lower this morning to start Tuesday trade, with soybean oil pacing the downside decline on spill-over selling from the energy/outside markets and the grain markets again seeing small trading ranges over the last several hours despite having made another round of new lows for the move in the case of corn and new contract lows in the case of wheat overnight. Despite there being nothing new on the government shutdown situation still, the data front will be a little more active today as traders expect to see weekly export inspection data that hasn’t been cut-off yet, as well as updated crop information out of South America. However, this information will take back seat to the ongoing China situation should any headlines pop up there as this remains the number one driver of price into month end. The corn market starting Tuesday is unchanged to a penny lower, soybeans are 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is down 40-50 points, but well off the lows. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower this morning, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 250 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 60 points, and the NASDAQ is down 270 points. Gold futures are also again higher and have again made another round of new contract highs.
Brazil’s CONAB will release updated monthly crop estimates at 7am central time this morning. The report will be the first for the 2025/26 crop year, which traders see showing expected soybean production in the coming season slightly higher from preliminary estimates at 179.0 MMTs, while corn production is also seen up slightly from preliminary estimates in recent weeks at 141.3 MMTs; both figures, if accurate, would also be up from 2024/25.
CONAB, in a weekly report released last night, also showed Brazil soybean planting as of October 11th at 11.1% complete, which compares to 9.1% on the 12th last year and the recent five-year average of 16.9%. The group also saw first crop corn planting at 31.2% complete, which compares to 28.8% last year and the five-year average of 30.7%, and saw wheat harvest at 35.1% complete, compared to 41.8% last year and 38.4% average.
Also, out this morning there will be weekly export inspection data for the week ending October 9th, which was delayed a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday but has not been effected by the government shutdown. Last week, corn inspections totaled 1.6 MMTs, soybean inspections totaled 768k MTs, and wheat inspections totaled 505k MTs.
We touched on it in yesterday’s afternoon commentary, but traders see corn harvest across the US at 44% complete as of Sunday, while soybean harvest is estimated to be 58% complete; these figures compare to 47% and 67% respectively last year. Traders also estimated winter wheat planting at 66% complete, which would be up from an estimate of 50% last week.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that ongoing working-level talks had been held in the last 24 hours under the US-China trade consultation mechanism, showing signs that there was at least some sort of progress still being made despite an increase in tensions again late last week. Beijing emphasized that the US correct what it describes as “wrong practices”, while the US side, via Treasury Secretary Bessent, said it had pushed back against China’s new export controls but emphasized that communication remained active.
Staying on the same theme, China also has officially begun imposing new port fees on US built ships as pf Tuesday but offered some semblance of flexibility as they exempted Chinese-built ships operated by US entities. However, Beijing also sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping conglomerate, which the markets are reacting negatively to this morning. China added that it reserves the right to adjust the fee levels, which illustrates the move is likely nothing more than a tit-for-tat retaliatory effort against similar fees imposed by the US that also go into effect today.
A French farmer group on Tuesday said that their country is expected to produce just 12.9 MMTs of corn in the current season, which would be down around 3% compared to the recent five-year average. The group said yields on irrigated ground would likely be better, but that the non-irrigated areas saw extended periods of hot, dry, weather throughout the summer. The estimate compares to the current French government figure of 13.4 MMTs. Meanwhile, the French government also said in a Tuesday report that they see soft-wheat production in the country at 33.2 MMTs this year, down slightly from last month’s estimate of 33.3 MMTs.
Private shipping data for the month of September shows Russian seaborn grain exports in the month at just 5.1 MMTs, which is down more than 10% from the same month last year; cumulative exports in the current marketing year are seen at 13.1 MMTs, which is down nearly 21% from last year. Seaborn exports accounted for roughly 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last year.
Nothing more than light showers fell across the US Midwest on Monday, as weather continues to be generally conducive to harvest activity for the most part. Forecasts are little changed this morning for the rest of the week, with the EU model continuing to see mostly dry conditions in the south/southeastern parts of the Midwest, while the north and northwest see light shower potential beginning through the day and lasting through the end of the week and into the weekend. There are a few isolated areas that could see accumulation of up to an inch between now and Saturday morning, but for the most part, totals will be seen generally around a couple tenths to a half inch or so.
Daytime highs through the Midwest will continue to be a bit of a mixed bag today and through the week this week, as cooler air stays blocked to the west/northwest via high pressure in the east, which in turn, is keeping the east warmer. The 10–15-day outlook from the EU model this morning is cooler again across almost all of the US, but the GFS is like prior runs and has not taken this shift cooler.
Argentina will be drier over the next week or so but has been well-watered recently otherwise, while forecasts for the heart of Brazil are seemingly getting wetter by the day as the rainy season arrives over the next several days. Totals continue to be seen heaviest in the south and far northwest, but even on the low end, forecast totals are no less than inch into Monday next week.
Have a great day!
View All News >