Good morning.
The ag space is yet again quietly lower this morning to start Wednesday in what has been another low volume, low trading range type of overnight session, with soybeans leading the decline on another Trump social media post that came after the markets had closed for the day yesterday afternoon. We would note that it appears spec traders and their computer programs are adapting to the more regular flow of US-China headlines and are not reacting nearly as sharply as they did at the beginning of the month. The trade is becoming aware that there are going to be incendiary headlines from both sides between now and October 31st, but that these headlines may or may not mean anything as it pertains to the likelihood of the planned meeting between Trump and Xi. Corn futures at mid-week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are quietly higher; soybean meal is up around 10 or 20 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 20-25 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 240 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold overnight.
NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release updated monthly soybean crush data at 11am central time this morning. Traders see the report showing US soybean crush in the month of September at 186.34 mil bu, which would be down 2% from August but up 5% from September last year. Traders also see NOPA showing soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.220 bil lbs., which would be down 2% from last month.
President Trump on Tuesday afternoon penned to Truth Social that he was considering terminating some business with China as a result of what he called their purposeful shunning of US soybeans. The post directly mentioned used cooking oil, which Trump said the US could easily produce and not buy from China, though imports of the product from the Asian country are already down more than 60% through August from last year. The news rallied soybean oil futures to start the evening last night, but prices have since pulled back.
Private industry data out of India on Wednesday showed the country’s palm oil imports in the month of September fell to just over 829k MTs, which was the lowest monthly figure since May and down some 16% from the month prior. Meanwhile, data also showed Indian soybean oil imports in the month at just over 503k MTs, which is the highest level since July of 2022 and is up nearly 37% from the month prior. Sources expect this trend to continue for October, seeing palm oil imports in the month at around 600k MTs, while soybean imports are seen at around 450k MTs.
Canada’s ag minister said during a joint press conference with his Mexican counterpart in Mexico City this week that he sees Mexico as a possible market for some of its canola exports, which have been upended in recent months due to new tariffs from China, but did not go into a lot of further detail as to when shipments may possibly start occurring or how much quantity was expected.
Data from the European Commission on Wednesday showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year have continued to lag prior years’ pace at just 5.5 MMTs as of October 12th, which compares to 7.1 MMTs through the same period last year. Barley exports are seen up 49% from last year at 2.4 MMTs, and corn imports are seen down 27% from last year at 4.3 MMTs. The Commission notes data continues to be incomplete for several countries since the 2023/24 marketing year, including France and Bulgaria, while lineup data would indicate actual exports are closer to the 8-9 MMT ballpark.
The French Farm Ministry said on Tuesday that that they now see the country’s corn output in 2025 at 13.7 MMTs, up from 13.6 previously, while soft wheat production was seen at 33.2 MMTs, down from a previous estimate of 33.3 MMTs. The corn figure would be down 7.6% from last year, while the wheat figure would be up more than 29%.
South American grains trader Amaggi and biofuel producer Inpasa said in a joint statement on Tuesday that they were abandoning plans to form a joint venture in Brazil’s corn ethanol market, saying both companies had concluded they had different visions regarding the structure and governance of the project. The two groups in August had announced plans to build three corn-ethanol plants across Brazil that would’ve each had yearly processing capacity of around 2 MMTs of corn.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that perceptions of the US labor market continue to trend downward, indicating a gradual weakening in job growth and hiring confidence. His comments suggest that the Fed sees the cooling labor conditions as part of a broader economic slowdown and reinforces expectations that they may consider further rate cuts if the labor market continues to lose momentum. The CME’s FedWatch tool this morning shows a near-97% chance at another quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) said on Tuesday that it saw global growth in 2025 now at 3.2%, which is up from a previous estimate of 3.0% due to the fact that what they called the “hit” from Trump’s tariffs had been “modest” to this point in the year though inflation remains elevated and additional trade risks still linger. Regionally, the US forecast was seen at 2.0%, China was seen at 4.8%, India was seen at 6.6% and the EU at 1.2%.
Overnight weather models this morning have continued to trend wetter in the northern Plains through the end of the week and into the weekend and have also trended wetter through the Great Lakes region and the central/eastern Midwest into the first part of next week. The EU’s model output this morning now sees totals through parts of IL/IN/WI/MI at around an inch to maybe more, with similar totals noted as possible all the way through the mid-south and into the southeast. Parts of MT and ND will also see precipitation that could exceed an inch, but SD/NE/MN look to see mostly lesser totals of just a tenth or two.
On the temperature side, not a lot new again this morning as the models are still in good agreement on the west staying cool and the east staying warm through at least the weekend and into the first part of next week. The EU’s forecast this morning is warmer than yesterday’s in the 10–15-day period and is now more like the GFS model in continuing to show slightly warmer than normal daytime highs throughout the Midwest into Halloween, which is raising our confidence that warm air lingers.
The forecast for South America continues to show good rains for most all of Brazil’s growing regions through the weekend and into next week, with the heaviest totals still seen for the southern and south-central parts of the country. Argentina, meanwhile, will see moisture from this system in the north, but most of the main growing regions further to the south will see just light precipitation potential into the end of the week next week before another storm system is in the model for October 23/24/25.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-15-2025
Good morning.
The ag space is yet again quietly lower this morning to start Wednesday in what has been another low volume, low trading range type of overnight session, with soybeans leading the decline on another Trump social media post that came after the markets had closed for the day yesterday afternoon. We would note that it appears spec traders and their computer programs are adapting to the more regular flow of US-China headlines and are not reacting nearly as sharply as they did at the beginning of the month. The trade is becoming aware that there are going to be incendiary headlines from both sides between now and October 31st, but that these headlines may or may not mean anything as it pertains to the likelihood of the planned meeting between Trump and Xi. Corn futures at mid-week are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are quietly higher; soybean meal is up around 10 or 20 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 20-25 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 240 points. Another round of new contract highs for gold overnight.
NOPA (the National Oilseed Processors Association) is set to release updated monthly soybean crush data at 11am central time this morning. Traders see the report showing US soybean crush in the month of September at 186.34 mil bu, which would be down 2% from August but up 5% from September last year. Traders also see NOPA showing soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month at 1.220 bil lbs., which would be down 2% from last month.
President Trump on Tuesday afternoon penned to Truth Social that he was considering terminating some business with China as a result of what he called their purposeful shunning of US soybeans. The post directly mentioned used cooking oil, which Trump said the US could easily produce and not buy from China, though imports of the product from the Asian country are already down more than 60% through August from last year. The news rallied soybean oil futures to start the evening last night, but prices have since pulled back.
Private industry data out of India on Wednesday showed the country’s palm oil imports in the month of September fell to just over 829k MTs, which was the lowest monthly figure since May and down some 16% from the month prior. Meanwhile, data also showed Indian soybean oil imports in the month at just over 503k MTs, which is the highest level since July of 2022 and is up nearly 37% from the month prior. Sources expect this trend to continue for October, seeing palm oil imports in the month at around 600k MTs, while soybean imports are seen at around 450k MTs.
Canada’s ag minister said during a joint press conference with his Mexican counterpart in Mexico City this week that he sees Mexico as a possible market for some of its canola exports, which have been upended in recent months due to new tariffs from China, but did not go into a lot of further detail as to when shipments may possibly start occurring or how much quantity was expected.
Data from the European Commission on Wednesday showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year have continued to lag prior years’ pace at just 5.5 MMTs as of October 12th, which compares to 7.1 MMTs through the same period last year. Barley exports are seen up 49% from last year at 2.4 MMTs, and corn imports are seen down 27% from last year at 4.3 MMTs. The Commission notes data continues to be incomplete for several countries since the 2023/24 marketing year, including France and Bulgaria, while lineup data would indicate actual exports are closer to the 8-9 MMT ballpark.
The French Farm Ministry said on Tuesday that that they now see the country’s corn output in 2025 at 13.7 MMTs, up from 13.6 previously, while soft wheat production was seen at 33.2 MMTs, down from a previous estimate of 33.3 MMTs. The corn figure would be down 7.6% from last year, while the wheat figure would be up more than 29%.
South American grains trader Amaggi and biofuel producer Inpasa said in a joint statement on Tuesday that they were abandoning plans to form a joint venture in Brazil’s corn ethanol market, saying both companies had concluded they had different visions regarding the structure and governance of the project. The two groups in August had announced plans to build three corn-ethanol plants across Brazil that would’ve each had yearly processing capacity of around 2 MMTs of corn.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that perceptions of the US labor market continue to trend downward, indicating a gradual weakening in job growth and hiring confidence. His comments suggest that the Fed sees the cooling labor conditions as part of a broader economic slowdown and reinforces expectations that they may consider further rate cuts if the labor market continues to lose momentum. The CME’s FedWatch tool this morning shows a near-97% chance at another quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) said on Tuesday that it saw global growth in 2025 now at 3.2%, which is up from a previous estimate of 3.0% due to the fact that what they called the “hit” from Trump’s tariffs had been “modest” to this point in the year though inflation remains elevated and additional trade risks still linger. Regionally, the US forecast was seen at 2.0%, China was seen at 4.8%, India was seen at 6.6% and the EU at 1.2%.
Overnight weather models this morning have continued to trend wetter in the northern Plains through the end of the week and into the weekend and have also trended wetter through the Great Lakes region and the central/eastern Midwest into the first part of next week. The EU’s model output this morning now sees totals through parts of IL/IN/WI/MI at around an inch to maybe more, with similar totals noted as possible all the way through the mid-south and into the southeast. Parts of MT and ND will also see precipitation that could exceed an inch, but SD/NE/MN look to see mostly lesser totals of just a tenth or two.
On the temperature side, not a lot new again this morning as the models are still in good agreement on the west staying cool and the east staying warm through at least the weekend and into the first part of next week. The EU’s forecast this morning is warmer than yesterday’s in the 10–15-day period and is now more like the GFS model in continuing to show slightly warmer than normal daytime highs throughout the Midwest into Halloween, which is raising our confidence that warm air lingers.
The forecast for South America continues to show good rains for most all of Brazil’s growing regions through the weekend and into next week, with the heaviest totals still seen for the southern and south-central parts of the country. Argentina, meanwhile, will see moisture from this system in the north, but most of the main growing regions further to the south will see just light precipitation potential into the end of the week next week before another storm system is in the model for October 23/24/25.
Have a great day.
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