Good morning.
As you’re probably becoming accustomed to by now, the ag space across the CBOT is once again quietly mixed this morning to start Thursday trade, with the most observable feature through the overnight hours again being the lack of volume and small trading ranges in most of the markets. Between final US crop yields, which likely won’t be known for some time amid the growing possibility that we don’t see a November crop report, and the ongoing back and forth with China, the environment just isn’t ripe for speculative trade activity, which, for the most part, has kept futures markets dull and lifeless through the gut slot of harvest. China headlines are the most likely to alter this situation in the short term, while otherwise, we expect choppy trade to continue. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around 10 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 90 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 140 points. Gold futures are again higher and have again made new contract highs.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA, delayed a day this week for the Monday holiday, is expected to show average daily ethanol production in the week between 1.050-1.075 mil bbls/day, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.650-23.000 mil bbls. The report will be out at 11am central time.
The regular weekly export sales report continues to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, but a Reuters poll of analysts shows that traders expected the report would’ve shown corn sales in the week ending October 9th between 900k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 500k-1.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-650k MTs. Last week, traders estimated sales between 1.2-2.0 MMTs for corn, between 600k-1.6 mil MTs for soybeans, and between 350k-600k MTs for wheat.
Cash sources familiar with the situation said China still has around 8-9 MMTs of soybean purchase needs to fill for the Dec-Jan time period but has been holding off on making those purchases to this point due to the high price of beans out of Brazil. The traders say China could tap into its state reserves to fill some of these needs as they continue to shun supplies from the US due to the ongoing trade war. Brazil bean basis has been holding at roughly $2.80-2.90 above the Nov futures contract, while US beans are priced around $1.70 above the Nov.
French crop body FranceAgriMer said on Wednesday that the export forecast for French corn and wheat had improved on better sales within the EU; the group raised the wheat export forecast from 14.7 MMTs to 15.0 MMTs, while the corn export forecast was raised from 4.8 MMTs to 5.1 MMTs. Barley exports were also raised from 5.6 MMTs to 5.7 MMTs.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday that Russia had recently resumed wheat exports to Indonesia this month, following virtually no trade between the two countries for the first nine months of 2025 as negotiations between the two for access to Russia’s markets were ongoing. Data shows Russia had exported just 123,000 tons of grain to Indonesia this year, with all of that business being done in January; in 2024, grain exports to Indonesia totaled around 1.3 MMTs.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Wednesday that a “clever and generous” bailout package for farmers will be introduced as soon as the government reopens, according to media outlet Axios. Hassett didn’t go into further detail on the plan, while signs of that reopening actually occurring have remained mostly non-existent.
Also, out of D.C. on Wednesday, President Trump said that Indian PM Modi assured him India will stop purchasing Russian oil, marking a significant diplomatic win for Washington’s efforts to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Reuters reported that several Indian refiners are preparing to gradually reduce imports of Russian oil, while Trump added that his next goal is to persuade China to take similar actions.
We don’t have a lot new to report on the China situation this morning following a day of lashings and beratements from both USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday. The two indicated that they were willing to work with China, but they would not allow Beijing to dominate rare earth supply chains, which now seems to be at the heart of the negotiations. Between that and export controls on chips and other AI-related products, it would appear soybeans, and the US farmer, are falling further down the Trump administration’s trade priority list.
Spotty showers continued to dot the western Midwest on Wednesday, though totals were scattered and generally no more than a tenth or two at best. Models see additional precipitation potential for this area through the end of the week this week and into the weekend, though the heaviest totals will be mostly west of the Corn Belt region into MT and WY. Then as we get into the early part of next week, models have also trended wetter through the eastern and central Midwest again and now see a band of 2-3″ of rainfall possible from roughly St. Louis to northern Michigan and then further up into Canada.
Totals throughout the rest of the region are seen in a lesser 0.5-1″ range generally speaking through the end of the day on Monday, but even these lesser totals will have significant impacts in areas as rainfall deficits in places here since the end of July continue to be extreme in some cases. Following this system, the back half of the week next week looks to then trend back drier again, though the week two precipitation map for the week following shifted back wetter again overnight.
Not a lot new again this morning in South America, with the forecast for Argentina remaining drier through most of the ag regions into the beginning of the week next week, while rainfall is seen expanding northward through Brazil between the end of the week this week and the middle of the week next week. Heaviest totals look to continue favoring regions in the south, but most all of the country’s growing areas look to receive some sort of measurable precipitation between now and Wednesday.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-16-2025
Good morning.
As you’re probably becoming accustomed to by now, the ag space across the CBOT is once again quietly mixed this morning to start Thursday trade, with the most observable feature through the overnight hours again being the lack of volume and small trading ranges in most of the markets. Between final US crop yields, which likely won’t be known for some time amid the growing possibility that we don’t see a November crop report, and the ongoing back and forth with China, the environment just isn’t ripe for speculative trade activity, which, for the most part, has kept futures markets dull and lifeless through the gut slot of harvest. China headlines are the most likely to alter this situation in the short term, while otherwise, we expect choppy trade to continue. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around 10 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 90 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 140 points. Gold futures are again higher and have again made new contract highs.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA, delayed a day this week for the Monday holiday, is expected to show average daily ethanol production in the week between 1.050-1.075 mil bbls/day, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.650-23.000 mil bbls. The report will be out at 11am central time.
The regular weekly export sales report continues to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, but a Reuters poll of analysts shows that traders expected the report would’ve shown corn sales in the week ending October 9th between 900k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 500k-1.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 300k-650k MTs. Last week, traders estimated sales between 1.2-2.0 MMTs for corn, between 600k-1.6 mil MTs for soybeans, and between 350k-600k MTs for wheat.
Cash sources familiar with the situation said China still has around 8-9 MMTs of soybean purchase needs to fill for the Dec-Jan time period but has been holding off on making those purchases to this point due to the high price of beans out of Brazil. The traders say China could tap into its state reserves to fill some of these needs as they continue to shun supplies from the US due to the ongoing trade war. Brazil bean basis has been holding at roughly $2.80-2.90 above the Nov futures contract, while US beans are priced around $1.70 above the Nov.
French crop body FranceAgriMer said on Wednesday that the export forecast for French corn and wheat had improved on better sales within the EU; the group raised the wheat export forecast from 14.7 MMTs to 15.0 MMTs, while the corn export forecast was raised from 4.8 MMTs to 5.1 MMTs. Barley exports were also raised from 5.6 MMTs to 5.7 MMTs.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday that Russia had recently resumed wheat exports to Indonesia this month, following virtually no trade between the two countries for the first nine months of 2025 as negotiations between the two for access to Russia’s markets were ongoing. Data shows Russia had exported just 123,000 tons of grain to Indonesia this year, with all of that business being done in January; in 2024, grain exports to Indonesia totaled around 1.3 MMTs.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Wednesday that a “clever and generous” bailout package for farmers will be introduced as soon as the government reopens, according to media outlet Axios. Hassett didn’t go into further detail on the plan, while signs of that reopening actually occurring have remained mostly non-existent.
Also, out of D.C. on Wednesday, President Trump said that Indian PM Modi assured him India will stop purchasing Russian oil, marking a significant diplomatic win for Washington’s efforts to curb Moscow’s energy revenues. Reuters reported that several Indian refiners are preparing to gradually reduce imports of Russian oil, while Trump added that his next goal is to persuade China to take similar actions.
We don’t have a lot new to report on the China situation this morning following a day of lashings and beratements from both USTR Greer and Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday. The two indicated that they were willing to work with China, but they would not allow Beijing to dominate rare earth supply chains, which now seems to be at the heart of the negotiations. Between that and export controls on chips and other AI-related products, it would appear soybeans, and the US farmer, are falling further down the Trump administration’s trade priority list.
Spotty showers continued to dot the western Midwest on Wednesday, though totals were scattered and generally no more than a tenth or two at best. Models see additional precipitation potential for this area through the end of the week this week and into the weekend, though the heaviest totals will be mostly west of the Corn Belt region into MT and WY. Then as we get into the early part of next week, models have also trended wetter through the eastern and central Midwest again and now see a band of 2-3″ of rainfall possible from roughly St. Louis to northern Michigan and then further up into Canada.
Totals throughout the rest of the region are seen in a lesser 0.5-1″ range generally speaking through the end of the day on Monday, but even these lesser totals will have significant impacts in areas as rainfall deficits in places here since the end of July continue to be extreme in some cases. Following this system, the back half of the week next week looks to then trend back drier again, though the week two precipitation map for the week following shifted back wetter again overnight.
Not a lot new again this morning in South America, with the forecast for Argentina remaining drier through most of the ag regions into the beginning of the week next week, while rainfall is seen expanding northward through Brazil between the end of the week this week and the middle of the week next week. Heaviest totals look to continue favoring regions in the south, but most all of the country’s growing areas look to receive some sort of measurable precipitation between now and Wednesday.
Have a great day.
View All News >