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Grain Comments: 10-19-2023

Good Morning

Grains are mixed this morning. Soybeans are up 2-3 cents, wheat down 2-3 cents and corn down 1-2 cents. Soybean meal trading higher on continued strong demand while soy oil futures are down slightly on oil share spread unwinding. Nearby WTI crude is down 70 cents/barrel. The equity markets are slightly lower and the dollar index is nearly unchanged.

Argentina will hold a presidential election on October 22, with a fiery libertarian economist, an economy minister and a center-right former security minister vying in a tight race. Front runner freshman lawmaker Javier Milei who leads most of the polls, has railed against what he calls the political caste. Milei has pledged to abolish the Central Bank, slash public spending and dollarize the economy.

Rumors circulating China is seeking additional US wheat.

Ongoing heat/dryness will continue to blanket central and northern Brazil for the next 7 days with triple digit temps possible. Some lite rains are forecasted for the middle of next week for Mato Grosso and Goias.

Weather models continue to show a pattern shift for Argentina which should bring much needed moisture to ag producing areas. However, it is likely too late to benefit wheat yield.

There continues to be ongoing talk Argentina wheat production will drop 1.5 to 2.0 MMTs below the current USDA estimate of 16.5 MMts.

Severe drought in the Amazon is forcing Brazilian grain exporters to divert a small number of export cargos to southern port terminals instead of northern ports. Northern routes have been instrumental to helping the country boost corn and soybeans exports over the past few years.

Federal Chair Powell is set to speak at 11:00 CST to the Economic Club of New York.

China has approved 37 genetically modified corn seed varieties and 14 GMO soybean varieties, taking it close to commercial planting of GMO corn and soybeans .The varieties approved by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in a notice on Tuesday include corn varieties owned by Yuan Longping High-tech Agriculture Co, Syngenta and Dabeinong.

Cattle on Feed Report will be released tomorrow.

Have a great day!

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