Grain Comments: 10.20.23

Grains are mixed this morning. Soybeans are trading weaker, wheat is firmer and corn is trading either side of unchanged. For the week (thus far), beans are 33 1/2 cents higher, SRW is up 13 3/4 cents, HRW is 20 1/4 cents firmer, and corn is 14 cents higher. WTI crude is firmer this morning, trading up 1.23 cents/barrel. The equity markets are mixed and the dollar index is lower.

Today’s Reports: Cattle on Feed

• Grain markets continue to monitor ongoing geopolitical tensions along with S. American weather.

• Wars continue in the Black Sea and Middle East. Last night, President Biden addressed the country in which he stated “American leadership” is necessary to keep freedom alive in both the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The speech came as Biden prepares to ask Congress for $14 bln. in aid to Israel and $60 bln. to Ukraine.

• Crude oil continues to firm. Despite more crude barrels hitting the market from Venezuela, traders appear to be focusing more on the potential for supply tightening in certain Middle Eastern countries as a result of the war in Israel. Talk that some Iranian officials are calling for an oil embargo on Israel is sparking the concern. At this point, OPEC has indicated it has no immediate plans to intervene in the region.

• Argentina is set to hold their Presidential election this Sunday. Voters will choose between libertarian front-runner Javier Milei, Peronist economy minister Sergio Massa, and conservative Patricia Bullrich. Front runner Milei has made waves by promising to eliminate export taxes on grain, dollarize the economy, and eliminate the central bank. Agricultural producers have favored his candidacy.

• Showers fell over the western U.S. belt mid-week slowing harvest progress. Current weather maps show rain through Saturday for the eastern belt, which will also likely result in harvest delays. Beyond that, mostly dry conditions are expected until the early to middle part of next week before a wetter pattern develops. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its Winter Outlook for 2023 and 2024 pointing to the potential for warmer than average conditions in Iowa and Illinois.