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Grain Comments: 10.23.23

Commodities are mostly lower this morning. SX23 is trading down approximately 11¢ , WZ23 is roughly 2¢ weaker, and CZ23 is trading down around 2¢. Nearby WTI crude is weaker this morning, trading down 40¢/barrel. The equity markets are lower and the dollar index is softer.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Inspections and Crop Progress

 

  • The trade remains focused on geopolitical tensions along with world weather conditions.

 

  • Wars continue in the Black Sea and Middle East and the potential for trade disruptions lingers in the background.

 

  • General elections were held Sunday in Argentina to elect the president, vice president, members of the national congress and governors of most provinces. A run off vote for President is expected to be held next month between left wing candidate Sergio Massa and far right libertarian Javier Milei. After polls closed, Massa received the highest number of votes accounting for 36.6% of the total while Milei received roughly 30% of the votes. Agricultural producers have favored Milei’s candidacy.

 

  • Showers fell on Saturday from WI to OH, slowing harvest progress while conditions were more favorable for activity in the west. The trade will be looking for U.S. soybean harvest to come in around 74% complete this afternoon and for corn harvest to come in near 57% done.

 

  • In the S. Hemisphere, Argentina received some rain over the weekend. Weather continues to be less than ideal for planting in parts of Brazil as northern Brazil is experiencing an extended drought while too much rain plagues producers in southern Brazil.

 

  • Brazilian farmers are reported to have planted approximately 30% of the total expected area of the 23/24 soybean harvest. This is below the roughly 38% planted this time last year and lags the average of the last five years.

 

  • Reports indicate some Argentina farmers are changing plans for an early-corn crop to plant soybeans instead on 200,000 hectares (494,000 acres) due to dry weather conditions. As most of their soy is planted in Nov/Dec, this would allow time to wait for rains to aid soil moisture.

 

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