Good morning.
Rinse and repeat this morning for the most part to start Tuesday trade at the CBOT, as markets are largely seeing a continuation of yesterday’s price action so far to start the day, with the soy complex mostly higher and the grains again near unchanged. As has been the case the last several sessions, we would anticipate another day of headline trading on Tuesday amid the ongoing shuttering of the federal government and seemingly endless supply of trade fodder coming out of the White House. The markets need something solid to trade and grab ahold of and with weather in South America offering little of note to this point from the supply side and the demand side being almost entirely dependent on what happens with China, we don’t see anything popping up that satisfies this need in the next several days. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mostly lower; soybean meal is nearly unchanged, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly higher, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points and the US$ index is up 25-30 points; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged. Gold futures are lower after making new contract highs again during the day yesterday.
Like we’ve said before, we find it increasingly meaningless to continue stacking crop progress estimates for weeks on end and assuming the final number is accurate, but nonetheless, traders estimate corn harvest in the US as of Sunday, October 19th at 59% complete (with a range from 51%-66%) and estimate soybean harvest as of the same day at 73% complete (range of 61%-82%). If accurate, both figures would be slightly ahead of their respective five-year averages.
Brazil’s CONAB, late in the day on Monday, said in a weekly update that soybean planting across the country had reached 21.7% complete as of October 18th, which compares to 17.6% as of roughly the same day last year and the five-year average of 27.7% complete. The group saw summer corn planting at 33.2% complete vs 32.3% last year and 34.4% average, while wheat harvest was seen at 37.8% complete vs 47.7% last year and 42.7% average.
At an industry event in Sao Paulo this week, an official from Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy continued to express concern that the country would be unable to meet a March deadline to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend rate from the current 15% level to 16%, which echoes previous comments from other officials in recent weeks.
Ukraine’s economy ministry said on Tuesday that its country’s farmers had planted around 4.8 million hectares of winter crops as of October 21st, which would equate to around 74% of the intended area, which the ministry has forecast at 5.43 mil ha’s compared to 5.24 mil last year.
The European Commission announced on Tuesday that it would propose granting companies six weeks of leeway to comply with its deforestation law that has been on the receiving end of plenty of criticism over the last two years and has also already seen several delays; the announcement seems to be a rollback of comments last month that the January 1 deadline for implementation may again have to be delayed due to ongoing technical issues.
Danish shipping conglomerate Maersk said on Monday that it was testing a blend of Brazilian ethanol with methanol and marine diesel, a product known as “bunker”, in its fleet engines as part of ongoing efforts to further reduce the company’s carbon footprint. Sources say if the whole industry were to adopt a similar 10% ethanol blend, it could amount to as much as 50 billion liters in new demand annually; Brazil currently is expected to produce just 35 billion liters of ethanol in 2026.
Along similar lines, data from China’s government released on Monday showed the country’s pork production in Q3 of this year up 7% from last year at just under 13.5 MMTs, which would coincide with the lower import figures. Cumulative hog slaughter in the first nine months of the year is now seen at 529.9 million, which is up 1.8% from the same period last year.
Sources said on Monday that President Trump had reached an agreement with Australia on rare earth elements and essential minerals trade, further signaling efforts to reduce reliance China. The deal commits both sides to invest upwards of $3 billion USD in the next six months to advance joint projects in mining, processing and refining of key minerals.
President Trump on Monday reiterated his hardline stance towards China, warning that 155% tariffs (up from 100% last week) would be going into effect on November 1 if the two sides were unable to come to agreement on a trade deal. Trump further commented that following the meeting in South Korea later this month, he could also visit China sometime in early 2026 to finalize any such agreement.
Not a lot new weather-wise this morning for the Midwest the next few days, with models continuing to be in good agreement on low pressure providing precipitation to the northern part of the Midwest and the Great Lakes through the day today and today tomorrow, with another system then seen in the mid-south the back half of this week and into the weekend. This system could provide flood risks in parts of OK and TX as totals are expected to reach upwards of 5-6″ in some areas.
Temperatures will be cooler for the most part this week, with highs across the central part of the country hanging in the 50’s/60’s for the most part, before slightly warmer air is then seen moving back in again over the weekend and into next week, with highs returning to the 70’s through a lot of the region. Extended temperature outlooks are again cooler this morning for the eastern 2/3’s of the US, while the west sees a slight warm up into the end of the month.
Models are wetter in Argentina the back half of the week this week and into the weekend but see similar outlooks to yesterday for Brazil; northern regions will pick up additional moisture early this week, with rains then seen filling back in in the south early next week. Central regions will see some areas that get short-changed over the next 10 days, but these areas will be mostly local. Temperatures are still seen cooling off sharply in Argentina over the next few days, while Brazil stays warm in the north and cool in the south.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-21-2025
Good morning.
Rinse and repeat this morning for the most part to start Tuesday trade at the CBOT, as markets are largely seeing a continuation of yesterday’s price action so far to start the day, with the soy complex mostly higher and the grains again near unchanged. As has been the case the last several sessions, we would anticipate another day of headline trading on Tuesday amid the ongoing shuttering of the federal government and seemingly endless supply of trade fodder coming out of the White House. The markets need something solid to trade and grab ahold of and with weather in South America offering little of note to this point from the supply side and the demand side being almost entirely dependent on what happens with China, we don’t see anything popping up that satisfies this need in the next several days. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mostly lower; soybean meal is nearly unchanged, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are quietly higher, crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points and the US$ index is up 25-30 points; the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both near unchanged. Gold futures are lower after making new contract highs again during the day yesterday.
Like we’ve said before, we find it increasingly meaningless to continue stacking crop progress estimates for weeks on end and assuming the final number is accurate, but nonetheless, traders estimate corn harvest in the US as of Sunday, October 19th at 59% complete (with a range from 51%-66%) and estimate soybean harvest as of the same day at 73% complete (range of 61%-82%). If accurate, both figures would be slightly ahead of their respective five-year averages.
Brazil’s CONAB, late in the day on Monday, said in a weekly update that soybean planting across the country had reached 21.7% complete as of October 18th, which compares to 17.6% as of roughly the same day last year and the five-year average of 27.7% complete. The group saw summer corn planting at 33.2% complete vs 32.3% last year and 34.4% average, while wheat harvest was seen at 37.8% complete vs 47.7% last year and 42.7% average.
At an industry event in Sao Paulo this week, an official from Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy continued to express concern that the country would be unable to meet a March deadline to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend rate from the current 15% level to 16%, which echoes previous comments from other officials in recent weeks.
Ukraine’s economy ministry said on Tuesday that its country’s farmers had planted around 4.8 million hectares of winter crops as of October 21st, which would equate to around 74% of the intended area, which the ministry has forecast at 5.43 mil ha’s compared to 5.24 mil last year.
The European Commission announced on Tuesday that it would propose granting companies six weeks of leeway to comply with its deforestation law that has been on the receiving end of plenty of criticism over the last two years and has also already seen several delays; the announcement seems to be a rollback of comments last month that the January 1 deadline for implementation may again have to be delayed due to ongoing technical issues.
Danish shipping conglomerate Maersk said on Monday that it was testing a blend of Brazilian ethanol with methanol and marine diesel, a product known as “bunker”, in its fleet engines as part of ongoing efforts to further reduce the company’s carbon footprint. Sources say if the whole industry were to adopt a similar 10% ethanol blend, it could amount to as much as 50 billion liters in new demand annually; Brazil currently is expected to produce just 35 billion liters of ethanol in 2026.
Along similar lines, data from China’s government released on Monday showed the country’s pork production in Q3 of this year up 7% from last year at just under 13.5 MMTs, which would coincide with the lower import figures. Cumulative hog slaughter in the first nine months of the year is now seen at 529.9 million, which is up 1.8% from the same period last year.
Sources said on Monday that President Trump had reached an agreement with Australia on rare earth elements and essential minerals trade, further signaling efforts to reduce reliance China. The deal commits both sides to invest upwards of $3 billion USD in the next six months to advance joint projects in mining, processing and refining of key minerals.
President Trump on Monday reiterated his hardline stance towards China, warning that 155% tariffs (up from 100% last week) would be going into effect on November 1 if the two sides were unable to come to agreement on a trade deal. Trump further commented that following the meeting in South Korea later this month, he could also visit China sometime in early 2026 to finalize any such agreement.
Not a lot new weather-wise this morning for the Midwest the next few days, with models continuing to be in good agreement on low pressure providing precipitation to the northern part of the Midwest and the Great Lakes through the day today and today tomorrow, with another system then seen in the mid-south the back half of this week and into the weekend. This system could provide flood risks in parts of OK and TX as totals are expected to reach upwards of 5-6″ in some areas.
Temperatures will be cooler for the most part this week, with highs across the central part of the country hanging in the 50’s/60’s for the most part, before slightly warmer air is then seen moving back in again over the weekend and into next week, with highs returning to the 70’s through a lot of the region. Extended temperature outlooks are again cooler this morning for the eastern 2/3’s of the US, while the west sees a slight warm up into the end of the month.
Models are wetter in Argentina the back half of the week this week and into the weekend but see similar outlooks to yesterday for Brazil; northern regions will pick up additional moisture early this week, with rains then seen filling back in in the south early next week. Central regions will see some areas that get short-changed over the next 10 days, but these areas will be mostly local. Temperatures are still seen cooling off sharply in Argentina over the next few days, while Brazil stays warm in the north and cool in the south.
Have a great day!
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