Good morning.
It’s been another quiet overnight session of trading this morning to start mid-week, with the grain markets once again hovering near unchanged and the soybeans up a few cents while the products see spread activity to get Wednesday going. We’re not going to just copy and paste yesterday’s comments over to this morning, but one could make the argument you wouldn’t be missing much if we did as there has been little if anything new from a fundamental standpoint in the last 24 hours amid the ongoing lack of progress on reopening the federal government and it still being almost a complete unknown whether the US and China are going to meet in Korea at the end of the month. The China situation has significantly slowed daily trading from the spec community, while the US farmer wants/needs some sort of confirmation as to what final crop sizes are looking like before doing a whole lot more marketing in the short term. Stay patient, as there remains another seven trading sessions before next Friday’s possible big get together. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 75 points. Gold futures are down $60-70/oz.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average US daily production in the week ending October 17th between 1.040-1.093 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.80 mil bbls. The report is expected to be out at its normal 9:30 am central release time.
Weekly customs data from the EU showed soft wheat exports out of the bloc as of October 21st at 5.87 MMTs, which is up 365k MTs on the week prior but down from 7.45 MMTs through the same period a year ago. With technical issues in the reporting system ongoing, lineup data would suggest actual exports in the season are closer to 9 MMTs, reflecting the sizeable rebound in production that happened across many of the EU’s key growing regions this year.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but the president of South American ag consultancy Datagro said on Tuesday that he predicted corn ethanol production would surpass that of sugarcane in Brazil sometime in the next 10 years. He added that there were currently 25 corn ethanol plants running in Brazil, while another 18 were under construction and 19 were still in the preliminary design phase; production capacity is expected to increase by 3-3.5 billion liters by the end of 2026 from a current level of just over 11 billion liters.
In a post to social media platform X on Tuesday, US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said that the Trump administration would resume distributing $3 billion in aid from the FSA that had been halted during the government shutdown. The post read, “Thursday, USDA will resume Farm Service Agency core operations, including critical services for farm loan processing.” Rollins also mentioned that payments from programs like ARC and PLC would resume as well.
Rollins also further addressed the beef situation that has garnered headlines this week, saying in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, “What we are going to do is incentivize to open up new lands, to make it easier to become a rancher, to build more processing plants around the country, so there aren’t just a handful in the middle of the country… We’ll be able to begin to move the onshoring of beef back to America.” The comments come just days after headlines indicated the administration planned to buy beef from Argentina as a way to alleviate domestic supply pressures that have led to rising prices.
Following headlines earlier this week that Chinese buyers had not purchased a single soybean from the US during the month of September, spokespeople from the American Soybean Association and the US Soybean Export Council said don’t expect this to change anytime soon, as there has been zero evidence that buyers are even considering making purchases and there continue to be zero sales on the books.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) said in a letter to Congress on Tuesday that it now opposes legislation that would see E15 be able to be sold year-round in more states across the US, which seems to be a direct reversal of comments made earlier this year indicating the group was in favor of the change. The reversal highlights how oil and farm lobbies are departing from previous ideas on biofuel policy after being forced to become more aligned in recent years.
Sources familiar with the matter say the US and India are closing in on a trade agreement that would see current US tariffs on goods coming from India dropped from 50% to somewhere in the 15-16% ballpark. Sources added that the deal could possibly include a gradual reduction in Indian imports of Russian oil and also could see more genetically modified crops from the US be allowed to enter Indian markets.
Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Japan’s government was finalizing a purchase package that included pickup trucks, soybeans, and gas to present to US President Trump during trade talks next week. The sources said Japan could trim purchases of beans from Brazil to make room for more imports from the US and also added that Japanese officials were likely to present a list of investment projects under the $550 billion deal.
China’s National Climate Center said this week that some of the country’s main growing regions had experienced the longest and heaviest rainy season in the last 60 years, which has disrupted harvest and left crops sitting in fields on roughly 30% of the country’s planted area. Sources say farmers there have rushed to make sales as opposed to putting the crop in storage, where the additional moisture could add to mold and disease pressures; this has lowered prices, causing a two-fold issue for producers who are also losing bushels.
This has been pretty well covered at this point, but President Trump said on Tuesday that he expects to discuss “a lot of things” with Chinese President Xi in two weeks and expressed confidence that the two sides will “do well” in negotiations, but he also added that the meeting “maybe won’t happen.” The comments highlight the ongoing impasse between the two sides and lend further credence to how much unknown remains regarding the situation less than 10 days before the meeting is set to take place.
Following a record rally in recent months, gold futures saw their biggest one-day drop since 2020 on Tuesday, falling more than 5% as traders and investors banked profits and ran for the exits amid a perceived marginal easing of global geopolitical tensions that reduced safe-haven buying demand. Analysts, though, say they see the pull-back as more of a corrective move as opposed to an end of the broader uptrend that has mostly been in place since the start of the year.
Steady as she goes on the weather front this morning, as models continue to be in good agreement on the Midwest US pattern for the rest of the week. A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system will begin providing potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the mid-south and south-central US Thursday night into Friday, with the system then working east along the Gulf Coast through the weekend and into the first part of next week. The EU model this morning sees totals ranging from 1-4″, with locally heavier amounts possible.
Also, not a lot new south of the equator for Wednesday, as models continue to see rains expanding throughout Argentina the rest of the week this week and into the weekend; totals are seen ranging from a half inch to 3+”, with the heavier amounts seen to the north and east generally speaking. This moisture then expands into southern Brazil through the first part of the week next week, though does not appear likely to make it to Brazil’s growing regions in the central and northern parts of the country.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-22-2025
Good morning.
It’s been another quiet overnight session of trading this morning to start mid-week, with the grain markets once again hovering near unchanged and the soybeans up a few cents while the products see spread activity to get Wednesday going. We’re not going to just copy and paste yesterday’s comments over to this morning, but one could make the argument you wouldn’t be missing much if we did as there has been little if anything new from a fundamental standpoint in the last 24 hours amid the ongoing lack of progress on reopening the federal government and it still being almost a complete unknown whether the US and China are going to meet in Korea at the end of the month. The China situation has significantly slowed daily trading from the spec community, while the US farmer wants/needs some sort of confirmation as to what final crop sizes are looking like before doing a whole lot more marketing in the short term. Stay patient, as there remains another seven trading sessions before next Friday’s possible big get together. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 75 points. Gold futures are down $60-70/oz.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average US daily production in the week ending October 17th between 1.040-1.093 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 22.00-22.80 mil bbls. The report is expected to be out at its normal 9:30 am central release time.
Weekly customs data from the EU showed soft wheat exports out of the bloc as of October 21st at 5.87 MMTs, which is up 365k MTs on the week prior but down from 7.45 MMTs through the same period a year ago. With technical issues in the reporting system ongoing, lineup data would suggest actual exports in the season are closer to 9 MMTs, reflecting the sizeable rebound in production that happened across many of the EU’s key growing regions this year.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but the president of South American ag consultancy Datagro said on Tuesday that he predicted corn ethanol production would surpass that of sugarcane in Brazil sometime in the next 10 years. He added that there were currently 25 corn ethanol plants running in Brazil, while another 18 were under construction and 19 were still in the preliminary design phase; production capacity is expected to increase by 3-3.5 billion liters by the end of 2026 from a current level of just over 11 billion liters.
In a post to social media platform X on Tuesday, US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said that the Trump administration would resume distributing $3 billion in aid from the FSA that had been halted during the government shutdown. The post read, “Thursday, USDA will resume Farm Service Agency core operations, including critical services for farm loan processing.” Rollins also mentioned that payments from programs like ARC and PLC would resume as well.
Rollins also further addressed the beef situation that has garnered headlines this week, saying in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, “What we are going to do is incentivize to open up new lands, to make it easier to become a rancher, to build more processing plants around the country, so there aren’t just a handful in the middle of the country… We’ll be able to begin to move the onshoring of beef back to America.” The comments come just days after headlines indicated the administration planned to buy beef from Argentina as a way to alleviate domestic supply pressures that have led to rising prices.
Following headlines earlier this week that Chinese buyers had not purchased a single soybean from the US during the month of September, spokespeople from the American Soybean Association and the US Soybean Export Council said don’t expect this to change anytime soon, as there has been zero evidence that buyers are even considering making purchases and there continue to be zero sales on the books.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) said in a letter to Congress on Tuesday that it now opposes legislation that would see E15 be able to be sold year-round in more states across the US, which seems to be a direct reversal of comments made earlier this year indicating the group was in favor of the change. The reversal highlights how oil and farm lobbies are departing from previous ideas on biofuel policy after being forced to become more aligned in recent years.
Sources familiar with the matter say the US and India are closing in on a trade agreement that would see current US tariffs on goods coming from India dropped from 50% to somewhere in the 15-16% ballpark. Sources added that the deal could possibly include a gradual reduction in Indian imports of Russian oil and also could see more genetically modified crops from the US be allowed to enter Indian markets.
Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Japan’s government was finalizing a purchase package that included pickup trucks, soybeans, and gas to present to US President Trump during trade talks next week. The sources said Japan could trim purchases of beans from Brazil to make room for more imports from the US and also added that Japanese officials were likely to present a list of investment projects under the $550 billion deal.
China’s National Climate Center said this week that some of the country’s main growing regions had experienced the longest and heaviest rainy season in the last 60 years, which has disrupted harvest and left crops sitting in fields on roughly 30% of the country’s planted area. Sources say farmers there have rushed to make sales as opposed to putting the crop in storage, where the additional moisture could add to mold and disease pressures; this has lowered prices, causing a two-fold issue for producers who are also losing bushels.
This has been pretty well covered at this point, but President Trump said on Tuesday that he expects to discuss “a lot of things” with Chinese President Xi in two weeks and expressed confidence that the two sides will “do well” in negotiations, but he also added that the meeting “maybe won’t happen.” The comments highlight the ongoing impasse between the two sides and lend further credence to how much unknown remains regarding the situation less than 10 days before the meeting is set to take place.
Following a record rally in recent months, gold futures saw their biggest one-day drop since 2020 on Tuesday, falling more than 5% as traders and investors banked profits and ran for the exits amid a perceived marginal easing of global geopolitical tensions that reduced safe-haven buying demand. Analysts, though, say they see the pull-back as more of a corrective move as opposed to an end of the broader uptrend that has mostly been in place since the start of the year.
Steady as she goes on the weather front this morning, as models continue to be in good agreement on the Midwest US pattern for the rest of the week. A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system will begin providing potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the mid-south and south-central US Thursday night into Friday, with the system then working east along the Gulf Coast through the weekend and into the first part of next week. The EU model this morning sees totals ranging from 1-4″, with locally heavier amounts possible.
Also, not a lot new south of the equator for Wednesday, as models continue to see rains expanding throughout Argentina the rest of the week this week and into the weekend; totals are seen ranging from a half inch to 3+”, with the heavier amounts seen to the north and east generally speaking. This moisture then expands into southern Brazil through the first part of the week next week, though does not appear likely to make it to Brazil’s growing regions in the central and northern parts of the country.
Have a great day.
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