Good morning.
Outside market action is the biggest story in the commodity space this morning to start Thursday trade, as crude oil futures are up more than 5% at this writing on news of fresh sanctions from President Trump on two of Russia’s biggest oil companies over continued failure to take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine. The buying has also spilled over into the bean oil market, which has in turn lifted soybean values again to start the day as well. Grain markets, meanwhile, have continued to trade quietly and once again haven’t managed to master even a 3-cent trading range in either the corn or the wheat since the 7pm central re-open last night, as there continues to be little new news specific to either of these markets. Like we’ve said all week, we continue to urge caution on getting too bullish based on media rumors that mean little to the markets; should next week’s meeting disappoint in terms of context or not happen at all, it is our opinion that a fairly sizeable amount of ‘hope’ premium still remains in the soy complex that will quickly be zapped should the meeting go south. Corn futures in Chicago to start Thursday trade are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents higher also. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up around $3/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 110 points, and the US$ index is up around 20 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 80 points. Gold futures are higher, but well off the highs made earlier in the week.
Though there will be no actual weekly report due to the ongoing government shutdown, trade estimates from Reuters show corn export sales in the week ending October 16th between 800k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 600k-2.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-650k MTs.
Following news that Japan would be offering to buy more US soybeans as part of a purchase package they planned to unveil during talks with the US later next week, data shows Japanese soybean imports total just over 3 MMTs annually, with some 70% of this already coming from the US. Were Japan to bump that to 100%, it would only add around 1 MMT to total US export demand, which compares to the more than 22 MMTs the US shipped to China last year.
It is unclear this morning whether the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released as scheduled tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown. Should it be released though, traders, according to a Bloomberg survey, see the US feedlot herd on October 1 at 11.373 mil head, which would be down 2% from last year; placements in the month of September are seen at 1.972 mil head, down 8.6%, while marketings in the month are seen at 1.627 mil head, down 4.2%. The report was previously scheduled for release at 2pm central time on Friday.
Not necessarily new news, but Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he expected to reach an agreement with Chinese President Xi when they meet in South Korea next week, adding that he planned to discuss both rare earth mineral exports and the soybean situation, as well as the war in Ukraine. USTR Jameson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent departed Washington on Wednesday for meetings in Malaysia at the end of this week aimed at keeping next week’s meeting on track.
Following comments from US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins earlier this week regarding a possible aid package for cattle farmers, the USDA on Wednesday published to their website details of that plan that included measures to make it easier to graze cattle on federally owned land, increased insurance subsidies, and cut costs for small processors. The package also included a nearly four-fold increase in the tariff rate quota for beef imports from Argentina to 80,000 MTs a year.
US stock index futures took it on the chin on Wednesday following headlines that the Trump administration was considering an expansive export control measure that would bar the sale of foreign-made goods to China if they contained or were made using US technology or software. Officials familiar with the situation said they move as more of a leverage play in response to Chinese restrictions on rare earths than a final policy, but the headline nonetheless riled markets and further illustrated the ongoing hostilities between the two sides.
Touched on it briefly at the top, crude oil futures have extended gains from earlier in the week this morning and are now back to the lower end of the trading range that was seen for the bulk of summer. President Trump hit Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, with fresh sanctions on Wednesday, following similar moves by the EU last week over the country’s ongoing failure to take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine. The announcement comes just days after a planned meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin in Budapest seemingly fell apart earlier this week.
The all-hazards map from the National Weather Service this morning shows a large portion of the Midwest with frost advisories or freeze warnings, as nighttime lows dipped into the upper 20’s/lower 30’s as far south as the IA/MO border and then east over into IL and IN. Similar lows are expected Thursday night into Friday, but then models show frost potential limited to just the far northeast through the weekend and into next week as lows return to the upper 30’s/lower 40’s across most of the Midwest.
Precipitation-wise, models have continued to trend wetter in the southeastern US the last several days, with the EU model’s output this morning now seeing the heavier 2-4+” precipitation p0otential across a wider area of OK/E TX and then over into LA and MS. The rains still look to stay south of most of the main ag areas in the Midwest though, with model output showing precipitation stopping in central KS/MO in the west and then staying generally south of the Ohio River in the east. Most of IN/IL/IA and then areas further north see just limited precipitation potential into the first part of the week next week.
Forecasts for South America continue to show good rain potential through Argentina the rest of this week and into the weekend, with totals ranging anywhere from a half to an inch further to the south, while pockets in the north could see upwards of 4+” in some local areas. This moisture then keeps expanding north into southern and southwestern Brazil the first part of the week next week, while lighter moisture totals make it to the central and northern regions by the end of the week next week. Coming cool weather in Argentina continues to be a minor concern, more so for wheat, but there currently exists little risk for either country from a precipitation standpoint.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-23-2025
Good morning.
Outside market action is the biggest story in the commodity space this morning to start Thursday trade, as crude oil futures are up more than 5% at this writing on news of fresh sanctions from President Trump on two of Russia’s biggest oil companies over continued failure to take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine. The buying has also spilled over into the bean oil market, which has in turn lifted soybean values again to start the day as well. Grain markets, meanwhile, have continued to trade quietly and once again haven’t managed to master even a 3-cent trading range in either the corn or the wheat since the 7pm central re-open last night, as there continues to be little new news specific to either of these markets. Like we’ve said all week, we continue to urge caution on getting too bullish based on media rumors that mean little to the markets; should next week’s meeting disappoint in terms of context or not happen at all, it is our opinion that a fairly sizeable amount of ‘hope’ premium still remains in the soy complex that will quickly be zapped should the meeting go south. Corn futures in Chicago to start Thursday trade are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents higher also. Products are again mixed; soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up around $3/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 110 points, and the US$ index is up around 20 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 80 points. Gold futures are higher, but well off the highs made earlier in the week.
Though there will be no actual weekly report due to the ongoing government shutdown, trade estimates from Reuters show corn export sales in the week ending October 16th between 800k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 600k-2.0 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-650k MTs.
Following news that Japan would be offering to buy more US soybeans as part of a purchase package they planned to unveil during talks with the US later next week, data shows Japanese soybean imports total just over 3 MMTs annually, with some 70% of this already coming from the US. Were Japan to bump that to 100%, it would only add around 1 MMT to total US export demand, which compares to the more than 22 MMTs the US shipped to China last year.
It is unclear this morning whether the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released as scheduled tomorrow due to the ongoing government shutdown. Should it be released though, traders, according to a Bloomberg survey, see the US feedlot herd on October 1 at 11.373 mil head, which would be down 2% from last year; placements in the month of September are seen at 1.972 mil head, down 8.6%, while marketings in the month are seen at 1.627 mil head, down 4.2%. The report was previously scheduled for release at 2pm central time on Friday.
Not necessarily new news, but Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he expected to reach an agreement with Chinese President Xi when they meet in South Korea next week, adding that he planned to discuss both rare earth mineral exports and the soybean situation, as well as the war in Ukraine. USTR Jameson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent departed Washington on Wednesday for meetings in Malaysia at the end of this week aimed at keeping next week’s meeting on track.
Following comments from US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins earlier this week regarding a possible aid package for cattle farmers, the USDA on Wednesday published to their website details of that plan that included measures to make it easier to graze cattle on federally owned land, increased insurance subsidies, and cut costs for small processors. The package also included a nearly four-fold increase in the tariff rate quota for beef imports from Argentina to 80,000 MTs a year.
US stock index futures took it on the chin on Wednesday following headlines that the Trump administration was considering an expansive export control measure that would bar the sale of foreign-made goods to China if they contained or were made using US technology or software. Officials familiar with the situation said they move as more of a leverage play in response to Chinese restrictions on rare earths than a final policy, but the headline nonetheless riled markets and further illustrated the ongoing hostilities between the two sides.
Touched on it briefly at the top, crude oil futures have extended gains from earlier in the week this morning and are now back to the lower end of the trading range that was seen for the bulk of summer. President Trump hit Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, with fresh sanctions on Wednesday, following similar moves by the EU last week over the country’s ongoing failure to take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine. The announcement comes just days after a planned meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin in Budapest seemingly fell apart earlier this week.
The all-hazards map from the National Weather Service this morning shows a large portion of the Midwest with frost advisories or freeze warnings, as nighttime lows dipped into the upper 20’s/lower 30’s as far south as the IA/MO border and then east over into IL and IN. Similar lows are expected Thursday night into Friday, but then models show frost potential limited to just the far northeast through the weekend and into next week as lows return to the upper 30’s/lower 40’s across most of the Midwest.
Precipitation-wise, models have continued to trend wetter in the southeastern US the last several days, with the EU model’s output this morning now seeing the heavier 2-4+” precipitation p0otential across a wider area of OK/E TX and then over into LA and MS. The rains still look to stay south of most of the main ag areas in the Midwest though, with model output showing precipitation stopping in central KS/MO in the west and then staying generally south of the Ohio River in the east. Most of IN/IL/IA and then areas further north see just limited precipitation potential into the first part of the week next week.
Forecasts for South America continue to show good rain potential through Argentina the rest of this week and into the weekend, with totals ranging anywhere from a half to an inch further to the south, while pockets in the north could see upwards of 4+” in some local areas. This moisture then keeps expanding north into southern and southwestern Brazil the first part of the week next week, while lighter moisture totals make it to the central and northern regions by the end of the week next week. Coming cool weather in Argentina continues to be a minor concern, more so for wheat, but there currently exists little risk for either country from a precipitation standpoint.
Have a great day.
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