Good morning.
Quietly lower is the ag space this morning to start Friday trade in Chicago, with all three of the corn, soybeans and wheat trading slightly in the red and not having much for trading ranges the last several hours on limited headlines so far out of Malaysia and an ongoing lack of new news otherwise. This week’s rally has no doubt been a good selling opportunity for the US farmer, but we continue to caution that developments from next week’s Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea will be the overall determining factor as to whether the rally holds or was just a short term pop amid an otherwise ongoing sideways/lower trending market. Aside from this, a 180+ MMT soybean crop out of Brazil will also limit rally potential from a big picture standpoint; the world’s top two producers of soybeans can’t produce back-to-back-to-back record crops and not expect to see some sort of pressure from a price standpoint. Supply and demand fundamentals, at their core, have not changed, and this will be the bigger issue going forward beyond China. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are quietly mixed; soybean meal is up 40-50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are also quiet, crude oil futures are up 50-70 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 120 points. Gold futures are down around $70/oz.
The weekly update from the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress in the country at 33.8% complete, which was up 4% on the week prior and continues to be near the upper end of the range seen for this date in the last 10 years. The group also said wheat harvest had started over the past week, with progress reaching 5.3% complete and early yields reportedly being very good.
It is unclear this morning whether the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released as scheduled this afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown. Should it be released though, traders, according to a Bloomberg survey, see the US feedlot herd on October 1 at 11.373 mil head, which would be down 2% from last year; placements in the month of September are seen at 1.972 mil head, down 8.6%, while marketings in the month are seen at 1.627 mil head, down 4.2%. The report was previously scheduled for release at 2pm central time.
The IGC (International Grains Council) said on Thursday that they now see global stocks of all grains in 2025/26 reaching 618 MMTs, which would be up from their September estimate of 606 MMTs and would also be the highest level in the last three years. Wheat stocks were raised from 270 MMTs to 275 MMTs, while corn stocks were raised from 294 MMTs to 299 MMTs; soybean stocks, inversely, were trimmed from 83 MMTs to 79 MMTs.
Russia’s stat-run news agency TASS said on Thursday that grain harvest in the country had already exceeded the forecast 135 MMTs, though they added that the Ag Ministry did not adjust the forecast higher despite harvest being ongoing. The ministry added that harvest had also brought in nearly 9 MMTs more grain than last year during the same period.
Along with rumored Chinese business for US soybeans on Thursday, traders this morning are also noting the relative strength seen in the Kansas City wheat market on Thursday as possibly signaling some sort signs of interest. In the past, a strengthening of the KC/Chicago spread would indicate interest in US wheat, but like yesterday’s rumored bean business, this will be difficult if not impossible to confirm amid the ongoing government shutdown and lack of sales data.
A weekly update from French crop body FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn harvest at 75% complete as of this past Monday, which is up from 56% the week prior and is also ahead of the five-year average for the week seen at 63%. Meanwhile, the group also showed soft wheat planting at 57% complete, which compares to 20% last year and is also ahead of the five-year average seen at 43%.
Big trade-related headline from overnight was not China related, but instead involved Canada, as President Trump announced he was terminating all trade negotiations with our northern neighbor due to their government funding a $75 million ad campaign that used fake audio of former US President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The announcement comes a day after newswires reported that Canadian PM Mark Carney was also seeking a sideline meeting with China’s President Xi at next week’s APEC summit in Korea, similar to that planned between Xi and Trump.
Speaking of that meeting, the White House also confirmed on Thursday that Trump’s Asia visit next week would also include a meeting with Japan on Tuesday and a meeting with South Korea on Wednesday, ahead of the all-important China meeting then on Thursday. Otherwise, we have little news to report from any of the ongoing discussions between the two sides this morning.
Will keep weather comments short this morning as there continues to be not a lot new through the weekend and into the week next week; the EU model forecast through Sunday night has 1-3″ of precipitation generally speaking for the south-central US and into the southeast, with the moisture expected to stretch from central TX to the AL/GA border. On the temperature side, daytime highs will be similar to the last several days this week, while nighttime lows will gradually warm back up through the weekend and into next week. After this morning, there is little frost risk for the next several days.
Also, not a lot new south of the equator through the next few days and into next week, with the models still in good agreement on potentially heavy rains for most of the northern 2/3’s of Argentina beginning today and lasting through the weekend, while these rains then expand north into Brazil through the week next week. There will be pockets in central Brazil that are short-changed in terms of totals, but most all of the growing regions both here and in Argentina expect to see some sort of moisture over the next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-24-2025
Good morning.
Quietly lower is the ag space this morning to start Friday trade in Chicago, with all three of the corn, soybeans and wheat trading slightly in the red and not having much for trading ranges the last several hours on limited headlines so far out of Malaysia and an ongoing lack of new news otherwise. This week’s rally has no doubt been a good selling opportunity for the US farmer, but we continue to caution that developments from next week’s Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea will be the overall determining factor as to whether the rally holds or was just a short term pop amid an otherwise ongoing sideways/lower trending market. Aside from this, a 180+ MMT soybean crop out of Brazil will also limit rally potential from a big picture standpoint; the world’s top two producers of soybeans can’t produce back-to-back-to-back record crops and not expect to see some sort of pressure from a price standpoint. Supply and demand fundamentals, at their core, have not changed, and this will be the bigger issue going forward beyond China. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are quietly mixed; soybean meal is up 40-50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are also quiet, crude oil futures are up 50-70 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 120 points. Gold futures are down around $70/oz.
The weekly update from the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress in the country at 33.8% complete, which was up 4% on the week prior and continues to be near the upper end of the range seen for this date in the last 10 years. The group also said wheat harvest had started over the past week, with progress reaching 5.3% complete and early yields reportedly being very good.
It is unclear this morning whether the USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released as scheduled this afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown. Should it be released though, traders, according to a Bloomberg survey, see the US feedlot herd on October 1 at 11.373 mil head, which would be down 2% from last year; placements in the month of September are seen at 1.972 mil head, down 8.6%, while marketings in the month are seen at 1.627 mil head, down 4.2%. The report was previously scheduled for release at 2pm central time.
The IGC (International Grains Council) said on Thursday that they now see global stocks of all grains in 2025/26 reaching 618 MMTs, which would be up from their September estimate of 606 MMTs and would also be the highest level in the last three years. Wheat stocks were raised from 270 MMTs to 275 MMTs, while corn stocks were raised from 294 MMTs to 299 MMTs; soybean stocks, inversely, were trimmed from 83 MMTs to 79 MMTs.
Russia’s stat-run news agency TASS said on Thursday that grain harvest in the country had already exceeded the forecast 135 MMTs, though they added that the Ag Ministry did not adjust the forecast higher despite harvest being ongoing. The ministry added that harvest had also brought in nearly 9 MMTs more grain than last year during the same period.
Along with rumored Chinese business for US soybeans on Thursday, traders this morning are also noting the relative strength seen in the Kansas City wheat market on Thursday as possibly signaling some sort signs of interest. In the past, a strengthening of the KC/Chicago spread would indicate interest in US wheat, but like yesterday’s rumored bean business, this will be difficult if not impossible to confirm amid the ongoing government shutdown and lack of sales data.
A weekly update from French crop body FranceAgriMer showed the country’s corn harvest at 75% complete as of this past Monday, which is up from 56% the week prior and is also ahead of the five-year average for the week seen at 63%. Meanwhile, the group also showed soft wheat planting at 57% complete, which compares to 20% last year and is also ahead of the five-year average seen at 43%.
Big trade-related headline from overnight was not China related, but instead involved Canada, as President Trump announced he was terminating all trade negotiations with our northern neighbor due to their government funding a $75 million ad campaign that used fake audio of former US President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. The announcement comes a day after newswires reported that Canadian PM Mark Carney was also seeking a sideline meeting with China’s President Xi at next week’s APEC summit in Korea, similar to that planned between Xi and Trump.
Speaking of that meeting, the White House also confirmed on Thursday that Trump’s Asia visit next week would also include a meeting with Japan on Tuesday and a meeting with South Korea on Wednesday, ahead of the all-important China meeting then on Thursday. Otherwise, we have little news to report from any of the ongoing discussions between the two sides this morning.
Will keep weather comments short this morning as there continues to be not a lot new through the weekend and into the week next week; the EU model forecast through Sunday night has 1-3″ of precipitation generally speaking for the south-central US and into the southeast, with the moisture expected to stretch from central TX to the AL/GA border. On the temperature side, daytime highs will be similar to the last several days this week, while nighttime lows will gradually warm back up through the weekend and into next week. After this morning, there is little frost risk for the next several days.
Also, not a lot new south of the equator through the next few days and into next week, with the models still in good agreement on potentially heavy rains for most of the northern 2/3’s of Argentina beginning today and lasting through the weekend, while these rains then expand north into Brazil through the week next week. There will be pockets in central Brazil that are short-changed in terms of totals, but most all of the growing regions both here and in Argentina expect to see some sort of moisture over the next week.
Have a great day.
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