Good morning.
Quiet and in light volume has been the theme of the overnight trade to start Tuesday as corn and soybean futures are both trading marginally lower. We expect choppy/lower price action to emerge throughout the day today, with Dec corn running into chart-based resistance at last week’s high of 4.15 1/4. Otherwise, South American weather forecasts and the looming Presidential election that is just two weeks from today look to continue to dominate most of the market chatter in the short term. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 130 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 80 points. Metals are again higher, but Dec gold has not made new contract highs as of this writing.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed as of Sunday, October 20th, 65% of the corn crop was harvested, up from 47% last week, and 81% of the soybean crop was harvested, up from 67% last week. Condition ratings have ended for both corn and soybeans.
At the state level, furthest states behind on a percentage basis are Pennsylvania (41%), Wisconsin (44%), and Michigan (45%); and though behind relative the rest of the states, these states are all still well ahead of their respective five-year averages.
On the soybean side, furthest states behind from a percentage standpoint are North Carolina (31%), Kentucky (54%), and Missouri (61%); like corn, all three of these states are still ahead of their respective five-year averages.
Winter wheat planting has advanced to 73% complete, up from 64% last week but till behind the five-year average of 76%. Emergence has reached 46%, compared to the five-year average of 50%.
Furthering the discussion on Brazil’s planting progress, consultancy Safras & Mercado sees first corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul at 90.1% complete, 80.2% complete in Santa Catarina, 82.3% compete in Parana, and 19% complete in Sao Paulo.
The USDA’s chicken and eggs report for October showed the US produced 8.92 bil eggs in the month of September, compared to 9.08 bil in August, and compared to 9.12 bil in September of 2023.
USDA also released its monthly milk production report on Monday, which showed US milk production in the month of September at 17.48 bil lbs., which is down nearly 4% from August but up 0.4% from September of last year.
Overnight updates in the Middle East were again mostly minimal – reports overnight say Israel damaged a Beirut hospital and killed at least 13 people in a missile strike; and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Monday to head to the region for now the 11th time since the conflict began, in what appears to be a last ditch effort at brokering a cease-fire.
Satellite data shows light rains fell Monday across the Pacific northwest, and also in the mid-section of the country through parts of NE and KS. Totals were generally less than 1″ and closer to just a tenth or two across most areas that received rains.
The EU model is wetter for the rest of the week than the GFS, and shows rains of trace amounts to up to an inch through parts of MO/IA/IL/IN. The GFS sees light rains in these areas also, but sees totals limited generally to a tenth or two.
Week-two forecasts continue to come into better agreement with every passing run and show an increasingly wetter bias through the mid-section of the US into the first week of November.
Not a lot of overnight change to the temp outlook; Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week for most of the Midwest, though temps will continue to run above average for the most part into next week. 10–15-day maps continue to show above average temps in the east and below average temps in the west.
Rinse and repeat for South American rainfall on Tuesday; central/northern areas of Brazil saw good rains with totals ranging from 0.01″ to 3″, while Argentina saw another day of mostly dry conditions.
And forecast updates here were also minimal overnight, as both the GFS and the EU models continue to advertise near normal rains for both Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks. There does not appear to currently be any hint of a pattern shift on the horizon into November.\
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-22-2024
Good morning.
Quiet and in light volume has been the theme of the overnight trade to start Tuesday as corn and soybean futures are both trading marginally lower. We expect choppy/lower price action to emerge throughout the day today, with Dec corn running into chart-based resistance at last week’s high of 4.15 1/4. Otherwise, South American weather forecasts and the looming Presidential election that is just two weeks from today look to continue to dominate most of the market chatter in the short term. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed also, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 130 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 80 points. Metals are again higher, but Dec gold has not made new contract highs as of this writing.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed as of Sunday, October 20th, 65% of the corn crop was harvested, up from 47% last week, and 81% of the soybean crop was harvested, up from 67% last week. Condition ratings have ended for both corn and soybeans.
At the state level, furthest states behind on a percentage basis are Pennsylvania (41%), Wisconsin (44%), and Michigan (45%); and though behind relative the rest of the states, these states are all still well ahead of their respective five-year averages.
On the soybean side, furthest states behind from a percentage standpoint are North Carolina (31%), Kentucky (54%), and Missouri (61%); like corn, all three of these states are still ahead of their respective five-year averages.
Winter wheat planting has advanced to 73% complete, up from 64% last week but till behind the five-year average of 76%. Emergence has reached 46%, compared to the five-year average of 50%.
Furthering the discussion on Brazil’s planting progress, consultancy Safras & Mercado sees first corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul at 90.1% complete, 80.2% complete in Santa Catarina, 82.3% compete in Parana, and 19% complete in Sao Paulo.
The USDA’s chicken and eggs report for October showed the US produced 8.92 bil eggs in the month of September, compared to 9.08 bil in August, and compared to 9.12 bil in September of 2023.
USDA also released its monthly milk production report on Monday, which showed US milk production in the month of September at 17.48 bil lbs., which is down nearly 4% from August but up 0.4% from September of last year.
Overnight updates in the Middle East were again mostly minimal – reports overnight say Israel damaged a Beirut hospital and killed at least 13 people in a missile strike; and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken left Monday to head to the region for now the 11th time since the conflict began, in what appears to be a last ditch effort at brokering a cease-fire.
Satellite data shows light rains fell Monday across the Pacific northwest, and also in the mid-section of the country through parts of NE and KS. Totals were generally less than 1″ and closer to just a tenth or two across most areas that received rains.
The EU model is wetter for the rest of the week than the GFS, and shows rains of trace amounts to up to an inch through parts of MO/IA/IL/IN. The GFS sees light rains in these areas also, but sees totals limited generally to a tenth or two.
Week-two forecasts continue to come into better agreement with every passing run and show an increasingly wetter bias through the mid-section of the US into the first week of November.
Not a lot of overnight change to the temp outlook; Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week for most of the Midwest, though temps will continue to run above average for the most part into next week. 10–15-day maps continue to show above average temps in the east and below average temps in the west.
Rinse and repeat for South American rainfall on Tuesday; central/northern areas of Brazil saw good rains with totals ranging from 0.01″ to 3″, while Argentina saw another day of mostly dry conditions.
And forecast updates here were also minimal overnight, as both the GFS and the EU models continue to advertise near normal rains for both Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks. There does not appear to currently be any hint of a pattern shift on the horizon into November.\
Have a great day.
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