Good morning.
Markets are lower at the CBOT to start mid-week in what has been another fairly quiet overnight trading session. New fundamental news specific to corn or soybeans is lacking this morning as the farmer side of the trade focuses on getting the 2025 harvest wrapped up this week, and the financial side of the trade is seen waiting until after the November 5th election to place large new commodity bets in either direction. We continue to see both rallies and sell-offs as likely to fail for another couple weeks as the markets trend sideways. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 7-8 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 220 points, and the US$ index is up 35 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points, and the NASDAQ is down 70 points. Gold is again higher, though to a lesser degree than the past couple days and has made another new contract high at $2,772.60/oz as of this writing.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 18th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.042-1.053 mil bbls and is expected to show stocks in a range of 22.00-22.40 mil bbls.
Brazilian export lobby Anec, in a weekly report, say they see Brazil soybean exports in October reaching 4.63 mmt’s, up from their previous estimate of 4.34 mmt’s last week. Same group sees meal exports at 2.57 mmt’s and sees corn exports at 6.24 mmt’s.
According to data from the European Commission, soft wheat exports from the EU reached 7.02 mil tons as of October 20th, down from 10.2 mil tons as of the same date last year. The commission continues to note that data for Italy, Bulgaria, and Ireland is not complete.
According to the Australia Workers’ Union, more than 200 grain handlers at sites owned by GrainCorp Ltd across New South Wales are planning to implement random one-hour work stoppages to protest low pay beginning on October 29th and lasting for a month unless a deal is made.
Sources in Brazil say the number of Brazilian farmers filing for bankruptcy protection in Q2 of this year more than tripled from the same period last year, jumping from 34 filings to 121 filings. Soybean farmers accounted for 53 of the 121. Total filings in the first half of 2024 reached 207, which is more than 3 times the amount seen in the first half of 2023.
Equity markets look to again be mostly quite data-wise on Wednesday, as the slate remains rather quiet. The IMF yesterday revised GDP growth forecasts by 0.2% to 2.8% in 2024, and by 0.3% to 2.2% for 2025. Otherwise, an expected rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this afternoon will likely take most of the headlines later in the day.
Light rains of a tenth or two were seen across parts of IA and IL on Tuesday according to satellite data, and also further north across ND/MN/WI and up into Canada; the rest of the country was mostly dry.
The EU model continues to be the wetter of the two for the rest of this week and through the weekend, with up to an additional inch of rainfall seen for IA/IL/MO, and also 1-2″ of rainfall possible in the Pacific Northwest. The GFS sees rainfall in similar locations, but totals are less and more isolated.
Week-two models continue to trend wetter, as now both the ensembles and the EU AI model are in fair agreement on a broad area with above average precipitation chances through the mid-section of the country into the first week of November. Confidence in a coming pattern shift is growing.
No updates overnight to the temperature forecast for the Midwest; temps look to stay average to above average in the east into next week, while the western third of the country maintains a cooler bias. 10–15-day guidance shows this pattern staying in place at least into the first week of November.
Brazil saw a bit of a drier day on Tuesday according to satellite data, with just a small pocket in the state of Goias receiving more than trace amounts of rainfall. South/central Argentina saw rains of 0.5-2″ south of Cordoba, while northern areas were mostly dry.
Five-day precipitation maps continue to show up to an additional 4″ of rainfall for most of Brazil’s southern and central growing regions, while Argentina looks to see similar totals in the south/central and southeastern parts of the country.
Following this next round of rains in Argentina, week-two maps are showing a period of dryness returning for Argentina, which will need monitoring. Brazil currently sees no signs of returning to a drier pattern.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-23-2024
Good morning.
Markets are lower at the CBOT to start mid-week in what has been another fairly quiet overnight trading session. New fundamental news specific to corn or soybeans is lacking this morning as the farmer side of the trade focuses on getting the 2025 harvest wrapped up this week, and the financial side of the trade is seen waiting until after the November 5th election to place large new commodity bets in either direction. We continue to see both rallies and sell-offs as likely to fail for another couple weeks as the markets trend sideways. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 7-8 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-20 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 220 points, and the US$ index is up 35 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points, and the NASDAQ is down 70 points. Gold is again higher, though to a lesser degree than the past couple days and has made another new contract high at $2,772.60/oz as of this writing.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 18th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.042-1.053 mil bbls and is expected to show stocks in a range of 22.00-22.40 mil bbls.
Brazilian export lobby Anec, in a weekly report, say they see Brazil soybean exports in October reaching 4.63 mmt’s, up from their previous estimate of 4.34 mmt’s last week. Same group sees meal exports at 2.57 mmt’s and sees corn exports at 6.24 mmt’s.
According to data from the European Commission, soft wheat exports from the EU reached 7.02 mil tons as of October 20th, down from 10.2 mil tons as of the same date last year. The commission continues to note that data for Italy, Bulgaria, and Ireland is not complete.
According to the Australia Workers’ Union, more than 200 grain handlers at sites owned by GrainCorp Ltd across New South Wales are planning to implement random one-hour work stoppages to protest low pay beginning on October 29th and lasting for a month unless a deal is made.
Sources in Brazil say the number of Brazilian farmers filing for bankruptcy protection in Q2 of this year more than tripled from the same period last year, jumping from 34 filings to 121 filings. Soybean farmers accounted for 53 of the 121. Total filings in the first half of 2024 reached 207, which is more than 3 times the amount seen in the first half of 2023.
Equity markets look to again be mostly quite data-wise on Wednesday, as the slate remains rather quiet. The IMF yesterday revised GDP growth forecasts by 0.2% to 2.8% in 2024, and by 0.3% to 2.2% for 2025. Otherwise, an expected rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this afternoon will likely take most of the headlines later in the day.
Light rains of a tenth or two were seen across parts of IA and IL on Tuesday according to satellite data, and also further north across ND/MN/WI and up into Canada; the rest of the country was mostly dry.
The EU model continues to be the wetter of the two for the rest of this week and through the weekend, with up to an additional inch of rainfall seen for IA/IL/MO, and also 1-2″ of rainfall possible in the Pacific Northwest. The GFS sees rainfall in similar locations, but totals are less and more isolated.
Week-two models continue to trend wetter, as now both the ensembles and the EU AI model are in fair agreement on a broad area with above average precipitation chances through the mid-section of the country into the first week of November. Confidence in a coming pattern shift is growing.
No updates overnight to the temperature forecast for the Midwest; temps look to stay average to above average in the east into next week, while the western third of the country maintains a cooler bias. 10–15-day guidance shows this pattern staying in place at least into the first week of November.
Brazil saw a bit of a drier day on Tuesday according to satellite data, with just a small pocket in the state of Goias receiving more than trace amounts of rainfall. South/central Argentina saw rains of 0.5-2″ south of Cordoba, while northern areas were mostly dry.
Five-day precipitation maps continue to show up to an additional 4″ of rainfall for most of Brazil’s southern and central growing regions, while Argentina looks to see similar totals in the south/central and southeastern parts of the country.
Following this next round of rains in Argentina, week-two maps are showing a period of dryness returning for Argentina, which will need monitoring. Brazil currently sees no signs of returning to a drier pattern.
Have a great day.
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