Good morning.
Green ink is on the screen at the CBOT to start Thursday, as corn and soybean futures are higher in overnight trade for the first day this week. Markets have started lower and then rallied following the 8:30am central time re-open all week, so we will see if the opposite action unfolds to knock prices back lower through the day today. As we’ve mentioned all week, price determination in the short-term continues to be a product of South American weather and the lack of managed money trading due to the election – the US harvest is down to the last 15 or 20%, which means new hedge selling should be lightening up fairly quickly. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points, and the US$ index is down 25 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 170 points. Also of note, the SX/SF soybean spread has matched its recent high this morning at -6 1/4.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 17th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales in a range of 2.2-3.3 mmt’s, 2024/25 soybean sales in a range of 1.2-2.4 mmt’s, and 2024/25 wheat sales in a range of 350k-650k mt’s.
Of note, 2025/26 corn sales are estimated in a range of 500k-850k mt’s. Combined with the 2024/25 sales, the high end of these estimates would be the fifth largest weekly sales volume in recent history, with the other four highest sales all coming in 2021 and involving China; China is not expected to be a part of the business announced today.
The cattle on feed report for October, due out tomorrow afternoon, is expected to show cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.57 mil head, which would be down 0.3% from last year. September placements are seen 4.1% lower than last year, and September marketings are seen 1.7% higher than last year.
Officials from the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday said recent strong rains had significantly improved drought conditions in the country, describing the situation with a soccer reference; “We were losing 3-0 to the drought. With rains last week, we were down 3-2, and with what is happening now, we would be winning 4-3.”
The USDA’s ag attaché to Australia lowered its estimate of the country’s 2024/25 wheat production by 3.5 mmt’s on Wednesday, now seeing the crop at 28.5 mmt’s. The number compares to 25.96 mmt’s in 2023/24, and the USDA’s current estimate for 2024/25 of 32.0 mmt’s.
The USDA’s ag attaché to Brazil adjusted its estimate of the country’s 2024/25 soybean production to 161 mmt’s, up 1 mmt from its previous estimate. Same group sees exports at a record 102 mmt’s, while crush is estimated 2.5% higher than last year at 55.5 mmt’s.
According to a post on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website, Malaysia has raised the export tax for crude palm oil in November to 9.5%, which would be the first such increase in more than three years; the tax was set at 8% just last week.
Aside from weekly jobs data this morning, equity markets on Thursday will have their attention focused on one of the bigger private earning days in Q3, with a whole slew of companies scheduled to report. Sentiment was positive to start the day, as Tesla’s earnings beat expectations and the company’s stock was up more than 12% in pre-market trading overnight.
We briefly mentioned yesterday Canada was expected to cut its interest rates by as much as 50 basis points on Wednesday; this did in fact happen, but did not receive a lot of market reaction or headlines as the move was widely expected.
Mostly dry conditions were seen through the Corn Belt on Wednesday, though a few showers did pop off across IA and IL with totals that were generally not measurable. Things also look to be mostly dry again today before a system sweeps through the northern tier of the US, providing rainfall of up to a half inch to areas from the Dakota’s/MN down into IL/IN.
Rainfall from this first system will be generally light and spotty, but models continue to be in decent agreement on another system bringing moisture to a much more widespread area by the middle/end of next week; the EU is marginally wetter, but both models see the potential for up to 3″ from TX all the way to MI. The western half of the country also looks to pick up additional moisture next week.
Week-two forecasts remain mostly unchanged, as the EU AI model, as well as the CPC and both ensembles, continue to see wetter than average conditions for most of the central and eastern parts of the country into November 7th.
The EU’s 10–15-day temperature outlook this morning trended slightly cooler in the east than was seen the rest of this week, but the GFS extended outlook continues to show a warmer east/cooler west bias; this will be watched for into the weekend and next week. Otherwise Saturday looks to be generally the coolest day of the next several, with warmth returning by the first part of next week.
Rains came as advertised for Argentina’s southcentral/southeastern growing regions according to satellite data on Wednesday, with totals ranging from 0.1-3″; additional rains are expected still this morning, before things calm down and a drier pattern emerges over the next week. The dryness will be conducive to seeding progress.
Brazil saw light rains across southern and central growing areas also on Wednesday, while areas in the north and east were mostly dry. Totals here were lighter and ranged from just trace amounts to up to an inch. Forecast calls for additional light rains in the south today, before rains move slightly further north over the weekend and into early next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-24-2024
Good morning.
Green ink is on the screen at the CBOT to start Thursday, as corn and soybean futures are higher in overnight trade for the first day this week. Markets have started lower and then rallied following the 8:30am central time re-open all week, so we will see if the opposite action unfolds to knock prices back lower through the day today. As we’ve mentioned all week, price determination in the short-term continues to be a product of South American weather and the lack of managed money trading due to the election – the US harvest is down to the last 15 or 20%, which means new hedge selling should be lightening up fairly quickly. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 60 points, and the US$ index is down 25 points. The S&P500 is up 25 points, and the NASDAQ is up 170 points. Also of note, the SX/SF soybean spread has matched its recent high this morning at -6 1/4.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 17th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales in a range of 2.2-3.3 mmt’s, 2024/25 soybean sales in a range of 1.2-2.4 mmt’s, and 2024/25 wheat sales in a range of 350k-650k mt’s.
Of note, 2025/26 corn sales are estimated in a range of 500k-850k mt’s. Combined with the 2024/25 sales, the high end of these estimates would be the fifth largest weekly sales volume in recent history, with the other four highest sales all coming in 2021 and involving China; China is not expected to be a part of the business announced today.
The cattle on feed report for October, due out tomorrow afternoon, is expected to show cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.57 mil head, which would be down 0.3% from last year. September placements are seen 4.1% lower than last year, and September marketings are seen 1.7% higher than last year.
Officials from the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday said recent strong rains had significantly improved drought conditions in the country, describing the situation with a soccer reference; “We were losing 3-0 to the drought. With rains last week, we were down 3-2, and with what is happening now, we would be winning 4-3.”
The USDA’s ag attaché to Australia lowered its estimate of the country’s 2024/25 wheat production by 3.5 mmt’s on Wednesday, now seeing the crop at 28.5 mmt’s. The number compares to 25.96 mmt’s in 2023/24, and the USDA’s current estimate for 2024/25 of 32.0 mmt’s.
The USDA’s ag attaché to Brazil adjusted its estimate of the country’s 2024/25 soybean production to 161 mmt’s, up 1 mmt from its previous estimate. Same group sees exports at a record 102 mmt’s, while crush is estimated 2.5% higher than last year at 55.5 mmt’s.
According to a post on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website, Malaysia has raised the export tax for crude palm oil in November to 9.5%, which would be the first such increase in more than three years; the tax was set at 8% just last week.
Aside from weekly jobs data this morning, equity markets on Thursday will have their attention focused on one of the bigger private earning days in Q3, with a whole slew of companies scheduled to report. Sentiment was positive to start the day, as Tesla’s earnings beat expectations and the company’s stock was up more than 12% in pre-market trading overnight.
We briefly mentioned yesterday Canada was expected to cut its interest rates by as much as 50 basis points on Wednesday; this did in fact happen, but did not receive a lot of market reaction or headlines as the move was widely expected.
Mostly dry conditions were seen through the Corn Belt on Wednesday, though a few showers did pop off across IA and IL with totals that were generally not measurable. Things also look to be mostly dry again today before a system sweeps through the northern tier of the US, providing rainfall of up to a half inch to areas from the Dakota’s/MN down into IL/IN.
Rainfall from this first system will be generally light and spotty, but models continue to be in decent agreement on another system bringing moisture to a much more widespread area by the middle/end of next week; the EU is marginally wetter, but both models see the potential for up to 3″ from TX all the way to MI. The western half of the country also looks to pick up additional moisture next week.
Week-two forecasts remain mostly unchanged, as the EU AI model, as well as the CPC and both ensembles, continue to see wetter than average conditions for most of the central and eastern parts of the country into November 7th.
The EU’s 10–15-day temperature outlook this morning trended slightly cooler in the east than was seen the rest of this week, but the GFS extended outlook continues to show a warmer east/cooler west bias; this will be watched for into the weekend and next week. Otherwise Saturday looks to be generally the coolest day of the next several, with warmth returning by the first part of next week.
Rains came as advertised for Argentina’s southcentral/southeastern growing regions according to satellite data on Wednesday, with totals ranging from 0.1-3″; additional rains are expected still this morning, before things calm down and a drier pattern emerges over the next week. The dryness will be conducive to seeding progress.
Brazil saw light rains across southern and central growing areas also on Wednesday, while areas in the north and east were mostly dry. Totals here were lighter and ranged from just trace amounts to up to an inch. Forecast calls for additional light rains in the south today, before rains move slightly further north over the weekend and into early next week.
Have a great day.
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