Good morning.
Markets are lower this morning to start what looks to be the last major harvest weekend of the year across the Midwest; soybean harvest is all but wrapped up, while many producers have either finished corn harvest the last few days or look to by this time next week. Once the election passes in another week and a half, ag market attention will almost entirely turn to South American weather and what it means for their crop prospects. In the background will be US export demand, which needs to be good over the next 3-4 months as long as prospects remain good in Brazil and Argentina. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are down 2-4 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 7-8 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed/higher, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points. Metals are weaker this morning, with gold futures down $10-11/oz.
The cattle on feed report for October is expected to show cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.57 mil head, which would be down 0.3% from last year. September placements are seen 4.1% lower than last year at 2.118 mil head, and September marketings are seen 1.7% higher than last year at 1.696 mil head.
China’s ag ministry said they expect total crop output from the country to exceed 700 million tons in the 2024 season for the first time due to higher yields. More than 80% of the crops have already been harvested as of October 24th.
Ukraine’s deputy ag minister on Friday told reporters that the country’s soybean crop will likely exceed 6 mmt’s this season, which would be a new record; soybean production in 2023 totaled just over 4.7 mmt’s. The minister said farmers favored more oilseeds this year due to less input and logistics costs.
According to FranceAgriMer, French corn harvest reached 25% complete as of Monday, October 21st, up from 14% the previous week but still well behind the five-year average for this week of 69%. Soft wheat planting was seen at 21% complete, compared to 47% on average.
The USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report, released yesterday afternoon, showed commercial red meat production in September at 4.45 bil lbs., down just over 3% from August but up more than 2% from September of last year.
Beef production in September was up 2.6% from August but down 3.6% from last year at 2.21 bil lbs., while pork production was down 2.5% from August but up 2.1% from last year at 2.23 bil lbs. September cattle slaughter totaled 2.57 mil head, while hog slaughter totaled 10.521 mil head.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 19th totaled 486k tons, which was down 14.4% from last week. Corn shipments were down 1.8% to 220k tons, and soybean shipments were down nearly 21% at 259k tons. Barge rates at STL were up $2.83 on the week to $30.08/short ton.
Satellite data shows rains were marginally better than expected across parts of the central Corn Belt overnight; 24-hour maps show totals of nearly an inch fell in parts of eastern IA and western IL, mostly along interstate-80. Rains stretched from MO up through WI/MN and into Canada, with more general totals of 0.2-0.3″.
This system looks to make its way through the eastern Corn Belt on Friday, before the weekend and first part of next week again turn mostly drier. A more widespread rain event is still seen for the central part of Midwest the end of next week and into the weekend, with totals seen reaching up to 3″. How this pattern develops next week will be closely watched.
Cool air will work its way east today and tomorrow, with highs through the Midwest on Saturday topping out in the upper 50’s for a lot of areas. Heat returns the first part of next week though, as highs will return to the upper 70’s/lower 80’s Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Things look to then again cool off a bit into next weekend.
Satellite data for South America shows rains favored far southern Brazil on Thursday and reached into more of the east/central growing regions and also down into Uruguay. Parts of far northeast Argentina also saw some of these rains, but the rest of the country was otherwise dry.
The weekend into the first part of next week looks to be mostly dry for Argentina and southern Brazil, while Brazil’s central growing regions are expected to receive anywhere from trace rainfall to up to 3″ between now and Monday.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-25-2024
Good morning.
Markets are lower this morning to start what looks to be the last major harvest weekend of the year across the Midwest; soybean harvest is all but wrapped up, while many producers have either finished corn harvest the last few days or look to by this time next week. Once the election passes in another week and a half, ag market attention will almost entirely turn to South American weather and what it means for their crop prospects. In the background will be US export demand, which needs to be good over the next 3-4 months as long as prospects remain good in Brazil and Argentina. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are down 2-4 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 7-8 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed/higher, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points. Metals are weaker this morning, with gold futures down $10-11/oz.
The cattle on feed report for October is expected to show cattle on feed as of October 1 at 11.57 mil head, which would be down 0.3% from last year. September placements are seen 4.1% lower than last year at 2.118 mil head, and September marketings are seen 1.7% higher than last year at 1.696 mil head.
China’s ag ministry said they expect total crop output from the country to exceed 700 million tons in the 2024 season for the first time due to higher yields. More than 80% of the crops have already been harvested as of October 24th.
Ukraine’s deputy ag minister on Friday told reporters that the country’s soybean crop will likely exceed 6 mmt’s this season, which would be a new record; soybean production in 2023 totaled just over 4.7 mmt’s. The minister said farmers favored more oilseeds this year due to less input and logistics costs.
According to FranceAgriMer, French corn harvest reached 25% complete as of Monday, October 21st, up from 14% the previous week but still well behind the five-year average for this week of 69%. Soft wheat planting was seen at 21% complete, compared to 47% on average.
The USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report, released yesterday afternoon, showed commercial red meat production in September at 4.45 bil lbs., down just over 3% from August but up more than 2% from September of last year.
Beef production in September was up 2.6% from August but down 3.6% from last year at 2.21 bil lbs., while pork production was down 2.5% from August but up 2.1% from last year at 2.23 bil lbs. September cattle slaughter totaled 2.57 mil head, while hog slaughter totaled 10.521 mil head.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 19th totaled 486k tons, which was down 14.4% from last week. Corn shipments were down 1.8% to 220k tons, and soybean shipments were down nearly 21% at 259k tons. Barge rates at STL were up $2.83 on the week to $30.08/short ton.
Satellite data shows rains were marginally better than expected across parts of the central Corn Belt overnight; 24-hour maps show totals of nearly an inch fell in parts of eastern IA and western IL, mostly along interstate-80. Rains stretched from MO up through WI/MN and into Canada, with more general totals of 0.2-0.3″.
This system looks to make its way through the eastern Corn Belt on Friday, before the weekend and first part of next week again turn mostly drier. A more widespread rain event is still seen for the central part of Midwest the end of next week and into the weekend, with totals seen reaching up to 3″. How this pattern develops next week will be closely watched.
Cool air will work its way east today and tomorrow, with highs through the Midwest on Saturday topping out in the upper 50’s for a lot of areas. Heat returns the first part of next week though, as highs will return to the upper 70’s/lower 80’s Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Things look to then again cool off a bit into next weekend.
Satellite data for South America shows rains favored far southern Brazil on Thursday and reached into more of the east/central growing regions and also down into Uruguay. Parts of far northeast Argentina also saw some of these rains, but the rest of the country was otherwise dry.
The weekend into the first part of next week looks to be mostly dry for Argentina and southern Brazil, while Brazil’s central growing regions are expected to receive anywhere from trace rainfall to up to 3″ between now and Monday.
Have a great day.
View All News >