Good morning.
Ag markets are higher again to start Tuesday trade at the CBOT, with follow-through buying on the weekend trade headlines once again being the theme throughout the space this morning. Corn and soybean futures have pushed their way towards long-standing chart-based resistance the last couple days, but the prospect of payments from the Trump administration and ongoing frustration with current market dynamics has actually limited the farmer selling a bit relative to what we thought we might’ve seen a few weeks ago had futures prices got to current levels. Key from here will be whether the farmer continues to be a stubborn holder of bushels into the new calendar year or if the board rally makes it far enough to get crops to town. As is the case in most years that don’t see a South American weather problem, we anticipate basis having to do a fair amount of the heavy lifting over the next several weeks, especially if the federal government can begin getting checks out. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $4-5/ton and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mixed to start, crude oil futures are down 60-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 220 points, and the US$ index is down 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Gold futures are down around $80/oz.
Despite there still being no weekly crop progress update from the USDA, traders, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, see the US corn harvest as of Sunday the 26th at 72% complete (67%-80%), while soybean harvest is seen at 84% complete (80%-88%); winter wheat planting is also seen at 84% complete (81%-89%). If accurate, harvest pace for both corn and soybeans would continue to be behind that of last year.
The weekly update from Brazil’s CONAB, which comes out on Monday evenings, echoed comments from the private sector yesterday in showing soybean planting pace in the country at 34.4% complete, which compares to 37.7% last year and the five-year average of 42.5%. First crop corn planting was seen at 40% complete vs 36.8% last year, and wheat harvest was seen at 43.3% vs 56% last year.
One of Argentina’s most influential farmer groups, the Argentine Rural Society, said on Monday following election wins by President Javier Milei that it wanted the government to again drop export taxes on ag goods, saying in a statement that “It is of vital importance to reduce the tax burden and the so-called costo argentino,” or what many in the industry call the Argentine cost of doing business. It is unclear this morning what the likelihood of this happening again is or what the timing would be.
Data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (also known as Gapki) released earlier on Tuesday showed 2025 production now at 56 MMTs, which is up from a previous estimate of 54 MMTs. Data also showed palm oil exports in the month of August at 3.473 MMTs, which was down from 3.537 MMTs in July, while stocks in August 2.543 MMTs from 2.568 in July.
Staying on the palm oil front, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said in a statement on Tuesday following an announced trade deal between them and the US that the new deal would further strengthen access for Malaysia’s palm oil. Said the council’s CEO, “Our exports to the United States have recorded strong growth over the past two years, and this measure will further strengthen Malaysia’s competitive position in a high-value and rapidly evolving market.” The two countries agreed to a deal on Sunday that would exempt around 12% of Malaysia’s exports to the US from tariffs, including palm oil.
The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS), in a monthly update on Monday, lowered their estimate of the bloc’s corn yields from 6.88 tons/ha to 6.82 tons/ha, citing hot weather and a lack of moisture that were also blamed for reductions in yields last month. The group added winter grain sowing had been progressing under mostly favorable conditions in most of western and central Europe.
Canadian PM Mark Carney said on Monday that he expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea, telling reporters in Malaysia that “it’s the start of a broader discussion.” A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Ottawa declined to comment on the matter, and there were no further details given as to when this meeting might possibly occur. Of note, Canada’s Ag Minister is also in China this week for talks on related trade issues, further signaling efforts by both sides to find common ground amid ongoing hostilities with the US.
The US and Japan have signed a strategic trade agreement in Tokyo this week, which includes a planned $550 billion investment in the US that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says will focus on “power, pipelines, and other infrastructure critical to national security with virtually no risk.” Lutnick added that tariffs on Japanese-made semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would remain at 15%, signaling that while progress is being made between the two sides, notable strategic differences still exist.
Reports from both Reuters and Bloomberg show that OPEC+ is considering another round of modest production increases at its next meeting on Sunday, which if it happens, would be the third straight month of increasing output. The modest increase of just around 137,000 bbls/day indicates an ongoing effort by the group to try and find balance between higher output levels and concerns over global demand stability and price volatility.
Not a ton new forecast-wise this morning for either the Midwest or South America. Starting with the Midwest, models continue to see a low-pressure system diving through the western part of the region through the day today and into tonight, with this system then curling through the southeast and up the East Coast then the back half of the week Thursday/Friday. Still notable is a dry pocket through the northern parts of IL/IN and then into WI and MI where rainfall is expected to remain limited through the weekend and into the week next week.
In South America, models are slightly wetter through the end of the week for southern and south-central Brazil but are otherwise little changed from yesterday’s runs in showing an expansion of precipitation northward through the weekend and into the week next week. Argentina will see light rainfall through the weekend and into the first part of the week next week as well, but precipitation looks to generally favor the northern growing regions in the country, while there will be areas further to the south that are maybe short-
changed.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-28-25
Good morning.
Ag markets are higher again to start Tuesday trade at the CBOT, with follow-through buying on the weekend trade headlines once again being the theme throughout the space this morning. Corn and soybean futures have pushed their way towards long-standing chart-based resistance the last couple days, but the prospect of payments from the Trump administration and ongoing frustration with current market dynamics has actually limited the farmer selling a bit relative to what we thought we might’ve seen a few weeks ago had futures prices got to current levels. Key from here will be whether the farmer continues to be a stubborn holder of bushels into the new calendar year or if the board rally makes it far enough to get crops to town. As is the case in most years that don’t see a South American weather problem, we anticipate basis having to do a fair amount of the heavy lifting over the next several weeks, especially if the federal government can begin getting checks out. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $4-5/ton and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mixed to start, crude oil futures are down 60-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 220 points, and the US$ index is down 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 30 points. Gold futures are down around $80/oz.
Despite there still being no weekly crop progress update from the USDA, traders, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, see the US corn harvest as of Sunday the 26th at 72% complete (67%-80%), while soybean harvest is seen at 84% complete (80%-88%); winter wheat planting is also seen at 84% complete (81%-89%). If accurate, harvest pace for both corn and soybeans would continue to be behind that of last year.
The weekly update from Brazil’s CONAB, which comes out on Monday evenings, echoed comments from the private sector yesterday in showing soybean planting pace in the country at 34.4% complete, which compares to 37.7% last year and the five-year average of 42.5%. First crop corn planting was seen at 40% complete vs 36.8% last year, and wheat harvest was seen at 43.3% vs 56% last year.
One of Argentina’s most influential farmer groups, the Argentine Rural Society, said on Monday following election wins by President Javier Milei that it wanted the government to again drop export taxes on ag goods, saying in a statement that “It is of vital importance to reduce the tax burden and the so-called costo argentino,” or what many in the industry call the Argentine cost of doing business. It is unclear this morning what the likelihood of this happening again is or what the timing would be.
Data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (also known as Gapki) released earlier on Tuesday showed 2025 production now at 56 MMTs, which is up from a previous estimate of 54 MMTs. Data also showed palm oil exports in the month of August at 3.473 MMTs, which was down from 3.537 MMTs in July, while stocks in August 2.543 MMTs from 2.568 in July.
Staying on the palm oil front, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said in a statement on Tuesday following an announced trade deal between them and the US that the new deal would further strengthen access for Malaysia’s palm oil. Said the council’s CEO, “Our exports to the United States have recorded strong growth over the past two years, and this measure will further strengthen Malaysia’s competitive position in a high-value and rapidly evolving market.” The two countries agreed to a deal on Sunday that would exempt around 12% of Malaysia’s exports to the US from tariffs, including palm oil.
The European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS), in a monthly update on Monday, lowered their estimate of the bloc’s corn yields from 6.88 tons/ha to 6.82 tons/ha, citing hot weather and a lack of moisture that were also blamed for reductions in yields last month. The group added winter grain sowing had been progressing under mostly favorable conditions in most of western and central Europe.
Canadian PM Mark Carney said on Monday that he expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea, telling reporters in Malaysia that “it’s the start of a broader discussion.” A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Ottawa declined to comment on the matter, and there were no further details given as to when this meeting might possibly occur. Of note, Canada’s Ag Minister is also in China this week for talks on related trade issues, further signaling efforts by both sides to find common ground amid ongoing hostilities with the US.
The US and Japan have signed a strategic trade agreement in Tokyo this week, which includes a planned $550 billion investment in the US that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says will focus on “power, pipelines, and other infrastructure critical to national security with virtually no risk.” Lutnick added that tariffs on Japanese-made semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would remain at 15%, signaling that while progress is being made between the two sides, notable strategic differences still exist.
Reports from both Reuters and Bloomberg show that OPEC+ is considering another round of modest production increases at its next meeting on Sunday, which if it happens, would be the third straight month of increasing output. The modest increase of just around 137,000 bbls/day indicates an ongoing effort by the group to try and find balance between higher output levels and concerns over global demand stability and price volatility.
Not a ton new forecast-wise this morning for either the Midwest or South America. Starting with the Midwest, models continue to see a low-pressure system diving through the western part of the region through the day today and into tonight, with this system then curling through the southeast and up the East Coast then the back half of the week Thursday/Friday. Still notable is a dry pocket through the northern parts of IL/IN and then into WI and MI where rainfall is expected to remain limited through the weekend and into the week next week.
In South America, models are slightly wetter through the end of the week for southern and south-central Brazil but are otherwise little changed from yesterday’s runs in showing an expansion of precipitation northward through the weekend and into the week next week. Argentina will see light rainfall through the weekend and into the first part of the week next week as well, but precipitation looks to generally favor the northern growing regions in the country, while there will be areas further to the south that are maybe short-
changed.
Have a great day.
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