Good morning.
While there was not any signs of a correction on the typical ‘turn-around-Tuesday’ yesterday, markets in the ag space are seeing that pullback now this morning as the overnight trade has been marked with corrective action pretty much from the word go. Nothing has changed; the Trump-Xi meeting, as far as we know, is still on as scheduled and there hasn’t been any new incendiary rhetoric overnight, but the markets had become slightly overbought over the last few days, making a small pullback probably warranted. We made mention of this yesterday, but on the highs, corn futures were some 40 cents off the fall lows and soybean futures were nearly a dollar off the lows; to not expect some sort of selling on behalf of the farmer with that being the case would seem to be a misjudgment. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 50-60 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 110 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending October 24th is expected to show average daily production for the week in a range of 1.110-1.115 mil bbls, while stocks are seen between 21.70-22.60 mil bbls.
Reuters is reporting this morning that China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO purchased three cargoes, or roughly 180,000 MTs, of soybeans from the US for Dec-Jan shipment on Tuesday, though traders see the purchases as more of a political show of good faith ahead of meetings at the end of the week than the start of a prolonged buying program. Basis improvements in the northwestern Corn Belt in recent days would also argue that this business likely did, in fact, take place.
Published weekly export data from the European Commission showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports as of October 26th at 6.2 MMTs, which is down from 7.9 MMTs through the same period last year; data also showed barely exports at 2.6 MMTs, up 58% from last year, while corn imports were seen at 5 MTs, down 27% from last year. Export data continues to be incomplete due to ongoing technical issues.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates another quarter-percentage point this afternoon at 1pm central time to a range of 3.75%-4.0%. With the move priced in for weeks now, economists will be interested in whether there are any dissenting voters and will also be watching for any sort of comments on what, if any, affects the ongoing lack of data from the government shutdown has had on the Fed’s policy decisions.
President Trump said on social media yesterday that a trade deal between the US and South Korea would be finalized “very soon”. Meanwhile, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins also took to social media to hail an announced $8 billion purchase agreement from Japan which includes plans to purchase US corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol, and other farm products.
Finally on the trade front, US officials met with mining executives in Brazil on Tuesday for discussions centered on rare earth elements and mineral supply chains, in a move that underscores Washington’s efforts to further decouple from the Chinese. Details of the meeting were not immediately available this morning.
Satellite data for the Midwest shows 24-hour precipitation totals ranging from a tenth or two to around an inch through a lot of the western Corn Belt on Tuesday, with the area receiving precipitation generally stretching from northern MN all the way to the Mississippi Delta region. Forecasts show this system then working through the southeast through the day today and into the end of the week, with similar to slightly heavier totals expected to fall across much of the eastern US and up the East Coast. The north-central part of the Midwest continues to look dry.
Once this system moves out though, models are in fair agreement then on mostly drier conditions returning to the Midwest then through the first part of November, while the northwest and northeast look to stay on the wetter side of average. Temperatures also look to warm back up to slightly above average into the middle of November, with the extended forecast from both the EU and the GFS models showing this solution into November 13th.
Models have continued to trend wetter through southern and central Brazil over the next 10 days and into the end of the week next week, with the EU forecast this morning now showing 2-6″ of rain for most all of the southern 2/3’s of Brazil between now and the end of the day next Friday. Argentina will see lesser precipitation in the period for the primary growing areas but will see regular storm activity in the western part of the country, which would make its way east and impact more of the higher production regions.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-29-2025
Good morning.
While there was not any signs of a correction on the typical ‘turn-around-Tuesday’ yesterday, markets in the ag space are seeing that pullback now this morning as the overnight trade has been marked with corrective action pretty much from the word go. Nothing has changed; the Trump-Xi meeting, as far as we know, is still on as scheduled and there hasn’t been any new incendiary rhetoric overnight, but the markets had become slightly overbought over the last few days, making a small pullback probably warranted. We made mention of this yesterday, but on the highs, corn futures were some 40 cents off the fall lows and soybean futures were nearly a dollar off the lows; to not expect some sort of selling on behalf of the farmer with that being the case would seem to be a misjudgment. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 50-60 points. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 110 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending October 24th is expected to show average daily production for the week in a range of 1.110-1.115 mil bbls, while stocks are seen between 21.70-22.60 mil bbls.
Reuters is reporting this morning that China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO purchased three cargoes, or roughly 180,000 MTs, of soybeans from the US for Dec-Jan shipment on Tuesday, though traders see the purchases as more of a political show of good faith ahead of meetings at the end of the week than the start of a prolonged buying program. Basis improvements in the northwestern Corn Belt in recent days would also argue that this business likely did, in fact, take place.
Published weekly export data from the European Commission showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports as of October 26th at 6.2 MMTs, which is down from 7.9 MMTs through the same period last year; data also showed barely exports at 2.6 MMTs, up 58% from last year, while corn imports were seen at 5 MTs, down 27% from last year. Export data continues to be incomplete due to ongoing technical issues.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates another quarter-percentage point this afternoon at 1pm central time to a range of 3.75%-4.0%. With the move priced in for weeks now, economists will be interested in whether there are any dissenting voters and will also be watching for any sort of comments on what, if any, affects the ongoing lack of data from the government shutdown has had on the Fed’s policy decisions.
President Trump said on social media yesterday that a trade deal between the US and South Korea would be finalized “very soon”. Meanwhile, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins also took to social media to hail an announced $8 billion purchase agreement from Japan which includes plans to purchase US corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol, and other farm products.
Finally on the trade front, US officials met with mining executives in Brazil on Tuesday for discussions centered on rare earth elements and mineral supply chains, in a move that underscores Washington’s efforts to further decouple from the Chinese. Details of the meeting were not immediately available this morning.
Satellite data for the Midwest shows 24-hour precipitation totals ranging from a tenth or two to around an inch through a lot of the western Corn Belt on Tuesday, with the area receiving precipitation generally stretching from northern MN all the way to the Mississippi Delta region. Forecasts show this system then working through the southeast through the day today and into the end of the week, with similar to slightly heavier totals expected to fall across much of the eastern US and up the East Coast. The north-central part of the Midwest continues to look dry.
Once this system moves out though, models are in fair agreement then on mostly drier conditions returning to the Midwest then through the first part of November, while the northwest and northeast look to stay on the wetter side of average. Temperatures also look to warm back up to slightly above average into the middle of November, with the extended forecast from both the EU and the GFS models showing this solution into November 13th.
Models have continued to trend wetter through southern and central Brazil over the next 10 days and into the end of the week next week, with the EU forecast this morning now showing 2-6″ of rain for most all of the southern 2/3’s of Brazil between now and the end of the day next Friday. Argentina will see lesser precipitation in the period for the primary growing areas but will see regular storm activity in the western part of the country, which would make its way east and impact more of the higher production regions.
Have a great day.
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