Good morning.
Ag markets across the CBOT are trading mostly mixed to start Thursday morning following an overnight sell-off that could be best described as a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ type of trade, with the soy complex mostly higher and the grain markets unchanged to lower. We’ll get into more details on the talks below, but generally speaking, what information that’s coming out on the meeting this morning is mostly a continuation of the themes discussed between lower ranking officials in Malaysia last weekend. Key for the rest of the week from here will be whether downside momentum emerges at some point the next couple days to fill the soybean chart-gaps left from the Sunday night open or if short-covering and optimism on Chinese buying is enough to keep markets above what have been old resistance levels. Choppy, volatile, trade is the most likely outcome for the next two sessions. To start Thursday trade, corn futures are trading either side if unchanged, soybean futures are 6-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $5-6/ton and soybean oil is down around 30 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 200 points, and the US$ index is near up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 70 points.
President Trump described his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Thursday evening (Friday local time) as “amazing” and gave it a 12 on the proverbial 1-10 scale. Trump said he would immediately lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% and mentioned that fentanyl-related tariffs would be lowered from 20% to 10%, while also noting that an agreement had been reached on rare-earth mineral flows via a one-year renewable agreement. The President further added that semiconductor sales had been discussed and that he would subsequently be speaking with the leaders of Nvidia and other tech companies on that matter.
As it pertains to soybeans, Trump said that the Chinese would resume purchases from the US “immediately”, with Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioning 12 MMTs of old crop purchases planned for a period between now and January, as well as plans for 25 MMTs of purchases per year for the next three years. Bessent further added other Asian countries had agreed to buy an additional 19 MMTs of US soybeans but did not layout a timeframe for these purchases.
Staying on the topic of trade, President Trump also announced on social media that a $350 billion trade deal had been reached with South Korea, saying that the Asian country would be making large-scale purchases of US oil and gas and that planned investments by South Korean companies and private investors on US projects would total upwards of $600 billion. For China, its trade delegation is scheduled to meet with officials from the EU on Friday, while officials also met with counterparts from Canada to discuss trade on Thursday. Lastly, Chinese President Xi is scheduled to meet with Japanese PM Takaichi on Friday as well.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders expect this morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 23rd would have shown corn sales between 1.1-2.1 MMTs, soybean sales between 700k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-900k MTs. The report will not be released this morning though, as it continue to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.
A spokesperson from Argentina’s main oilseed workers union said on Wednesday that its members and the industry chamber they are negotiating with are “very far apart” on talks over increasing wages, making a strike next week a larger possibility. On Tuesday, Argentina’s government extended a conciliation period which they had ordered a month ago by one week to November 6th.
Mexico’s ag secretary said on Wednesday that no date has been set between Mexico and the US to resume cattle trade at the two country’s border, despite reports in recent days that such a move was imminent following comments from President Trump that beef prices needed to come down.
Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday expectedly lowered their benchmark lending rates by a quarter-percentage point a piece, while economists expect a similar move from the European Central Bank later this morning. Following the US cut yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a more hawkish message, telling reporters that a December rate cut was not a given and that the Committee remains divided on further easing. These comments come despite the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning still showing a nearly 70% chance that another quarter-point cut is seen in December.
Rains continued to dot the southeastern portion of the Midwest on Wednesday according to satellite data, though the bulk of the Midwest saw mostly dry conditions throughout the day. Forecasts this morning show additional rains up the East Coast this morning and through the day tomorrow, with rains expected to generally stay north of the US and into Canada through the week next week. Midwest temperatures will be cooler for another four or five days before warmer air is seen working back into the area by the middle of the week next week.
South American forecasts continue to be nearly ideal, especially for Brazil, as most all of the growing regions here are expected to receive good rainfall between now and the middle of the week next week. For Argentina, things will be drier in the country’s eastern growing regions through the week next week, but rains then expand the back half of the week again here also. Overnight frost risks will linger for another week or so but generally impact a fairly small area of the country’s production.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 10-30-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets across the CBOT are trading mostly mixed to start Thursday morning following an overnight sell-off that could be best described as a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ type of trade, with the soy complex mostly higher and the grain markets unchanged to lower. We’ll get into more details on the talks below, but generally speaking, what information that’s coming out on the meeting this morning is mostly a continuation of the themes discussed between lower ranking officials in Malaysia last weekend. Key for the rest of the week from here will be whether downside momentum emerges at some point the next couple days to fill the soybean chart-gaps left from the Sunday night open or if short-covering and optimism on Chinese buying is enough to keep markets above what have been old resistance levels. Choppy, volatile, trade is the most likely outcome for the next two sessions. To start Thursday trade, corn futures are trading either side if unchanged, soybean futures are 6-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $5-6/ton and soybean oil is down around 30 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 200 points, and the US$ index is near up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 70 points.
President Trump described his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Thursday evening (Friday local time) as “amazing” and gave it a 12 on the proverbial 1-10 scale. Trump said he would immediately lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% and mentioned that fentanyl-related tariffs would be lowered from 20% to 10%, while also noting that an agreement had been reached on rare-earth mineral flows via a one-year renewable agreement. The President further added that semiconductor sales had been discussed and that he would subsequently be speaking with the leaders of Nvidia and other tech companies on that matter.
As it pertains to soybeans, Trump said that the Chinese would resume purchases from the US “immediately”, with Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioning 12 MMTs of old crop purchases planned for a period between now and January, as well as plans for 25 MMTs of purchases per year for the next three years. Bessent further added other Asian countries had agreed to buy an additional 19 MMTs of US soybeans but did not layout a timeframe for these purchases.
Staying on the topic of trade, President Trump also announced on social media that a $350 billion trade deal had been reached with South Korea, saying that the Asian country would be making large-scale purchases of US oil and gas and that planned investments by South Korean companies and private investors on US projects would total upwards of $600 billion. For China, its trade delegation is scheduled to meet with officials from the EU on Friday, while officials also met with counterparts from Canada to discuss trade on Thursday. Lastly, Chinese President Xi is scheduled to meet with Japanese PM Takaichi on Friday as well.
According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders expect this morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 23rd would have shown corn sales between 1.1-2.1 MMTs, soybean sales between 700k-1.6 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 350k-900k MTs. The report will not be released this morning though, as it continue to be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.
A spokesperson from Argentina’s main oilseed workers union said on Wednesday that its members and the industry chamber they are negotiating with are “very far apart” on talks over increasing wages, making a strike next week a larger possibility. On Tuesday, Argentina’s government extended a conciliation period which they had ordered a month ago by one week to November 6th.
Mexico’s ag secretary said on Wednesday that no date has been set between Mexico and the US to resume cattle trade at the two country’s border, despite reports in recent days that such a move was imminent following comments from President Trump that beef prices needed to come down.
Both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday expectedly lowered their benchmark lending rates by a quarter-percentage point a piece, while economists expect a similar move from the European Central Bank later this morning. Following the US cut yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a more hawkish message, telling reporters that a December rate cut was not a given and that the Committee remains divided on further easing. These comments come despite the CME’s FedWatch tool this morning still showing a nearly 70% chance that another quarter-point cut is seen in December.
Rains continued to dot the southeastern portion of the Midwest on Wednesday according to satellite data, though the bulk of the Midwest saw mostly dry conditions throughout the day. Forecasts this morning show additional rains up the East Coast this morning and through the day tomorrow, with rains expected to generally stay north of the US and into Canada through the week next week. Midwest temperatures will be cooler for another four or five days before warmer air is seen working back into the area by the middle of the week next week.
South American forecasts continue to be nearly ideal, especially for Brazil, as most all of the growing regions here are expected to receive good rainfall between now and the middle of the week next week. For Argentina, things will be drier in the country’s eastern growing regions through the week next week, but rains then expand the back half of the week again here also. Overnight frost risks will linger for another week or so but generally impact a fairly small area of the country’s production.
Have a great day!
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