Good morning.
Markets are seeing a bit of a classic turn-around-Tuesday at the board of trade this morning, led to the upside by soybean oil. New news is mostly minimal, as the bounce in corn and soybean prices seems to be entirely technical; the soy complex (beans and meal) had again become quite oversold, while the same could be said about wheat futures. We see another choppy trading session as likely on Tuesday, as macro influence continues to have an outsized impact on price discovery over the rest of this week and into next. Corn future this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 3-5 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 140 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. Both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are trading near unchanged.
Yesterday’s weekly harvest progress update showed US corn harvest at 81% complete, while soybean harvest was seen at 89% complete; both continue to run well ahead of their respective five-year averages of 64% and 78%.
At the state level on a percentage basis, furthest states behind on corn harvest are Pennsylvania (50% complete), Colorado (58%), Michigan (62%) and Minnesota (65%). Furthest states behind on soybean planting are North Carolina (37%), Kentucky (64%), and Missouri (75%).
Winter wheat planting reached 80% complete, up from 73% last week and compared to the five-year average of 84%. Condition ratings in the g/ex rating started the season at 38%, compared to 47% last year; emergence was seen at 56%, up from 46% last week and compared to the five-year average of 61%.
Ukrainian ag consultancy UkrAgroConsult said in a statement on Monday that wheat exports in the July-September period totaled 6.1 mmt’s, which is nearly double the amount in the same period in 2023.
The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit on Monday lowered yield estimates for corn, soybeans and sunflowers due to continued unfavorable weather; corn yield is now seen at 6.66 tons/ha, while soybean yield is seen at 2.72 tons/ha.
This morning’s JOLTs jobs report for the month of September is expected to show job openings in the month falling back below the 8 million level, after rising to 8.04 mil in the August report. Otherwise, equity market chatter this week is all about the election that is now just one week from today.
Satellite data shows the state of Michigan received scattered/light rainfall on Monday, while the rest of the Midwest was mostly dry. Scattered showers were also seen across parts of the western Plains and also into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast for the rest of the week remains mostly unchanged from Monday, as models continue to be in good agreement on a coming wet period for the eastern/central US. The EU is the slightly wetter of the two models, but we see some sort of blend of it and the GFS as likely being the most probable outcome.
Week-two forecasts also continue to show wetter biases for the eastern and central parts of the country, which will be beneficial to the newly planted winter wheat crop. As of today, it does not appear as though the coming rain event will be a one-off situation.
On the temp side, week two guidance continues to trend cooler across most all of the country, while the same ‘warm east/cool west’ pattern that we’ve seen for weeks now remains in place in the meantime. Highs across the Corn Belt will touch the 80’s today and tomorrow, before things cool off a bit by the end of the week.
Satellite data out of South America for Monday showed another day of steady/mostly light rains in central/eastern Brazil, while southern Brazil into Argentina was again dry. Totals ranged from 0.01″ to 0.5″ generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts. More of the same is expected again on Tuesday, before models see rainfall returning for Argentina by the end of this week and into the weekend. Both week one and week two precipitation maps show some sort of moisture across the majority of both countries, but exact amounts/locations will be watched for.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-29-2024
Good morning.
Markets are seeing a bit of a classic turn-around-Tuesday at the board of trade this morning, led to the upside by soybean oil. New news is mostly minimal, as the bounce in corn and soybean prices seems to be entirely technical; the soy complex (beans and meal) had again become quite oversold, while the same could be said about wheat futures. We see another choppy trading session as likely on Tuesday, as macro influence continues to have an outsized impact on price discovery over the rest of this week and into next. Corn future this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 3-5 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 140 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. Both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ are trading near unchanged.
Yesterday’s weekly harvest progress update showed US corn harvest at 81% complete, while soybean harvest was seen at 89% complete; both continue to run well ahead of their respective five-year averages of 64% and 78%.
At the state level on a percentage basis, furthest states behind on corn harvest are Pennsylvania (50% complete), Colorado (58%), Michigan (62%) and Minnesota (65%). Furthest states behind on soybean planting are North Carolina (37%), Kentucky (64%), and Missouri (75%).
Winter wheat planting reached 80% complete, up from 73% last week and compared to the five-year average of 84%. Condition ratings in the g/ex rating started the season at 38%, compared to 47% last year; emergence was seen at 56%, up from 46% last week and compared to the five-year average of 61%.
Ukrainian ag consultancy UkrAgroConsult said in a statement on Monday that wheat exports in the July-September period totaled 6.1 mmt’s, which is nearly double the amount in the same period in 2023.
The EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit on Monday lowered yield estimates for corn, soybeans and sunflowers due to continued unfavorable weather; corn yield is now seen at 6.66 tons/ha, while soybean yield is seen at 2.72 tons/ha.
This morning’s JOLTs jobs report for the month of September is expected to show job openings in the month falling back below the 8 million level, after rising to 8.04 mil in the August report. Otherwise, equity market chatter this week is all about the election that is now just one week from today.
Satellite data shows the state of Michigan received scattered/light rainfall on Monday, while the rest of the Midwest was mostly dry. Scattered showers were also seen across parts of the western Plains and also into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast for the rest of the week remains mostly unchanged from Monday, as models continue to be in good agreement on a coming wet period for the eastern/central US. The EU is the slightly wetter of the two models, but we see some sort of blend of it and the GFS as likely being the most probable outcome.
Week-two forecasts also continue to show wetter biases for the eastern and central parts of the country, which will be beneficial to the newly planted winter wheat crop. As of today, it does not appear as though the coming rain event will be a one-off situation.
On the temp side, week two guidance continues to trend cooler across most all of the country, while the same ‘warm east/cool west’ pattern that we’ve seen for weeks now remains in place in the meantime. Highs across the Corn Belt will touch the 80’s today and tomorrow, before things cool off a bit by the end of the week.
Satellite data out of South America for Monday showed another day of steady/mostly light rains in central/eastern Brazil, while southern Brazil into Argentina was again dry. Totals ranged from 0.01″ to 0.5″ generally speaking, with some locally heavier amounts. More of the same is expected again on Tuesday, before models see rainfall returning for Argentina by the end of this week and into the weekend. Both week one and week two precipitation maps show some sort of moisture across the majority of both countries, but exact amounts/locations will be watched for.
Have a great day.
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