Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Wednesday in what is a bit of a reversal of yesterday’s trade; the grains are retracing some of yesterday’s gains, while soybeans are trying to recover a portion of the day’s losses. Light volume and small trading ranges has been the general theme so far, while we continue to reiterate that this will likely be the case for most of the remainder of this week and into next as there are few traders willing to take on new positions ahead of the November 5th Presidential election. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 3-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 50 points. Gold futures are higher and again made new contract highs overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 25th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.071-1.096 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 21.823-22.650 mil bbls.
California Governor Gavin Newsome sent a letter to the state’s Air Resources Board this week asking the group to ‘prioritize resources’ to authorize the use of E15 ethanol blends at the statewide level. CA is currently the only state in the US where the sale of E15 is not allowed.
According to a report released by StatsCanada on Tuesday, canola processing in the month of September was seen at 933k tons, which was up just over 1% from the same month last year. Oil production totaled 395k tons, and meal output was seen at 544k tons, which were also both nearly 1% higher than last year. Cumulative YTD crush is up 1.7% from last year at 1.784 mmt’s.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee on Tuesday said they see the country’s corn crop in the 2023/24 season declining by more than 22% from the year prior to 12.72 mmt’s. The estimate is down marginally from the group’s September estimate of 12.80 mmt’s.
Ukraine’s sunoil producers’ union on Wednesday said they 2024/25 sunoil output from the country at 5.6 mil tons, down from 2023/24’s 6.6 mil tons; exports are also seen falling a similar 1 mil tons from 2023/24 to 5.2 mil tons.
There is talk this morning that China could announce port closures for 20-30 days to review quarantine rules according to sources familiar with the matter. There are few details available as of this writing, but such action would likely lead to a backlog of ships at China’s ports.
Aside from private earnings headlined by Microsoft and Meta, the equity world on Wednesday will be focused on GDP data for the third quarter, which is expected to show a 3.0% annualized increase; this would match the increase from Q2, while estimates ranged anywhere from 2.0% to 3.5%.
Rains fell in the far northeast and into Canada on Tuesday, and also in a band from the eastern Rocky Mountains to the northern Plains and northern Midwest according to satellite data, with totals in the central part of the country ranging from trace amounts to up to an inch in some places.
Forecasts show an additional 1-2″ of precipitation possible through the central part of the country in through the weekend, while a subsequent storm system is still seen providing moisture to the same areas again next week. Week-two forecasts shifted slightly drier overnight, but still see above average precipitation chances for the central and southern parts of the country.
10–15-day temperature maps shifted a bit warmer overnight, and now see more of a continuation of the warm east/cool west pattern that has been in place for most of the past month. As we continue saying, bouts of cooler air will pass through the country, but the overall pattern looks to be continuing to be mostly above average now into the middle of November.
South American rainfall on Tuesday was nearly identical to what was seen on Monday; Argentina was mostly dry, while central and northern growing areas in Brazil saw light/scattered precipitation. Totals generally ranged from trace amounts to a half inch.
Forecast updates for the rest of the week were minimal overnight; Argentina will be dry for another day or two, before better rains return into the weekend and first part of next week. And in Brazil, southern areas see a similar rainfall situation to that in Argentina, while central and northern areas continue to see near daily showers.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-30-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets are mixed to start Wednesday in what is a bit of a reversal of yesterday’s trade; the grains are retracing some of yesterday’s gains, while soybeans are trying to recover a portion of the day’s losses. Light volume and small trading ranges has been the general theme so far, while we continue to reiterate that this will likely be the case for most of the remainder of this week and into next as there are few traders willing to take on new positions ahead of the November 5th Presidential election. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 3-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 50 points. Gold futures are higher and again made new contract highs overnight.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending October 25th is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.071-1.096 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 21.823-22.650 mil bbls.
California Governor Gavin Newsome sent a letter to the state’s Air Resources Board this week asking the group to ‘prioritize resources’ to authorize the use of E15 ethanol blends at the statewide level. CA is currently the only state in the US where the sale of E15 is not allowed.
According to a report released by StatsCanada on Tuesday, canola processing in the month of September was seen at 933k tons, which was up just over 1% from the same month last year. Oil production totaled 395k tons, and meal output was seen at 544k tons, which were also both nearly 1% higher than last year. Cumulative YTD crush is up 1.7% from last year at 1.784 mmt’s.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee on Tuesday said they see the country’s corn crop in the 2023/24 season declining by more than 22% from the year prior to 12.72 mmt’s. The estimate is down marginally from the group’s September estimate of 12.80 mmt’s.
Ukraine’s sunoil producers’ union on Wednesday said they 2024/25 sunoil output from the country at 5.6 mil tons, down from 2023/24’s 6.6 mil tons; exports are also seen falling a similar 1 mil tons from 2023/24 to 5.2 mil tons.
There is talk this morning that China could announce port closures for 20-30 days to review quarantine rules according to sources familiar with the matter. There are few details available as of this writing, but such action would likely lead to a backlog of ships at China’s ports.
Aside from private earnings headlined by Microsoft and Meta, the equity world on Wednesday will be focused on GDP data for the third quarter, which is expected to show a 3.0% annualized increase; this would match the increase from Q2, while estimates ranged anywhere from 2.0% to 3.5%.
Rains fell in the far northeast and into Canada on Tuesday, and also in a band from the eastern Rocky Mountains to the northern Plains and northern Midwest according to satellite data, with totals in the central part of the country ranging from trace amounts to up to an inch in some places.
Forecasts show an additional 1-2″ of precipitation possible through the central part of the country in through the weekend, while a subsequent storm system is still seen providing moisture to the same areas again next week. Week-two forecasts shifted slightly drier overnight, but still see above average precipitation chances for the central and southern parts of the country.
10–15-day temperature maps shifted a bit warmer overnight, and now see more of a continuation of the warm east/cool west pattern that has been in place for most of the past month. As we continue saying, bouts of cooler air will pass through the country, but the overall pattern looks to be continuing to be mostly above average now into the middle of November.
South American rainfall on Tuesday was nearly identical to what was seen on Monday; Argentina was mostly dry, while central and northern growing areas in Brazil saw light/scattered precipitation. Totals generally ranged from trace amounts to a half inch.
Forecast updates for the rest of the week were minimal overnight; Argentina will be dry for another day or two, before better rains return into the weekend and first part of next week. And in Brazil, southern areas see a similar rainfall situation to that in Argentina, while central and northern areas continue to see near daily showers.
Have a great day.
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