Good morning.
Another night of choppy/quiet trade is being had in Chicago to start Thursday, with the corn and wheat markets marginally lower and the soy complex marginally higher. Dec corn made new lows for the week overnight, but the overall fundamental picture continues to remain mostly the same; the weather situation in South America seems to have kept record yield potential intact through what would be comparable to April in the US, while the general ‘risk-off’ theme from outside market spillover continues to linger into next week. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are 30-40 cents higher, the Dow Jones index is down 170 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged. The S&P500 is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 145 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 24th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales between 1.8-3.5 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.6-2.8 mil mt’s, and wheat sales between 300k-600k mt’s. 2025/26 corn sales are estimated between 0-500k mt’s, and 2025/26 soybean sales are estimated between 0-150k mt’s.
Reuters on Wednesday reported that an official from China’s Ag Ministry, speaking at a forum in Moscow, said that China was willing to cooperate more closely with Russia in the soybean industry, adding that ag cooperation was a key component of China-Russia bilateral relations.
Ukraine’s ag minister on Wednesday said the country was planning to launch a new minimum grain export price program that looked to be operational by December. The plan was originally set to go into effect in August but was delayed due to legislative hold-ups.
USDA’s ag attaché to Argentina on Wednesday raised their estimate of soybean production in the country in the 2024/25 season to 52 mmt’s, up 1 mmt from their previous estimate and also 1 mmt above the current USDA forecast. Same group sees harvested area at 17.2 mil hectares.
Also in Argentina, a 24-hour strike was started yesterday by transportation unions in the country against President Milei’s new austerity measures; the strike disrupted grain shipments in the Rosario area, and also affected thousands of people due to the lack of operating trains and airplanes.
Financial markets on Thursday look to have their sites set mostly on the private earnings slate, as weekly jobs data will take a backseat to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Also out today will be an update to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, which is expected to show annual inflation at 2.1%, which would be the lowest level since early 2021.
Rainfall has arrived at the Midwest overnight, with satellite data showing totals of 0.1-2″ generally speaking from OK through WI and into Canada. Heaviest totals appear to be in south/central IA and into southern WI.
Rains are expected to continue falling through the day on Thursday and into the early morning hours on Friday, but a couple days of dryness will return after this; both the EU and the GFS see an additional 0.5-3″ possible for most of the Midwest through the weekend.
The second system that has been advertised then looks to keep things went into early next week, with more rains seen for a large area of the country’s mid-section Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. The EU AI’s week-two forecast has stayed wet, but the EU and GFS ensemble models have trended drier for all but the southern part of the country.
The GFS’s 10–15-day temperature outlook again trended warmer in the east overnight, as warmer than average temps are expected to remain in place now through at least November 15th. We will keep repeating, this doesn’t mean there won’t be cooler days, but the overall pattern will be one of mostly above average temperatures.
Rains pushed further north into Brazil on Wednesday, with totals in Mato Grosso/Para/Tocantins ranging from 0.1-2″. Argentina was again mostly dry save for light/scattered showers in a very small area in the north/northeast.
Forecast continues to show better rains returning for Argentina and southern Brazil over the next three days; totals will generally be less than an inch, but some local areas could receive up to 1-2″. No changes for central/northern Brazil.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-31-2024
Good morning.
Another night of choppy/quiet trade is being had in Chicago to start Thursday, with the corn and wheat markets marginally lower and the soy complex marginally higher. Dec corn made new lows for the week overnight, but the overall fundamental picture continues to remain mostly the same; the weather situation in South America seems to have kept record yield potential intact through what would be comparable to April in the US, while the general ‘risk-off’ theme from outside market spillover continues to linger into next week. Corn futures this morning are trading a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are 30-40 cents higher, the Dow Jones index is down 170 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged. The S&P500 is down 40 points, and the NASDAQ is down 145 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 24th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales between 1.8-3.5 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.6-2.8 mil mt’s, and wheat sales between 300k-600k mt’s. 2025/26 corn sales are estimated between 0-500k mt’s, and 2025/26 soybean sales are estimated between 0-150k mt’s.
Reuters on Wednesday reported that an official from China’s Ag Ministry, speaking at a forum in Moscow, said that China was willing to cooperate more closely with Russia in the soybean industry, adding that ag cooperation was a key component of China-Russia bilateral relations.
Ukraine’s ag minister on Wednesday said the country was planning to launch a new minimum grain export price program that looked to be operational by December. The plan was originally set to go into effect in August but was delayed due to legislative hold-ups.
USDA’s ag attaché to Argentina on Wednesday raised their estimate of soybean production in the country in the 2024/25 season to 52 mmt’s, up 1 mmt from their previous estimate and also 1 mmt above the current USDA forecast. Same group sees harvested area at 17.2 mil hectares.
Also in Argentina, a 24-hour strike was started yesterday by transportation unions in the country against President Milei’s new austerity measures; the strike disrupted grain shipments in the Rosario area, and also affected thousands of people due to the lack of operating trains and airplanes.
Financial markets on Thursday look to have their sites set mostly on the private earnings slate, as weekly jobs data will take a backseat to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Also out today will be an update to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, which is expected to show annual inflation at 2.1%, which would be the lowest level since early 2021.
Rainfall has arrived at the Midwest overnight, with satellite data showing totals of 0.1-2″ generally speaking from OK through WI and into Canada. Heaviest totals appear to be in south/central IA and into southern WI.
Rains are expected to continue falling through the day on Thursday and into the early morning hours on Friday, but a couple days of dryness will return after this; both the EU and the GFS see an additional 0.5-3″ possible for most of the Midwest through the weekend.
The second system that has been advertised then looks to keep things went into early next week, with more rains seen for a large area of the country’s mid-section Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. The EU AI’s week-two forecast has stayed wet, but the EU and GFS ensemble models have trended drier for all but the southern part of the country.
The GFS’s 10–15-day temperature outlook again trended warmer in the east overnight, as warmer than average temps are expected to remain in place now through at least November 15th. We will keep repeating, this doesn’t mean there won’t be cooler days, but the overall pattern will be one of mostly above average temperatures.
Rains pushed further north into Brazil on Wednesday, with totals in Mato Grosso/Para/Tocantins ranging from 0.1-2″. Argentina was again mostly dry save for light/scattered showers in a very small area in the north/northeast.
Forecast continues to show better rains returning for Argentina and southern Brazil over the next three days; totals will generally be less than an inch, but some local areas could receive up to 1-2″. No changes for central/northern Brazil.
Have a great day.
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