Good morning.
And happy first day of November. New month on the calendar, but more of the same light/choppy overnight trading in the corn and soybean markets that has been seen all week is being seen again to start this morning. Prices are in the green and the soybean market has made new highs for the week, but corn futures continue to trade inside of the same small ranges they’ve had since Monday. There remains just three more trading sessions before election results begin getting tallied Tuesday night, and this will be the dominant talking point for everyone from farmers to CEOs of the world’s biggest companies as we get into next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 90-100 points; bean oil gapped higher on the open but the trade was not above yesterday’s high. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up around $1.70/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 160 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
The European Commission further lowered its estimate of the 2024 EU wheat crop by 2 mmt’s to 112.6 mmt’s, and also lowered their export projection from 26.0 mmt’s to 25.0 mmt’s. Corn production was revised lower by 2.1 mmt’s, and barely production was revised lower by 0.6 mmt’s.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report, showed corn planting progress at 34.5% complete, up from last week’s 28.9%; soybean planting was seen at 3.3% complete in the year’s first estimate, and wheat harvest was seen at 7.7% complete, also in the year’s first estimate.
Grain harvest in Ukraine has surpassed the 91% mark as of October 31st according to its ag ministry. Roughly 48 mmt’s of grains have been harvested including 22.3 mmt’s of wheat, 18.3 mmt’s of corn, and 5.6 mmt’s of barley.
USDA’s ag attaché to Turkey said yesterday that it sees curbs on wheat imports likely to continue through the end of 2024, citing “market sources.” Millers were notified early in October that they would only be allowed to import 15 mmt’s of wheat for every 85 mmt’s bought from the Turkish grain board.
Sources in Brazil indicate an ex-executive from Louis Dreyfus Co. and his new company called Balcão Agricola do Brasil plan to begin offering trading and registration of derivatives of corn and soybeans delivered to sites owned by Rumo SA. This practice is common here in the US but would be the first of its kind in Brazil.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 26th totaled 738k tons, which is up nearly 52% from last week. Corn shipments in the week were down 16.4% at 184k tons, and soybean shipments were up 110% from last week at 544k tons.
This morning’s non-farm payrolls report for October is expected to show the US labor market added 113,000 jobs last month, compared to the 254,000 gained in September. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from last month at 4.1%.
Overnight rainfall focused more on the southern part of the Midwest into the Delta, with heaviest totals of 2-3″ seen through parts of LA. The northern part of the Midwest also saw additional moisture of 0.01-0.75″ in the 24-hour period ended 7am central time this morning.
More rains are seen through the weekend for similar areas, with a strip through OK/MO expected to receive upwards of 3″ between now and early Monday morning. Forecasts also continue to see another good rain possibility early next week for most of the Midwest, while scattered showers are also seen for the eastern Corn Belt into the end of next week.
Rainfall returned to Argentina on Thursday, with totals ranging from a tenth to up to 3″ in some places; northern/northeast Brazilian growing regions also saw similar totals, while southern and southcentral regions were mostly dry.
Forecast through the weekend here shows light rain chances through most all of the two country’s growing areas between now and Monday, with the heaviest totals seen in northwest Argentina into Paraguay.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-01-2024
Good morning.
And happy first day of November. New month on the calendar, but more of the same light/choppy overnight trading in the corn and soybean markets that has been seen all week is being seen again to start this morning. Prices are in the green and the soybean market has made new highs for the week, but corn futures continue to trade inside of the same small ranges they’ve had since Monday. There remains just three more trading sessions before election results begin getting tallied Tuesday night, and this will be the dominant talking point for everyone from farmers to CEOs of the world’s biggest companies as we get into next week. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 90-100 points; bean oil gapped higher on the open but the trade was not above yesterday’s high. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up around $1.70/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 160 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points. The S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
The European Commission further lowered its estimate of the 2024 EU wheat crop by 2 mmt’s to 112.6 mmt’s, and also lowered their export projection from 26.0 mmt’s to 25.0 mmt’s. Corn production was revised lower by 2.1 mmt’s, and barely production was revised lower by 0.6 mmt’s.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in a weekly report, showed corn planting progress at 34.5% complete, up from last week’s 28.9%; soybean planting was seen at 3.3% complete in the year’s first estimate, and wheat harvest was seen at 7.7% complete, also in the year’s first estimate.
Grain harvest in Ukraine has surpassed the 91% mark as of October 31st according to its ag ministry. Roughly 48 mmt’s of grains have been harvested including 22.3 mmt’s of wheat, 18.3 mmt’s of corn, and 5.6 mmt’s of barley.
USDA’s ag attaché to Turkey said yesterday that it sees curbs on wheat imports likely to continue through the end of 2024, citing “market sources.” Millers were notified early in October that they would only be allowed to import 15 mmt’s of wheat for every 85 mmt’s bought from the Turkish grain board.
Sources in Brazil indicate an ex-executive from Louis Dreyfus Co. and his new company called Balcão Agricola do Brasil plan to begin offering trading and registration of derivatives of corn and soybeans delivered to sites owned by Rumo SA. This practice is common here in the US but would be the first of its kind in Brazil.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 26th totaled 738k tons, which is up nearly 52% from last week. Corn shipments in the week were down 16.4% at 184k tons, and soybean shipments were up 110% from last week at 544k tons.
This morning’s non-farm payrolls report for October is expected to show the US labor market added 113,000 jobs last month, compared to the 254,000 gained in September. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from last month at 4.1%.
Overnight rainfall focused more on the southern part of the Midwest into the Delta, with heaviest totals of 2-3″ seen through parts of LA. The northern part of the Midwest also saw additional moisture of 0.01-0.75″ in the 24-hour period ended 7am central time this morning.
More rains are seen through the weekend for similar areas, with a strip through OK/MO expected to receive upwards of 3″ between now and early Monday morning. Forecasts also continue to see another good rain possibility early next week for most of the Midwest, while scattered showers are also seen for the eastern Corn Belt into the end of next week.
Rainfall returned to Argentina on Thursday, with totals ranging from a tenth to up to 3″ in some places; northern/northeast Brazilian growing regions also saw similar totals, while southern and southcentral regions were mostly dry.
Forecast through the weekend here shows light rain chances through most all of the two country’s growing areas between now and Monday, with the heaviest totals seen in northwest Argentina into Paraguay.
Have a great day.
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