Good morning.
A new week and a new month at the CBOT have started similarly to how the previous ones ended, with all three of the corn, soybean and wheat markets trading in the green to start Monday morning. Pricewise, the beans and wheat have already traded above last week’s highs in the Sunday night session, indicating bullish momentum from previous days’ happenings with China will likely be the most prominent feature again in the market this week, at least early on. Like we talked about going home on Friday, the Chinese can say they’re going to buy whatever they want, but history would show that there’s at least some sort of chance these purchases don’t materialize as planned, which means a sizeable amount of unknown will continue to exist on the US balance sheets, particularly as it pertains the beans. Otherwise, topic of interest number two will continue to be the newly started growing season in South America, which to this point, has gone off pretty much without a hitch. Regardless of what China does or doesn’t do with the US, a 180 MMT crop out of Brazil in another several months will limit global rally potential on the margin and will be what the bears continue to point to should the current rally move forward. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-7 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down to 20-30 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points.
According to the CME Group, there were another 207 contracts of November beans assigned for delivery this morning, along with 24 contracts of rough rice.
Not a lot new this morning on the macro front coming out of the weekend, as details regarding Trump’s deal with China continue to trickle out but have not much changed the overall narrative from last week a fact sheet posted by the White House over the weekend seemed to indicate that the Chinese would be buying 12 MMTs of soybeans between now and January 1 (verbiage says “purchase”, not “take delivery”) and that they would be purchasing 25 MMTs in calendar years 2026, 2027 and 2028.
The fact sheet from the White House also indicated that China “will suspend” (we find the verbiage that it’s going to happen vs it has already happened as interesting) all of the retaliatory tariff and non-tariff trade measures that have been announced since March 4th, and that it would also be removing countermeasures made in retaliation for US Section 301 investigations on China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors.
Only other real macro headline from the over the weekend was an announcement out of OPEC+ that eight members, led by Saudi Arabia, would be increasing their daily output by around 137,000 bbls/day in the month of December, which matches output increases seen during both October and November. However, the announcement was also followed by reports that the group would then be taking a pause on increases from January through March, signaling a bit of a shifting tone.
The USDA’s Ag Statistics Board (ASB) posted a notice late on Friday last week indicating that NASS would be releasing some key monthly data points in November, though they would possibly be delayed from their original release dates. The list of reports expected in the month includes the November WASDE and Crop Production updates on November 14th (Nov 10th originally), and also the November Cattle on Feed report on November 21st (original day).
Along similar lines, the USDA was also scheduled to release their monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushing reports later this afternoon, but these reports are expected to continue being delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the reports to be released; traders would’ve expected September US soybean crush at 203.6 mil bu (up 9.2% from last year) and September US corn grind for ethanol at 438.5 mil bu (down 2% from last year). Bean oil stocks are seen at 1.700 bil lbs., which would be up 9.6%. NOPA previously pegged US Sep crush at 197.9 mil bu, with bean oil stocks at 1.243 bil lbs.
Cash sources familiar with the situation say Chinese buyers made price inquiries into US wheat offers over the weekend for the first time in more than a year, seeking cargoes for the December-February time period. Export data shows China hasn’t purchased any US wheat since October of last year, and the news comes amid an overall decline of more than 60% on China’s total wheat imports in the season so far compared to last year.
Following trade talks between China and Canada on Friday last week, China’s most active rapeseed (canola) futures contracts posted their best day of gains in nearly three months on Monday as the two sides left meetings without an actual trade truce. Said a Chinese source over the weekend, “There is little sign that relations between China and Canada have improved, which is supporting the rise in canola prices.” Carney also added over the weekend that an immediate tariff reduction between the two sides was never a realistic outcome for the meeting.
South American company Inpasa, already a stalwart in the South American ethanol space, announced plans late last week for a 2.4 billion reais investment for a new ethanol plant in Rio Verde, Goias, which would be the company’s first in the state and the ninth overall. Plans show the plant is expected to have processing capacity of around 2 MMTs of grain per year and that it would produce around 1 billion liters of ethanol and around 490,000 tons of DDGs.
Weekend weather across the Midwest was largely benign, with just light precipitation of generally less than a half inch noted through parts of TN and KY, while the northern part of the region also picked up light/scattered precipitation with totals generally less than a tenth. Temperatures remained on the cooler side, but models continue to be in good agreement that this changes again through the week this week, with most all of the US expected to see daytime highs that are on the warmer side of normal.
The models don’t see a lot in the way of precipitation for the Midwest this week, with the best moisture chances continuing to be in the far northern part of the region and into Canada, as well as in the far northeast. Models do see better rainfall chances then returning though for the eastern part of the region by the weekend and into the first part of next week, but totals look to be generally scattered and spotty, which is keeping our confidence in the solution low.
Weekend weather was mostly as expected in South America as well, with satellite data showing good rains of a half inch to 4 inches through most of southern and south-central Brazil. Argentina, meanwhile, was expectedly drier, with just light precipitation noted through the west-central part of the country while growing areas in the east were mostly dry.
For this week, frost concerns in Argentina’s southeast have mostly abated aside from Thursday morning, which will need monitoring. On the precipitation side, models see a rain even here Tuesday into Wednesday which will benefit crops, with heavier moisture then expected to expand north into the back half of the week. For Brazil, models see continued rains through the central part of the country the next several days, with the south seeing more rainfall by the end of the week also and through the weekend. Threats for both countries remain largely minimal.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-03-2025
Good morning.
A new week and a new month at the CBOT have started similarly to how the previous ones ended, with all three of the corn, soybean and wheat markets trading in the green to start Monday morning. Pricewise, the beans and wheat have already traded above last week’s highs in the Sunday night session, indicating bullish momentum from previous days’ happenings with China will likely be the most prominent feature again in the market this week, at least early on. Like we talked about going home on Friday, the Chinese can say they’re going to buy whatever they want, but history would show that there’s at least some sort of chance these purchases don’t materialize as planned, which means a sizeable amount of unknown will continue to exist on the US balance sheets, particularly as it pertains the beans. Otherwise, topic of interest number two will continue to be the newly started growing season in South America, which to this point, has gone off pretty much without a hitch. Regardless of what China does or doesn’t do with the US, a 180 MMT crop out of Brazil in another several months will limit global rally potential on the margin and will be what the bears continue to point to should the current rally move forward. Corn futures to start Monday morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-7 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down to 20-30 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are down 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 40 points, and the US$ index is up 10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points.
According to the CME Group, there were another 207 contracts of November beans assigned for delivery this morning, along with 24 contracts of rough rice.
Not a lot new this morning on the macro front coming out of the weekend, as details regarding Trump’s deal with China continue to trickle out but have not much changed the overall narrative from last week a fact sheet posted by the White House over the weekend seemed to indicate that the Chinese would be buying 12 MMTs of soybeans between now and January 1 (verbiage says “purchase”, not “take delivery”) and that they would be purchasing 25 MMTs in calendar years 2026, 2027 and 2028.
The fact sheet from the White House also indicated that China “will suspend” (we find the verbiage that it’s going to happen vs it has already happened as interesting) all of the retaliatory tariff and non-tariff trade measures that have been announced since March 4th, and that it would also be removing countermeasures made in retaliation for US Section 301 investigations on China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors.
Only other real macro headline from the over the weekend was an announcement out of OPEC+ that eight members, led by Saudi Arabia, would be increasing their daily output by around 137,000 bbls/day in the month of December, which matches output increases seen during both October and November. However, the announcement was also followed by reports that the group would then be taking a pause on increases from January through March, signaling a bit of a shifting tone.
The USDA’s Ag Statistics Board (ASB) posted a notice late on Friday last week indicating that NASS would be releasing some key monthly data points in November, though they would possibly be delayed from their original release dates. The list of reports expected in the month includes the November WASDE and Crop Production updates on November 14th (Nov 10th originally), and also the November Cattle on Feed report on November 21st (original day).
Along similar lines, the USDA was also scheduled to release their monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushing reports later this afternoon, but these reports are expected to continue being delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows the reports to be released; traders would’ve expected September US soybean crush at 203.6 mil bu (up 9.2% from last year) and September US corn grind for ethanol at 438.5 mil bu (down 2% from last year). Bean oil stocks are seen at 1.700 bil lbs., which would be up 9.6%. NOPA previously pegged US Sep crush at 197.9 mil bu, with bean oil stocks at 1.243 bil lbs.
Cash sources familiar with the situation say Chinese buyers made price inquiries into US wheat offers over the weekend for the first time in more than a year, seeking cargoes for the December-February time period. Export data shows China hasn’t purchased any US wheat since October of last year, and the news comes amid an overall decline of more than 60% on China’s total wheat imports in the season so far compared to last year.
Following trade talks between China and Canada on Friday last week, China’s most active rapeseed (canola) futures contracts posted their best day of gains in nearly three months on Monday as the two sides left meetings without an actual trade truce. Said a Chinese source over the weekend, “There is little sign that relations between China and Canada have improved, which is supporting the rise in canola prices.” Carney also added over the weekend that an immediate tariff reduction between the two sides was never a realistic outcome for the meeting.
South American company Inpasa, already a stalwart in the South American ethanol space, announced plans late last week for a 2.4 billion reais investment for a new ethanol plant in Rio Verde, Goias, which would be the company’s first in the state and the ninth overall. Plans show the plant is expected to have processing capacity of around 2 MMTs of grain per year and that it would produce around 1 billion liters of ethanol and around 490,000 tons of DDGs.
Weekend weather across the Midwest was largely benign, with just light precipitation of generally less than a half inch noted through parts of TN and KY, while the northern part of the region also picked up light/scattered precipitation with totals generally less than a tenth. Temperatures remained on the cooler side, but models continue to be in good agreement that this changes again through the week this week, with most all of the US expected to see daytime highs that are on the warmer side of normal.
The models don’t see a lot in the way of precipitation for the Midwest this week, with the best moisture chances continuing to be in the far northern part of the region and into Canada, as well as in the far northeast. Models do see better rainfall chances then returning though for the eastern part of the region by the weekend and into the first part of next week, but totals look to be generally scattered and spotty, which is keeping our confidence in the solution low.
Weekend weather was mostly as expected in South America as well, with satellite data showing good rains of a half inch to 4 inches through most of southern and south-central Brazil. Argentina, meanwhile, was expectedly drier, with just light precipitation noted through the west-central part of the country while growing areas in the east were mostly dry.
For this week, frost concerns in Argentina’s southeast have mostly abated aside from Thursday morning, which will need monitoring. On the precipitation side, models see a rain even here Tuesday into Wednesday which will benefit crops, with heavier moisture then expected to expand north into the back half of the week. For Brazil, models see continued rains through the central part of the country the next several days, with the south seeing more rainfall by the end of the week also and through the weekend. Threats for both countries remain largely minimal.
Have a great day.
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