Good morning.
Ag markets are mostly lower this morning in what has been a classic turn-around-Tuesday so far in the overnight trade, with the beans, the downside leader and the wheat market the strongest of the bunch, trading either side of unchanged on minimal fresh new news. The soybean chart has become quickly overbought, which is giving reason for the morning’s pull back. Otherwise, it would appear the stage is set for another day of back-and-forth on the China situation, with little new expected ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs and traders still not fully convinced that what China says is what China will do. We have little insight as to when the latter might change but feel there’s a chance that it might not be soon which will keep uncertainty and volatility elevated. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 12-16 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton and soybean oil is down 50-60 points. Outside markets are mostly lower also, crude oil futures are down around 80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 280 points, and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is down 70 points, and the NASDAQ is down 370 points.
Brazil’s CONAB showed soybean planting pace across the country in their weekly update at 47.1% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 53.3% last year and the five-year average of 54.7%. Summer corn planting was seen at 42.8% complete, which compares to 42.1% complete last year and the five-year average of 44.5%.
Private US commodity brokerage on Monday released updated crop production estimates for the US corn and soybean crops. The group said they see corn production at 16.748 bil bu vs 16.737 bil previously, with national average yield at 186.0 bu/acre; for soybeans, they pegged production at 4.303 bil bu vs 4.326 bil previously and said they see national average yield at 53.6 bu/acre vs 53.9 previous. The USDA said over the weekend that they would give a WASDE/crop production update on November 14th, but it is unclear whether this is dependent on the government reopening by then.
Meanwhile, the group also pegged new crop production estimates for Brazil at 107 MMTs for the second corn crop and 178.9 MMTs for the soybean crop; if accurate, the corn figure would be down around 4% from last year, while the soybean crop would be up 0.1%.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon but estimates for the still-delayed weekly crop progress update yesterday afternoon showed traders assume corn harvest progress has reached 83% complete, while soybean harvest is assumed to have reached 91% complete; winter wheat planting is seen at 91% complete also. Of note, the last weekly crop progress update last year came on November 12th.
Reuters reported on Monday that Chinese soybean buyers had purchased as many as 20 cargoes from Brazil over the past several days, as prices here eased on headlines that US supplies would possibly again start flowing into the Asian country. Three cash sources familiar with the situation said 10 of the cargoes were for December delivery and the other 10 were for delivery in March-July, or in other words, 10 were likely old crop and 10 were likely new crop.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon on Monday raised their Russian wheat export forecast 0.4 MMTs to 43.8 MMTs, noting a recovery in import demand and an ongoing increase in crop production forecasts. To that end, the group also raised their production estimate another 2.8 MMTs to 87.8 MMTs.
Weather forecasts for the Midwest are little changed this morning from Monday’s runs, with this morning’s EU solution showing mostly dry weather across the US the next several days before light/scattered precipitation returns to the eastern US Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will stay warmer than normal through the week, with a low-pressure system still expected to drop temperatures significantly over the weekend and into the first part of next week.
Also notable on the forecast for the next 5-10 days – and we mention this begrudgingly – is that the GFS model this morning is attempting to put down what would be the first band of snowfall for the Midwest of the season over the weekend and early next week, with light accumulations possible across SD and IA and then through northern IL and into MI. Daytime highs return to the 50’s by the middle of next week, meaning any possible accumulation will likely be short-lived.
Not a lot new of note on the forecast for South America this morning either, as models continue to be in good agreement on good rains impacting most all of the ag areas in both Brazil and Argentina at some point between now and the end of the week. Heavier rains are still seen returning to southern Brazil and northern Argentina then by the weekend and into next week, with there still being no sign this morning that precipitation abates for either country anytime real soon. Cool weather in Argentina has been less than ideal, but otherwise, growers couldn’t ask for a much better start to the growing season.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-04-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets are mostly lower this morning in what has been a classic turn-around-Tuesday so far in the overnight trade, with the beans, the downside leader and the wheat market the strongest of the bunch, trading either side of unchanged on minimal fresh new news. The soybean chart has become quickly overbought, which is giving reason for the morning’s pull back. Otherwise, it would appear the stage is set for another day of back-and-forth on the China situation, with little new expected ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs and traders still not fully convinced that what China says is what China will do. We have little insight as to when the latter might change but feel there’s a chance that it might not be soon which will keep uncertainty and volatility elevated. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 12-16 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $3/ton and soybean oil is down 50-60 points. Outside markets are mostly lower also, crude oil futures are down around 80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 280 points, and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is down 70 points, and the NASDAQ is down 370 points.
Brazil’s CONAB showed soybean planting pace across the country in their weekly update at 47.1% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 53.3% last year and the five-year average of 54.7%. Summer corn planting was seen at 42.8% complete, which compares to 42.1% complete last year and the five-year average of 44.5%.
Private US commodity brokerage on Monday released updated crop production estimates for the US corn and soybean crops. The group said they see corn production at 16.748 bil bu vs 16.737 bil previously, with national average yield at 186.0 bu/acre; for soybeans, they pegged production at 4.303 bil bu vs 4.326 bil previously and said they see national average yield at 53.6 bu/acre vs 53.9 previous. The USDA said over the weekend that they would give a WASDE/crop production update on November 14th, but it is unclear whether this is dependent on the government reopening by then.
Meanwhile, the group also pegged new crop production estimates for Brazil at 107 MMTs for the second corn crop and 178.9 MMTs for the soybean crop; if accurate, the corn figure would be down around 4% from last year, while the soybean crop would be up 0.1%.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon but estimates for the still-delayed weekly crop progress update yesterday afternoon showed traders assume corn harvest progress has reached 83% complete, while soybean harvest is assumed to have reached 91% complete; winter wheat planting is seen at 91% complete also. Of note, the last weekly crop progress update last year came on November 12th.
Reuters reported on Monday that Chinese soybean buyers had purchased as many as 20 cargoes from Brazil over the past several days, as prices here eased on headlines that US supplies would possibly again start flowing into the Asian country. Three cash sources familiar with the situation said 10 of the cargoes were for December delivery and the other 10 were for delivery in March-July, or in other words, 10 were likely old crop and 10 were likely new crop.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon on Monday raised their Russian wheat export forecast 0.4 MMTs to 43.8 MMTs, noting a recovery in import demand and an ongoing increase in crop production forecasts. To that end, the group also raised their production estimate another 2.8 MMTs to 87.8 MMTs.
Weather forecasts for the Midwest are little changed this morning from Monday’s runs, with this morning’s EU solution showing mostly dry weather across the US the next several days before light/scattered precipitation returns to the eastern US Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures will stay warmer than normal through the week, with a low-pressure system still expected to drop temperatures significantly over the weekend and into the first part of next week.
Also notable on the forecast for the next 5-10 days – and we mention this begrudgingly – is that the GFS model this morning is attempting to put down what would be the first band of snowfall for the Midwest of the season over the weekend and early next week, with light accumulations possible across SD and IA and then through northern IL and into MI. Daytime highs return to the 50’s by the middle of next week, meaning any possible accumulation will likely be short-lived.
Not a lot new of note on the forecast for South America this morning either, as models continue to be in good agreement on good rains impacting most all of the ag areas in both Brazil and Argentina at some point between now and the end of the week. Heavier rains are still seen returning to southern Brazil and northern Argentina then by the weekend and into next week, with there still being no sign this morning that precipitation abates for either country anytime real soon. Cool weather in Argentina has been less than ideal, but otherwise, growers couldn’t ask for a much better start to the growing season.
Have a great day.
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