Good morning.
Choppy remains the word at the CBOT to start Wednesday, with the overnight session seeming to indicate another wide-ranging day of trade in the soybean market, while the grains have been quieter and in lower volume as cash confirmation remains lacking and there continues to be little new in terms of details on the agreement with China. Privates are giving crop updates this week, but with nothing from the USDA to either confirm or deny these figures, the context with which they’ve been provided has led to a mostly muted reaction in terms of prices. The big crop is priced in for the most part, with it being our opinion that the only potential market move from here based on crops in the US would be a rally based on sharply lower yields in the final January report; otherwise, supply-side focus has nearly entirely shifted back south of the equator for the season. Corn futures start mid-week are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly lower, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA, expected at its normal 9:30am central time, is expected to show average daily production in the US for the week ending October 31st in a range of 1.071-1.115 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 22.00-22.55 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be similar to those seen last week.
Chinese sources confirmed on Wednesday that Beijing would be suspending retaliatory tariffs on US imports, which includes farm products. The State Council’s tariff commission said it would be dropping the up to 15% measures it had imposed on certain ag products beginning November 10th but added that 10% tariffs introduced in response to Trump’s Liberation Day measures would remain in place. This would leave the tariff level on US soybeans at 13%, which if accurate, would keep them priced above those out of South America into next year.
Traders in India see the country’s rapeseed planted area expanding by some 7-8% in the 2025/26 season compared to the year prior, which if accurate, would be a new record. India planted 8.93 million hectares to rapeseed and mustard seed last year, with data for this year showing the country had already planted some 4.2 million hectares, which would be some 14% more than what was planted on the same day last year. Sources say the increases are the result of good rains in recent weeks that have increased soil moisture levels, as well as increased demand from China due to their ongoing trade spat with Canada.
Weekly export data from the European Commission, which is still incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year to date stand at 8 MMTs as of November 2nd, which compared to 8.3 MMTs through the same period last year. Barely exports at 3.8 MMTs are up 117% from last year, and corn imports at 5.4 MMTs are down 26% from last year.
The Russian Grain Union lobby group said on Wednesday that the Russian Government is considering a grain export quota of 20 MMTs for the second half of the marketing year that runs from mid-February through June. Last year, that quota was set at 10.6 MMTs and applied only to wheat and meslin, but the draft document seen for this year indicated that the government was now considering the inclusion of corn and barely in the quota also.
The Supreme Court is expected to begin hearing arguments over the legality of President Trump’s trade tariffs this morning around 9am central time. The case involves three lawsuits brought by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 US sates, who are mostly Democratic led. The Supreme Court typically takes months to make rulings on such cases, but the Trump administration has requested an expedited ruling be made in this case; that said, it remains unclear as to when a ruling is expected.
Recent comments out of both President Trump and the White House on the trade front indicate progress is being made with India, with Trump and PM Modi speaking regularly, while progress is also being made with Switzerland following recent talks that culminated in plans for USTR Greer to have ongoing direct discussions directly with Swiss leaders regarding trade and broader economic cooperation.
Midwest weather forecasts are like yesterday’s runs this morning, with the models continuing to be in good agreement on mostly warm/dry conditions lingering through the end of the week before a low pressure system sweeps in from Canada and provides a sharp drop-off in temperatures, as well as rain/snow chances for a strip through the central Midwest and into the eastern Midwest Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Then into next week, warmer air returns for the most part by Tuesday/Wednesday while precipitation chances through the 14th look minimal.
Argentina is having a hard time getting the forecast to keep rains in the southeastern growing regions in the short term, but otherwise, there continues to be little new on the forecasts here either, with the EU model this morning showing around an inch of rainfall for the western half of the country between now and Friday, while rains don’t look to expand back east until the back half of next week.
Brazil, meanwhile, continues to see little to nothing of note in its forecast, as models see regular rainfall continuing to impact most all of the country’s growing regions over the next two weeks and into the back half of November. Temperatures also look to stay on either side of average for the most part, which like we’ve said all week, keeps threats from a weather standpoint mostly non-existent.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-05-2025
Good morning.
Choppy remains the word at the CBOT to start Wednesday, with the overnight session seeming to indicate another wide-ranging day of trade in the soybean market, while the grains have been quieter and in lower volume as cash confirmation remains lacking and there continues to be little new in terms of details on the agreement with China. Privates are giving crop updates this week, but with nothing from the USDA to either confirm or deny these figures, the context with which they’ve been provided has led to a mostly muted reaction in terms of prices. The big crop is priced in for the most part, with it being our opinion that the only potential market move from here based on crops in the US would be a rally based on sharply lower yields in the final January report; otherwise, supply-side focus has nearly entirely shifted back south of the equator for the season. Corn futures start mid-week are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly lower, crude oil futures are down around 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged and the US$ index is down 5 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA, expected at its normal 9:30am central time, is expected to show average daily production in the US for the week ending October 31st in a range of 1.071-1.115 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 22.00-22.55 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be similar to those seen last week.
Chinese sources confirmed on Wednesday that Beijing would be suspending retaliatory tariffs on US imports, which includes farm products. The State Council’s tariff commission said it would be dropping the up to 15% measures it had imposed on certain ag products beginning November 10th but added that 10% tariffs introduced in response to Trump’s Liberation Day measures would remain in place. This would leave the tariff level on US soybeans at 13%, which if accurate, would keep them priced above those out of South America into next year.
Traders in India see the country’s rapeseed planted area expanding by some 7-8% in the 2025/26 season compared to the year prior, which if accurate, would be a new record. India planted 8.93 million hectares to rapeseed and mustard seed last year, with data for this year showing the country had already planted some 4.2 million hectares, which would be some 14% more than what was planted on the same day last year. Sources say the increases are the result of good rains in recent weeks that have increased soil moisture levels, as well as increased demand from China due to their ongoing trade spat with Canada.
Weekly export data from the European Commission, which is still incomplete due to ongoing technical issues, showed the bloc’s soft wheat exports in the current marketing year to date stand at 8 MMTs as of November 2nd, which compared to 8.3 MMTs through the same period last year. Barely exports at 3.8 MMTs are up 117% from last year, and corn imports at 5.4 MMTs are down 26% from last year.
The Russian Grain Union lobby group said on Wednesday that the Russian Government is considering a grain export quota of 20 MMTs for the second half of the marketing year that runs from mid-February through June. Last year, that quota was set at 10.6 MMTs and applied only to wheat and meslin, but the draft document seen for this year indicated that the government was now considering the inclusion of corn and barely in the quota also.
The Supreme Court is expected to begin hearing arguments over the legality of President Trump’s trade tariffs this morning around 9am central time. The case involves three lawsuits brought by businesses affected by the tariffs and 12 US sates, who are mostly Democratic led. The Supreme Court typically takes months to make rulings on such cases, but the Trump administration has requested an expedited ruling be made in this case; that said, it remains unclear as to when a ruling is expected.
Recent comments out of both President Trump and the White House on the trade front indicate progress is being made with India, with Trump and PM Modi speaking regularly, while progress is also being made with Switzerland following recent talks that culminated in plans for USTR Greer to have ongoing direct discussions directly with Swiss leaders regarding trade and broader economic cooperation.
Midwest weather forecasts are like yesterday’s runs this morning, with the models continuing to be in good agreement on mostly warm/dry conditions lingering through the end of the week before a low pressure system sweeps in from Canada and provides a sharp drop-off in temperatures, as well as rain/snow chances for a strip through the central Midwest and into the eastern Midwest Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Then into next week, warmer air returns for the most part by Tuesday/Wednesday while precipitation chances through the 14th look minimal.
Argentina is having a hard time getting the forecast to keep rains in the southeastern growing regions in the short term, but otherwise, there continues to be little new on the forecasts here either, with the EU model this morning showing around an inch of rainfall for the western half of the country between now and Friday, while rains don’t look to expand back east until the back half of next week.
Brazil, meanwhile, continues to see little to nothing of note in its forecast, as models see regular rainfall continuing to impact most all of the country’s growing regions over the next two weeks and into the back half of November. Temperatures also look to stay on either side of average for the most part, which like we’ve said all week, keeps threats from a weather standpoint mostly non-existent.
Have a great day.
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