Grain Comments: 11.03.26

Good morning. Overnight ag markets have again been on the quiet side into midterm election day, with futures marginally lower and in light volume on what feels like a similar price environment to what was had on Monday. The election has caused spec money flows to slow noticeably this week, and without some sort of new geopolitical headline during the day today, we imagine Tuesday trade at the CBOT stays similarly choppy to yesterday. US harvest is wrapping up, and this is slowly leading traders to try and figure out what the next market story is going to be as the calendar nears the start of 2027. We sound like a broken record, but the markets need some sort of spark to ignite the next move in prices; otherwise, sideways trade seems to be the path of least of resistance for now, with the typical holiday lull in activity looming just ahead.

Corn futures to start Tuesday trade in Chicago are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: API Energy Stocks

• USDA released monthly soybean and grain crush data Monday afternoon – the reports showed US soybean crush during the month of September at 199 mil bu, which was a new calendar year low and the lowest figure since August of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month were seen at 1.458 bil lbs, down 14% on the month and down 17% from the same month last year. Corn used for ethanol was seen at 438 mil bu, down 9% from August but up 1% from a year ago.

• At the state level on crop progress, IA, SD and WI all saw 19% improvements in corn harvest progress over the last week, while ND and OH were up 18% and MN was up 17%. For soybeans, MO and OH were up 14% on the week, IN, IA and MI were up 12%, and KS was up 11%. To view our crop progress maps, please click here.

• Ukraine’s Ag Minister said this week that alternate shipping routes had handled about 47% of the country’s ag exports during the first 27 days of October, which compares to around 50% during September. The Minister said 45-50% was the maximum without deep-water ports in the greater Odessa region, with trucks accounting for about 3 or 4%, while rail and the Danube roughly split the remaining portion.

• There continues to be talk this week of a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Turkey to discuss peace proposals to end the war, but to date, no meeting has been set and there seem to still be notable differences between the two sides. President Zelensky reiterated on Monday that he wouldn’t be giving Russia the Donbas region or Crimea, which remains one of the broader sticking points in any sort of ceasefire proposal.

• Crude oil futures plunged some 7+% on Monday on headlines that the US and Iran were more willing to pursue a diplomatic solution to their ongoing conflict, though the market’s recovering a portion of those losses this morning as there has been no follow-through reports. A resumption of military action following today’s election continues to be a real risk, and could quickly reverse Monday’s price sentiments in the days ahead.

• China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday that its International Trade Representative met with a US ag delegation, with the two sides said to have exchanged views on economic and trade relations, as well as bilateral cooperation in agriculture. The meeting signals that dialogue between the two sides has remained active ahead of what is expected to be another meeting between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in another couple weeks.