Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has once again been lower as the sun comes up Wednesday morning, with the beans and products pacing the declines and the grains in tow, similar to the situation seen to start the week on Monday. Confirmation that some sort of meeting is set to take place between the US/Russia/Ukraine next week, along with another increase in US crop estimates from the private sector, are the new bearish inputs to speak of this morning, but overall, its ongoing long liquidation and the shifting of focus from the US growing season to the South American one that will remain the main focus in the grain and soy markets into the end of 2026 and start of 2027. Markets are oversold and while there’s seemingly no end in sight to the downward pressure today, we are still of the opinion that we see some sort of seasonal bounce – albeit potentially a small one – before the end of the year.
Corn futures at mid-week are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week ending October 30th between 1.10-1.13 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.523-24.730 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be down from last week.
The StoneX yield adjustments, if accurate, would put final US corn production at 16.203 bil bu (down just 3% from 2025/26) and would put final US soybean production at 4.725 bil bu (up 11% from 2025/26).
President Trump said this week that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran, though risks seemingly remain elevated due to ongoing hostilities in the region and as reports of new vessel attacks continue to pop up regularly. New news out of the region this week has otherwise been mostly lacking.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week that trade talks with the US were progressing but remain unfinished ahead of planned meetings with President Trump at the APEC Summit in China later this month. The two sides have been discussing a new trade agreement for months now, with the broader USMCA agreement put into effect during Trump’s first term still undergoing a lengthy review process.
Ukraine reported this week that total grain harvest has reached 75.1% complete at 44.6 MMTs, though the total includes 26.26 MMTs of wheat and just 10.78 MMTs of corn. Corn harvest is seen at just 37.5% complete, which is well behind average.
The Canadian Pacific Kansas City railway (CPKC) said this week that it set new monthly records for grain and grain product transportation across the US and Canada during October. The group said that it moved 2.65 MMTs of grain during the month in the US alone, with another 3.26 MMTs moved through Canada.
This week’s central US low looks to continue working through the northeast today, but things look to otherwise calm down a bit for the rest of the week and into the weekend again for the Midwest. Other than the left-over moisture from this storm in the north, the models see little if any rainfall chances for the rest of the region through the weekend and into next week, while temperatures will continue to run generally above average.
Nighttime lows will drop off this weekend and bring some frost potential back to the upper Midwest, but the models’ warm things back up then generally speaking into next week, as highs look to get back into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Tues/Weds next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-04-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has once again been lower as the sun comes up Wednesday morning, with the beans and products pacing the declines and the grains in tow, similar to the situation seen to start the week on Monday. Confirmation that some sort of meeting is set to take place between the US/Russia/Ukraine next week, along with another increase in US crop estimates from the private sector, are the new bearish inputs to speak of this morning, but overall, its ongoing long liquidation and the shifting of focus from the US growing season to the South American one that will remain the main focus in the grain and soy markets into the end of 2026 and start of 2027. Markets are oversold and while there’s seemingly no end in sight to the downward pressure today, we are still of the opinion that we see some sort of seasonal bounce – albeit potentially a small one – before the end of the year.
Corn futures at mid-week are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week ending October 30th between 1.10-1.13 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.523-24.730 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be down from last week.
The StoneX yield adjustments, if accurate, would put final US corn production at 16.203 bil bu (down just 3% from 2025/26) and would put final US soybean production at 4.725 bil bu (up 11% from 2025/26).
President Trump said this week that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran, though risks seemingly remain elevated due to ongoing hostilities in the region and as reports of new vessel attacks continue to pop up regularly. New news out of the region this week has otherwise been mostly lacking.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week that trade talks with the US were progressing but remain unfinished ahead of planned meetings with President Trump at the APEC Summit in China later this month. The two sides have been discussing a new trade agreement for months now, with the broader USMCA agreement put into effect during Trump’s first term still undergoing a lengthy review process.
Ukraine reported this week that total grain harvest has reached 75.1% complete at 44.6 MMTs, though the total includes 26.26 MMTs of wheat and just 10.78 MMTs of corn. Corn harvest is seen at just 37.5% complete, which is well behind average.
The Canadian Pacific Kansas City railway (CPKC) said this week that it set new monthly records for grain and grain product transportation across the US and Canada during October. The group said that it moved 2.65 MMTs of grain during the month in the US alone, with another 3.26 MMTs moved through Canada.
This week’s central US low looks to continue working through the northeast today, but things look to otherwise calm down a bit for the rest of the week and into the weekend again for the Midwest. Other than the left-over moisture from this storm in the north, the models see little if any rainfall chances for the rest of the region through the weekend and into next week, while temperatures will continue to run generally above average.
Nighttime lows will drop off this weekend and bring some frost potential back to the upper Midwest, but the models’ warm things back up then generally speaking into next week, as highs look to get back into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Tues/Weds next week.
Have a great day.
View All News >