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Grain Comments: 11-08-2023

Good morning

Grains and soybeans are higher this morning with soybean futures trading at their highest level since mid-September. The Dollar Index is firmer; crude oil futures continue to move lower with losses this morning of another $1 to $1.25/barrel. Soymeal and soy oil futures are headed in opposite directions – soymeal made new contract highs overnight while soy oil futures are lower and are now trading at the lowest level in 5 months.

Brazilian weather remains concerning as the growing season starts. The persistent wet weather in southern Brazil looks like it will continue another ten days while central and northern Brazil will be dry the next week to ten days with above normal temperatures.

The lack of soil moisture in northern Brazil is slowing soybean planting. Late soybean planting dates will likely adversely affect safrinha corn yields or prevent some acres of second season corn from being planted.

Beneficial rains in recent weeks have improved Argentina’s corn and soybean prospects. 23/24 soybean production is projected to be nearly double that of the 22/23 drought reduced output.

The weekly EIA energy production report will not be released today as the agency is upgrading its software. The reports, including ethanol production and inventory levels, are expected to resume next Wednesday.

Favorable Midwest weather is allowing producers to make good progress harvesting remaining corn and soybean acres this week, but corn harvest in the eastern Midwest is being slowed by high moisture levels that require most bushels to be dried.

The USDA has announced soybean sales totaling 367,150 MTs to China or unknown destinations the past three days. Most of the sales are expected to be shipped from the PNW, but some will be sourced from the Gulf.

Gulf soybean premiums were stronger yesterday in reaction to the increase in demand. CIF values for corn were steady.

The USDA will release the November crop report tomorrow. Conab will also release its monthly estimate of Brazilian production early tomorrow morning.

Have a great day.

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